2021 NBA Draft Safari

[I'mWithDan]

Could you do a little ranking of recent 1st round PF/C types? Say...

Okongwu
Jalen Smith
Stewart
Achiuwa
Nnaji

Zion
Hayes
Washington
Bitadze
Clarke
Kabengele

Ayton
Bagley
JJJ
Bamba
Carter Jr.
Mo Wagner

EDIT: By projected shooting of course, not overall

I can go through this list as well but I pulled these guys that are similar to Mobley.

Low attempt, low % 3PT shooters in college.....where you try to figure out which ones are going to be able to shoot.

Guys that fall in the range Mobley does:

Again, I'll have to do some grave digging and see what the curve was.....but it was pretty promising.

It fell just short of being rock solid in its' predictive nature but it was so close that it is worth monitoring. When you look at guys that are only 2 attempts per 100......picking out this many NBA shooters is kind of great.

Give me some time but I can pull down all the guys you have mentioned.

I stopped updating the calculation two years ago...but can insert all the newer guys and see if it is is still standing up, relative to what they have done as shooters.

 

[Lee]

At least Reddish hypothetically has the tools to be a good, versatile wing defender...Duarte and Kispert are gonna be iffy at best against NBA athletes IMO.

I didnt follow Duarte enough to comment.

Kispert should be a good shooter in the NBA. I feel he is a future bench role that comes in to draw gravity toward him in the NBA and hide on defense.

 

[Nathan S]

I can go through this list as well but I pulled these guys that are similar to Mobley.

Low attempt, low % 3PT shooters in college.....where you try to figure out which ones are going to be able to shoot.

Guys that fall in the range Mobley does:

Again, I'll have to do some grave digging and see what the curve was.....but it was pretty promising.

It fell just short of being rock solid in its' predictive nature but it was so close that it is worth monitoring. When you look at guys that are only 2 attempts per 100......picking out this many NBA shooters is kind of great.

Give me some time but I can pull down all the guys you have mentioned.

I stopped updating the calculation two years ago...but can insert all the newer guys and see if it is is still standing up, relative to what they have done as shooters.

Very cool...it'd be good to see more data points around Mobley's 1.55 mark, of course.

It'd also be interesting to see it for Sengun, Garuba, Kuminga, and Kai Jones...

EDIT: Adding Thor to my wish list

 

[Derek]

Tough for me to watch Duarte play, and not see a guy who should be a reliable shooter at the next level. Some of the prettiest shooting mechanics you'll see.

 

[Nathan S]

Tough for me to watch Duarte play, and not see a guy who should be a reliable shooter at the next level. Some of the prettiest shooting mechanics you'll see.

I don't think his shooting is in doubt...his issue is that he doesn't have any other NBA level skills, and at his age he's probably done learning new tricks.

One guy I considered for my top-80 is Jordan Schakel, a 6'6" wing who shot 46% from deep and 91% from the line last season. But I couldn't do it because he's so mediocre at everything else. Duarte brings a little bit more defense, which is enough to lift him into the draftworthy range. But he doesn't appear to be an outstanding multi-positional defender, which is what I'd expect if I'm spending a 1st-round pick on a finished-product roleplayer.

 

[Derek]

I don't think his shooting is in doubt...his issue is that he doesn't have any other NBA level skills, and at his age he's probably done learning new tricks.

One guy I considered for my top-80 is Jordan Schakel, a 6'6" wing who shot 46% from deep and 91% from the line last season. But I couldn't do it because he's so mediocre at everything else. Duarte brings a little bit more defense, which is enough to lift him into the draftworthy range. But he doesn't appear to be an outstanding multi-positional defender, which is what I'd expect if I'm spending a 1st-round pick on a finished-product roleplayer.

Have you watched the Cavs since Altman took over?! For the love of god, just give me a wing who can shoot!

 

[Vipra]

I can go through this list as well but I pulled these guys that are similar to Mobley.

Low attempt, low % 3PT shooters in college.....where you try to figure out which ones are going to be able to shoot.

Guys that fall in the range Mobley does:

Again, I'll have to do some grave digging and see what the curve was.....but it was pretty promising.

It fell just short of being rock solid in its' predictive nature but it was so close that it is worth monitoring. When you look at guys that are only 2 attempts per 100......picking out this many NBA shooters is kind of great.

Give me some time but I can pull down all the guys you have mentioned.

I stopped updating the calculation two years ago...but can insert all the newer guys and see if it is is still standing up, relative to what they have done as shooters.

That's a good one!

With all the AD and KD comparisons, it was good to see a comparison with KAT - although not for all the stats.

Entering the draft, KAT had fewer assists and more fouls per 36, but in almost every other category, KAT leads Mobley (including win shares and BPM). The one difference that stands out is the FT%. Mobley shot 69% to KAT's 81%.
http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=evan-mobley--karl-anthony-towns

 

[Nathan S]

Have you watched the Cavs since Altman took over?! For the love of god, just give me a wing who can shoot!

Sure, I just don't think wings who can shoot are in particularly short supply. Wieskamp, Livers, Grimes, Hauser, Murphy...

 

[I'mWithDan]

Very cool...it'd be good to see more data points around Mobley's 1.55 mark, of course.

