2021 Draft Prospects Thread

[Jack Brickman]

I don't think either one is a stud.

I'm lower on Godwin than most, but I have him closer to Deebo Samuel than Stefon Diggs. I'd put him very close to AJ Brown. Brown's bigger and stronger. Godwin's quicker and shiftier, both excel when they're in the slot, and their biggest contributing factor is what they do after the ball is in their hands.

You make me choose between Godwin and Ridley, and it depends on role. If it's an X or Z, I'll take Ridley. I think he's better at getting open on longer routes. If it's someone that can line up in the slot, I'd prefer Godwin.

Again... I have no problem accepting that some of my takes are controversial I really try to evaluate based on talent instead of situation. I'm fine never owning Chris Godwin in fantasy. He's a guy I'm always going to be lower than the market on. Juju and Calvin Ridley are going to be in that mold as well.

I understand what you're saying.

But you're wrong.

I can kind of see the Deebo/Godwin comparison from an athleticism standpoint, but Godwin really isn't used in that gadget role at all. He has had literally one rushing attempt each of the past two years. Deebo to me from an in-game standpoint is more Curtis Samuel than Chris Godwin. They're both YAC guys, but Godwin is much more of a downfield threat. Godwin had over 1250 air yards in 2019*. Deebo had less than half that. Godwin was 26th in the league in air yards in 2019 despite missing two games, and likely would have finished above DK Metcalf in the late teens had he played the full slate, and that's on a comparable number of targets. Godwin is a weapon you can deploy all over the field because he's a good route runner, an elite athlete, and he makes contested catches (#3 in the league in 2019 according to Player Profiler). Bruce Arians compared him favorably to Larry Fitzgerald when he first took the job in Tampa, and deployed him in that role in 2019.

*I'm using 2019 because both guys were banged up a lot this year and Deebo missed over half the season. I also watched a lot more of Tampa last year because I had Chris Godwin in basically every fantasy league, whereas this year I didn't own many Bucs because I didn't like where they were being drafted. Godwin was a bargain in 2019 when he was going in the fifth and was the most obvious breakout candidate I've ever seen, but I'm not taking him in the second or early third in 2020 when he has to share targets with Mike Evans and a loaded Tampa receiving group.

 

[DJTJ]

The guys over at (not kidding) Real Bucs Talk break him down very well here.


I agree he could stand to add ten pounds to become a full-time 4-3 defensive end instead of a guy who flexes from the line to space... but that's not a reason to pass on a legit defensive end. Porter Gustin put on 20 pounds in a year to become a legit end. Just as importantly, he needs to further develop his counter moves and handwork.

I figured out who he is. He’s Trey Hendrickson. It’s why I don’t like him. Great video though.

 

[AZ_]

Per the Toney/Darden discussion earlier, it’s a crowded field right now. Teams are coaching these WRs up to fill NFL roles at the college level.

It shows, there’s a ton of talent here.

 

[AZ_]

I’d genuinely consider him at 26, I would certainly love him in R2.

I’d assume he could come off the board anywhere in that range, but I definitely think he can be a fit here.

 

[Lee]

Per the Toney/Darden discussion earlier, it’s a crowded field right now. Teams are coaching these WRs up to fill NFL roles at the college level.

It shows, there’s a ton of talent here.

I am biased, but i think Rondale Moore is going to be a beast if he gets into the right offense in the NFL.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I understand what you're saying.

But you're wrong.

I can kind of see the Deebo/Godwin comparison from an athleticism standpoint, but Godwin really isn't used in that gadget role at all. He has had literally one rushing attempt each of the past two years. Deebo to me from an in-game standpoint is more Curtis Samuel than Chris Godwin. They're both YAC guys, but Godwin is much more of a downfield threat. Godwin had over 1250 air yards in 2019*. Deebo had less than half that. Godwin was 26th in the league in air yards in 2019 despite missing two games, and likely would have finished above DK Metcalf in the late teens had he played the full slate, and that's on a comparable number of targets. Godwin is a weapon you can deploy all over the field because he's a good route runner, an elite athlete, and he makes contested catches (#3 in the league in 2019 according to Player Profiler). Bruce Arians compared him favorably to Larry Fitzgerald when he first took the job in Tampa, and deployed him in that role in 2019.

