2021 NBA Draft Safari

[Derek]

Definitely better than if it was the other way around...but...is there any way to explain why he's been more accurate from 3 in close games, other than it's a total fluke? Not opposed to counting his confidence and leadership in his top-5-pick argument, but I don't think his shooting will actually be more accurate on average in closer games against better competition.

Because the 3PA in other games are at a much lower volume and are typically not within the offense. Their offense has basically been a lay-up line in most games this season, so the only non-Kispert 3PA are usually end-of-clock shots.

We've all been around the game enough to know that the role players are typically the ones who get pumped up numbers in the blowouts while the top players have their stat lines suffer. In the tighter games, when the role players get shut down, it's the top guys like Suggs who step up and show who they are.

It just so happens that Suggs is in an unprecedented situation at Gonzaga. Last night was just the second time Gonzaga won a game by less than 10 points. I repeat, LAST NIGHT WAS JUST THE SECOND TIME GONZAGA WON A GAME BY LESS THAN 10 POINTS!!!

 

[Nathan S]

To me, his defense is what makes him go from a good prospect to a great prospect. He's a legit defensive playmaker. His anticipation is next level. Quick hands, great athleticism and size. The block -> fast break last night was awesome, but it's so much more than that. His defensive awareness to know when to double at the perfect time to blindside the offensive player and get a steal before he knows what hit him is special.

I agree that he's kind of good at everything offensively, but maybe not great at one particularly thing. I do think his passing is significantly better than an average first round PG prospect (not quite Lamelo level special, but still very good). With the high BBIQ and ability to control the game offensively, I do think he'll be a huge weapon on both ends of the court.

Completely agree! I love the idea of drafting a great defensive guard, it's just (pleasantly) surprising to me that in the year 2021 we have a guard prospect whose greatest strength is his defense, and he's seriously talked about as a potential top-3 pick in a loaded draft. Would not have expected that.

 

[MD13]

I don't think anyone is particularly low on Suggs, his game is too well rounded for that. The big question is really how much you value his contributions to non-scoring aspects of the game vs the other elite prospects. Would you rank his all-around game higher than an absolutely electric scorer in Green? I tend to lean towards Green but I'll have to think harder about that one.

 

[chrisrich91]

Completely agree! I love the idea of drafting a great defensive guard, it's just (pleasantly) surprising to me that in the year 2021 we have a guard prospect whose greatest strength is his defense, and he's seriously talked about as a potential top-3 pick in a loaded draft. Would not have expected that.

Agree. But I think it’s one thing if you have a very good offensive prospect with no real offensive weakness who plays elite defense VS. an enticing defensive prospect who you are betting on becoming a plus offensive player at the next level.

To me that’s the difference between determining the value of a Jalen Suggs versus a Kris Dunn.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Gonzaga has played 8 games that were decided by 15 points or less this year, here are Suggs's numbers in those games:
18.1 ppg
5.8 rpg
5.1 apg
2.1 steals
3.0 to
49.0% from the field
50.0% on 3's (2.1 makes per game)

EDIT: Missed a game when I was compiling stats

This subset is so small. 8 games is what? 25 shots? Go look at every competition he’s been in, as well as his HS numbers. They all says he’s an uninspiring shooter. This isn’t picking and choosing, go get anything....HS, USABB, AAU, NYBL, whatever.

Will he develop in to a good shooter? Maybe but there is not evidence currently that he will be a consistent one. Can he get hot and make shots? Yes. But every data point thus far has said that once the sample size normalizes, he’s a 30-32% shooter. It’s multiple years and multiple competitions saying the same thing.

I just think he really lacks offensive ceiling. All his data says he does too. Honestly fascinated with how good he ends up being.....as I’m struggling to think of a guy without an elite skill that went on to be a star at the NBA level.

Also, think about how efficienct an elite scorer would and should be in this offense.....where all 4 other players have gravity. The fact that Suggs efficiency numbers just lag guys like Kyrie, Dame, Steph, etc by such a large margin should be semi concerning. I don’t think his situation gets better in the NBA, and he will be subject to defense like he was last night.....where teams are going to dare him to shoot over a defender, which he was unwilling to do and when he is tasked with trying to drive against a defender that has space he has to collapse, he is more easily cut off without having a consistent pull up or floater to go to. I think the banked in 3 covered up him largely being ineffective on the 5-6 possessions he attempted to use down the stretch of that game.

 

[Nathan S]

Agree. But I think it’s one thing if you have a very good offensive prospect with no real offensive weakness who plays elite defense VS. an enticing defensive prospect who you are betting on becoming a plus offensive player at the next level.

To me that’s the difference between determining the value of a Jalen Suggs versus a Kris Dunn.

The other difference is freshman vs. senior. If you're gonna bet on a guy making big leaps offensively, it's smart to bet on a 19 year old rather than a 22 year old.

 

[Derek]

This subset is so small. 8 games is what? 25 shots? Go look at every competition he’s been in, as well as his HS numbers. They all says he’s an uninspiring shooter. This isn’t picking and choosing, go get anything....HS, USABB, AAU, NYBL, whatever.