*I'm using 2019 because both guys were banged up a lot this year and Deebo missed over half the season. I also watched a lot more of Tampa last year because I had Chris Godwin in basically every fantasy league, whereas this year I didn't own many Bucs because I didn't like where they were being drafted. Godwin was a bargain in 2019 when he was going in the fifth and was the most obvious breakout candidate I've ever seen, but I'm not taking him in the second or early third in 2020 when he has to share targets with Mike Evans and a loaded Tampa receiving group.

First off, I love this response.

I understand that Godwin has air yards, but I don't think he does that role exceptionally well... if that makes any sense. I think he is good after the catch, so I'd use him in a slot role to maximize that ability. Same with guys like Deebo, AJ Brown, Jarvis, Aiyuk, Duvernay... lots of guys who are best used in the slot to take advantage of yac ability. I would put Godwin and AJ Brown at the top of that group.

I also think there's a lot to be said about the correlation between air yards and Jameis... that whole Bucs offense gets an asterisk for me during the Jameis years.

 

[Jack Brickman]

First off, I love this response.

I understand that Godwin has air yards, but I don't think he does that role exceptionally well... if that makes any sense. I think he is good after the catch, so I'd use him in a slot role to maximize that ability. Same with guys like Deebo, AJ Brown, Jarvis, Aiyuk, Duvernay... lots of guys who are best used in the slot to take advantage of yac ability. I would put Godwin and AJ Brown at the top of that group.

I also think there's a lot to be said about the correlation between air yards and Jameis... that whole Bucs offense gets an asterisk for me during the Jameis years.

I agree that he's best utilized in the slot+ role, so I guess my issue is with the notion that guys can't be alpha receivers from that position. My basic definition of an alpha receiver is a guy who can consistently command targets regardless of competition level. Chris Godwin received more targets than Mike Evans two years ago, and he would have gotten more last year as well if he had played the full slate. Hell, just look at their weekly targets last year. Godwin is very consistently not below six, with only two regular season games where he got less (I think he may have left early in one of them). Evans has five regular season games where he commanded four or less targets.

If you expand that to include the playoffs, Godwin has one game with less than six targets compared to two from Evans, including a turd of a performance where he had three yards on one catch (it was a touchdown, but still) and the Super Bowl, where he received exactly one target. To be fair, though, Godwin did nothing in that game either, not that either was really needed since the Chiefs couldn't score any points.

At any rate, Godwin is the alpha there now. Just like AJ Brown is the alpha receiver on the Titans. He came in and stole Corey Davis' lunch, then sent him packing. Godwin had a slower road given that was was competing with an established Mike Evans as he entered the league, but he ended up in the same place.

 

[Randolphkeys]

There's definitely plays in the playbook for a punt returner/gadget player, but let's not pretend it's a huge need. Jo Jo Natson plays were a wrinkle rather than a productive grouping.

Never forget lessons taught by Tavon Austin. That's a third day of the draft role in the NFL.

 

[Jack Brickman]

There's definitely plays in the playbook for a punt returner/gadget player, but let's not pretend it's a huge need. Jo Jo Natson plays were a wrinkle rather than a productive grouping.

Never forget lessons taught by Tavon Austin. That's a third day of the draft role in the NFL.

I will say that one of the things that tends to translate to NFL wide receiver success is dynamism in college, which takes into account rushing and special teams production. The basic idea is that you want to look for receivers who produced in various roles in college because it typically indicates that they are able to be dynamic in space. You don't get assigned to return kicks or punts or get work in the run game as a receiver if you can't make guys miss.

Obviously, you can't look at this in a vacuum, though. It's an additional stat to inform your analysis of top WR prospects.

I'd say you want a wide receiver who ticks as many of the following boxes as possible:

• High dominator rating in college
• Low breakout age
• Elite athleticism
• Dynamic
• Early declare
• Good route runner
• Adequate NFL size
• Good size/speed ratio (otherwise known as speed score)

 

[Randolphkeys]

I will say that one of the things that tends to translate to NFL wide receiver success is dynamism in college, which takes into account rushing and special teams production. The basic idea is that you want to look for receivers who produced in various roles in college because it typically indicates that they are able to be dynamic in space. You don't get assigned to return kicks or punts or get work in the run game as a receiver if you can't make guys miss.

Obviously, you can't look at this in a vacuum, though. It's an additional stat to inform your analysis of top WR prospects.

I'd say you want a wide receiver who ticks as many of the following boxes as possible:

• High dominator rating in college
• Low breakout age
• Elite athleticism
• Dynamic
• Early declare
• Good route runner
• Adequate NFL size
• Good size/speed ratio (otherwise known as speed score)

I've kept out of the receiver talk the past few days because I'm of a different opinion than many posters and Twitter staples, but aligned with plenty of journalists: This isn't the year for a high pick on a receiver for the Browns.

They will have Landry and OBJ back in 2021. They got better production than draft slot out of DPJ, with upside to improve. On the flip side, the defensive backfield and defensive line are in critical condition.

I'm not going to analyze receivers heavily in this draft, because I'm not aligned with some fans on the importance of the position this year for this team.

 

[Jack Brickman]

I'd say you want a wide receiver who ticks as many of the following boxes as possible:

• High dominator rating in college
• Low breakout age
• Elite athleticism
• Dynamic
• Early declare
• Good route runner
• Adequate NFL size
• Good size/speed ratio (otherwise known as speed score)

Just in case anyone is unfamiliar with why these things matter...

Dominator rating is basically the percentage of an offense that a player commands. As you can imagine, the higher percentage, the better. You want guys who were their team's best player in college.

Breakout age is the age at which a player first achieves a 20% dominator rating. Essentially, the idea is that dominating younger is better. You want guys who were dominant the second they stepped on their college field, as it indicates that they were good enough to perform against older competition.

Elite athleticism is self-explanatory. It's probably the least important thing listed, but you still need guys to meet certain benchmarks. A receiver who runs a 4.8 isn't making it in the NFL.

I already explained wide receiver dynamism in the previous post.

You want guys who declare early. Top-tier prospects who declare early are just more likely to succeed than guys who are older when they enter the draft. This goes hand in hand with breakout age. Guys who breakout as seniors are statistically less likely to succeed than guys who broke out younger, assuming, of course, that they continued to play at a high level in subsequent seasons.

Route running is similarly self-explanatory. I don't think you need to be an amazing route runner to be an elite NFL wide receiver, but when combined with a lot of the other factors I listed, it helps. The more ways a team can deploy a receiver downfield, the better.

We've talked about size in this thread already. Size matters. The history of guys under a certain weight threshold panning out isn't great. I'll rope this in with speed score, as they are related. The thought is that you want guys who are fast for their size. Thus, a guy who is 6'3" and 220 pounds that runs a 4.4 is more impressive than a guy who is 5'9", 175 that does the same. This is why I'm not a huge Devonta Smith fan. He's clearly under 180 pounds, possibly by more than five pounds, and he's probably not going to be as fast as a guy that size needs to be from a historical standpoint to succeed in the NFL. He could buck the odds. Guys do that sometimes. Outliers exist and always will. But smart money doesn't bet on outliers early in the NFL draft.

I've kept out of the receiver talk the past few days because I'm of a different opinion than many posters and Twitter staples, but plenty of journalists: This isn't the year for a high pick on a receiver for the Browns.

They will have Landry and OBJ back in 2021. They got better production than draft slot out of DPJ, with upside to improve. On the flip side, the defensive backfield and defensive line are in critical condition.

I'm not going to analyze receivers heavily in this draft, because I'm not aligned with some fans on the importance of the position this year for this team.

I'd be fine with the team taking a WR on day two. Day one should be defense unless something crazy happens. Like, if Ja'Marr Chase is there, which he won't be, you obviously pull the trigger. But that's basically the only scenario in which you take a skill position player in the first round. I think there will be some quality guys available in rounds two and three, though, and wouldn't hate the team drafting a high-upside receiver there.

I just think it's something we might consider addressing because I think it's likely we move on from one of OBJ or Landry, and potentially both, next offseason.

Anyway, I've been active as fuck here today. I guess that's what happens when I start watching tape on guys and getting a feel for the prospects in this class.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I'd be fine with the team taking a WR on day two.

I won't be. Fantasy football fans will be. By all means keep posting offensive skill position breakdowns. Good talk.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I agree that he's best utilized in the slot+ role, so I guess my issue is with the notion that guys can't be alpha receivers from that position. My basic definition of an alpha receiver is a guy who can consistently command targets regardless of competition level. Chris Godwin received more targets than Mike Evans two years ago, and he would have gotten more last year as well if he had played the full slate. Hell, just look at their weekly targets last year. Godwin is very consistently not below six, with only two regular season games where he got less (I think he may have left early in one of them). Evans has five regular season games where he commanded four or less targets.