Will he develop in to a good shooter? Maybe but there is not evidence currently that he will be a consistent one. Can he get hot and make shots? Yes. But every data point thus far has said that once the sample size normalizes, he’s a 30-32% shooter. It’s multiple years and multiple competitions saying the same thing.

I just think he really lacks offensive ceiling. All his data says he does too. Honestly fascinated with how good he ends up being.....as I’m struggling to think of a guy without an elite skill that went on to be a star at the NBA level.

Also, think about how efficienct an elite scorer would and should be in this offense.....where all 4 other players have gravity. The fact that Suggs efficiency numbers just lag guys like Kyrie, Dame, Steph, etc by such a large margin should be semi concerning. I don’t think his situation gets better in the NBA, and he will be subject to defense like he was last night.....where teams are going to dare him to shoot over a defender, which he was unwilling to do and when he is tasked with trying to drive against a defender that has space he has to collapse, he is more easily cut off without having a consistent pull up or floater to go to. I think the banked in 3 covered up him largely being ineffective on the 5-6 possessions he attempt to use down the stretch of that game.

A little over 30 shots, and no disagreement that it's a small sample size, but it's also an unprecedented situation where he's played so few games that have been remotely competitive.

I think you're way off on your offensive assessment of Suggs, and relying too heavily on numbers without involving the eye test at all. The numbers are incredibly useful, but I get the sense you're using them as your sole evaluation method here.

I see him stepping in and being a good offensive player from day 1 in the NBA.

 

[Derek]

Jalen Suggs - NBA Draft Room

Jalen Suggs nba draft scouting report and mock draft ranking. Suggs is a likely one and done for Gonzaga and could be a lottery pick in the 2021 nba draft.

nbadraftroom.com

Suggs plays with good balance, operates within the flow of the game and also has the ability to take over when needed. He’s a lights out 3pt shooter who doesn’t always look for his shot but can score in bunches when needed.

Basketball Recruiting - Jalen Suggs - Player Profiles - ESPN

Learn about Jalen Suggs and other recruit player profiles on RecruitingNation.com.

insider.espn.com

He's a threat with his jumper off both the catch and the dribble

 

[foucault87]

What about Brandon Roy as a guy with no specific elite skill? As I recall, he was good to great at everything but not elite at any one thing. He didn't have killer body control or a 43% 3 from the logo. He was just solid across the board and a solid oasser to boot

 

[I'mWithDan]

Jalen Suggs - NBA Draft Room

Jalen Suggs nba draft scouting report and mock draft ranking. Suggs is a likely one and done for Gonzaga and could be a lottery pick in the 2021 nba draft.

nbadraftroom.com

Basketball Recruiting - Jalen Suggs - Player Profiles - ESPN

Learn about Jalen Suggs and other recruit player profiles on RecruitingNation.com.

insider.espn.com

Was NBAdraftroom’s evaluation of Curry “he literally never misses a shot.” ?

Describing a guy that has spent 2 years shooting in the low 30’s a lights out 3 point shooter seems like a bit of a stretch.

 

[Nathan S]

I don't completely disregard eye-test assessments, but a lot of scouting reports are hilarious. Someone posted a video a while back that said Cade "can guard 1-4 with ease" or something like that

 

[Kiddo]

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[Derek]

Was NBAdraftroom’s evaluation of Curry “he literally never misses a shot.” ?

Describing a guy that has spent 2 years shooting in the low 30’s a lights out 3 point shooter seems like a bit of a stretch.

I'm just trying to explain a viewpoint that seems to have you befuddled. I'd encourage you to go back and watch more of him.

You don't have to agree. I'm just trying to help you understand where we're coming from.

I'll be surprised if Suggs isn't a really good shooter.

 

[Derek]

I don't completely disregard eye-test assessments, but a lot of scouting reports are hilarious. Someone posted a video a while back that said Cade "can guard 1-4 with ease" or something like that

No doubt, and I cherry-picked the reports to find ones that backed up what I was saying. I'm not trying to convince @I'mWithDan, just trying to get him to understand that the assertion that Suggs is a good shooter is not some fringe idea.

 

[Ozone]

Might not have elite upside so I don't see him going in the top 3 if the cavs are so lucky to be picking there but Scott Barnes just looks like the safest pick in the draft . He plays within himself , is a two way FLA ST product . He did a nice job as a point forward and flashed some dribble drive moves offensively that suggest he can become a dynamic 2nd option.
Outside of the upside of a Kuminga who just needs to improve his range % and is the full package long term. Barnes is the guy for this core imo or maybe if they plan on moving a guard in a trade they could see Suggs or Green as the top option. Mobley has to be lower with Allen on the roster than for most GM's Cade is probably going first overall regardless of his athletic limitations and there is little chance anyone else cracks the top 6.
But if the Cavs get pushed into that 7 and out range they could be having to dig deep into their risk machine to strike gold.
Maybe some unlikely name is called who knows but I bet at that scenario they pick the wrong guy