If you expand that to include the playoffs, Godwin has one game with less than six targets compared to two from Evans, including a turd of a performance where he had three yards on one catch (it was a touchdown, but still) and the Super Bowl, where he received exactly one target. To be fair, though, Godwin did nothing in that game either, not that either was really needed since the Chiefs couldn't score any points.

At any rate, Godwin is the alpha there now. Just like AJ Brown is the alpha receiver on the Titans. He came in and stole Corey Davis' lunch, then sent him packing. Godwin had a slower road given that was was competing with an established Mike Evans as he entered the league, but he ended up in the same place.

So... I also don't like Mike Evans. I think that entire Bucs receiving corps is overrated, with the exception of Scotty Miller, who I felt was underrated.

I'd take Courtland Sutton and Kenny Golladay over Mike Evans every day. If that makes me a fucking idiot, so be it.

I agree that slot guys can be primary receivers for their team. Obviously the Brady guys come to mind--Welker and Edelman. I'd argue that Landry has been that for the Browns during his time here. Cooper Kupp might be the best receiver in LA. But, I'm not paying first-round premiums for those guys because I don't feel there's enough separation between the elite talents and a guy like Cole Beasley or someone else you can just easily acquire. The players who can dominate from the slot? Eh.... they sometimes are available. The players who can dominate on the outside almost never are. Those are the premium players I would be willing to spend for.

I think Godwin is a better receiver than Evans. AJ Brown is certainly a better receiver than Corey Davis. I'm not happily allocating a first round pick, or 12+ million a year to either player. If you make me pick one, I think AJ Brown is a better bet than Chris Godwin due to his size and YAC abilities.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Just in case anyone is unfamiliar with why these things matter...

Dominator rating is basically the percentage of an offense that a player commands. As you can imagine, the higher percentage, the better. You want guys who were their team's best player in college.

Breakout age is the age at which a player first achieves a 20% dominator rating. Essentially, the idea is that dominating younger is better. You want guys who were dominant the second they stepped on their college field, as it indicates that they were good enough to perform against older competition.

Elite athleticism is self-explanatory. It's probably the least important thing listed, but you still need guys to meet certain benchmarks. A receiver who runs a 4.8 isn't making it in the NFL.

I already explained wide receiver dynamism in the previous post.

You want guys who declare early. Top-tier prospects who declare early are just more likely to succeed than guys who are older when they enter the draft. This goes hand in hand with breakout age. Guys who breakout as seniors are statistically less likely to succeed than guys who broke out younger, assuming, of course, that they continued to play at a high level in subsequent seasons.

Route running is similarly self-explanatory. I don't think you need to be an amazing route runner to be an elite NFL wide receiver, but when combined with a lot of the other factors I listed, it helps. The more ways a team can deploy a receiver downfield, the better.

We've talked about size in this thread already. Size matters. The history of guys under a certain weight threshold panning out isn't great. I'll rope this in with speed score, as they are related. The thought is that you want guys who are fast for their size. Thus, a guy who is 6'3" and 220 pounds that runs a 4.4 is more impressive than a guy who is 5'9", 175 that does the same. This is why I'm not a huge Devonta Smith fan. He's clearly under 180 pounds, possibly by more than five pounds, and he's probably not going to be as fast as a guy that size needs to be from a historical standpoint to succeed in the NFL. He could buck the odds. Guys do that sometimes. Outliers exist and always will. But smart money doesn't bet on outliers early in the NFL draft.



I'd be fine with the team taking a WR on day two. Day one should be defense unless something crazy happens. Like, if Ja'Marr Chase is there, which he won't be, you obviously pull the trigger. But that's basically the only scenario in which you take a skill position player in the first round. I think there will be some quality guys available in rounds two and three, though, and wouldn't hate the team drafting a high-upside receiver there.

I just think it's something we might consider addressing because I think it's likely we move on from one of OBJ or Landry, and potentially both, next offseason.

Anyway, I've been active as fuck here today. I guess that's what happens when I start watching tape on guys and getting a feel for the prospects in this class.

How did these numbers treat Juju? He broke out at a super young age.

 

[natedagg]

I won't be. Fantasy football fans will be. By all means keep posting offensive skill position breakdowns. Good talk.

I think there’s credence to drafting where you aren’t weak, but instead expensive. I am sure AB has studied what works and what doesn’t, and obviously I don’t mean drafting where we have a cornerstone like baker, but I wouldn’t dismiss any position where contracts are coming up.

I personally will fire my amateur bullet at defensive tackle. A big strong disruptor in the middle means a problem on every play. But I am not wed to the idea.