It'd also be interesting to see it for Sengun, Garuba, Kuminga, and Kai Jones...

EDIT: Adding Thor to my wish list

Nathan, for your own health and safety. Please sit down before you read any further......

You read SHOP similar to how you would read (I think) your uncertainty scale.

0 means, I think this guy probably is what he is. Postive number, he is an improvement candidate, negative number a regression one. I threw Wright in there to illustrate this. So this is like the Dikembe finger wag on wether it thinks he's a 41% 3PT shooter.

So on Kuminga......highest attempts, 24.6%, a mildly positive number is saying he is unlikely to improve over where he is. Probably is marginally better in the NBA but relative to historical data profiling shooters, it would be more surprising if he were a 35% shooter for example. Ditto for Garuba......probably a low 30's guy.

The guys that stand out are Sengun, Thor and Jones.

Sengun, it is basically screaming he will be an effective NBA 3PT shooter. Like, mark it down. This is saying "there is no chance this guy is only a 20% 3PT shooter."

Kai......it is confident he can be even better. A positive number on an already good 3PT shooter means he is likely a great bet to be at worst, a good NBA shooter.

So when you look at Thor.......6.5 3PA is a good number for a wing.......so the higher the attempts, for a "bad" shooter, the more rare it is to see a positive number like this. So relative to Thor's 3PA, FTA and FT%, it is saying he (thus far) has probably under performed as a shooter. The calculation would give him a very positive outlook when assessing the likelihood he will grow in to one.

Hopefully these explanations made sense. The wing guys you take with a little more grain of salt.......the big men, that number for Sengun is pretty eye opening, relative to the predictive nature for bigs. It is in the range of Collins for example.......who I think few thought was an NBA shooter......who is now 38% on volume.

 

[Derek]

Sure, I just don't think wings who can shoot are in particularly short supply. Wieskamp, Livers, Grimes, Hauser, Murphy...

Two of those guys were on my list, too!

 

[Nathan S]

Nathan, for your own health and safety. Please sit down before you read any further......

You read SHOP similar to how you would read (I think) your uncertainty scale.

0 means, I think this guy probably is what he is. Postive number, he is an improvement candidate, negative number a regression one. I threw Wright in there to illustrate this. So this is like the Dikembe finger wag on wether it thinks he's a 41% 3PT shooter.

So on Kuminga......highest attempts, 24.6%, a mildly positive number is saying he is unlikely to improve over where he is. Probably is marginally better in the NBA but relative to historical data profiling shooters, it would be more surprising if he were a 35% shooter for example. Ditto for Garuba......probably a low 30's guy.

The guys that stand out are Sengun, Thor and Jones.

Sengun, it is basically screaming he will be an effective NBA 3PT shooter. Like, mark it down. This is saying "there is no chance this guy is only a 20% 3PT shooter."

Kai......it is confident he can be even better. A positive number on an already good 3PT shooter means he is likely a great bet to be at worst, a good NBA shooter.

So when you look at Thor.......6.5 3PA is a good number for a wing.......so the higher the attempts, for a "bad" shooter, the more rare it is to see a positive number like this. So relative to Thor's 3PA, FTA and FT%, it is saying he (thus far) has probably under performed as a shooter. The calculation would give him a very positive outlook when assessing the likelihood he will grow in to one.

Hopefully these explanations made sense. The wing guys you take with a little more grain of salt.......the big men, that number for Sengun is pretty eye opening, relative to the predictive nature for bigs. It is in the range of Collins for example.......who I think few thought was an NBA shooter......who is now 38% on volume.

That's wild...I'm a little wary because I bet on Goga's shooting potential a couple years ago, and Wendell Carter's shooting potential the year before that, and got burned on both occasions. But if Mobley and Sengun both end up mid-30's three point shooters, you're looking at bigger Chris Bosh and bigger Kevin Love basically. Easy #1/#2 in either order.

 

[Nathan S]

Two of those guys were on my list, too!

I'm just saying I wouldn't spend assets to move into the teens and draft one of those guys (though if I had to pick one, it'd probably be Murphy for his size or Grimes for his playmaking potential). I'd rather buy a pick in the late 50's and pick up a shooting specialist wing there.

 

[I'mWithDan]

That's wild...I'm a little wary because I bet on Goga's shooting potential a couple years ago, and Wendell Carter's shooting potential the year before that, and got burned on both occasions. But if Mobley and Sengun both end up mid-30's three point shooters, you're looking at bigger Chris Bosh and bigger Kevin Love basically. Easy #1/#2 in either order.

I don't have Goga's numbers but let me get you too excited about Sengun here....this calculation wasn't high on Carter.

It flagged him as a strong regression candidate over his posted college numbers.

 

[Nathan S]

I don't have Goga's numbers but let me get you too excited about Sengun here....this calculation wasn't high on Carter.

Carter and Goga were both 40% 3-point shooters, and I didn't necessarily expect them to keep that up in the NBA, but I figured they'd at least be respectable. No such luck.

 

[Derek]

I'm just saying I wouldn't spend assets to move into the teens and draft one of those guys (though if I had to pick one, it'd probably be Murphy for his size or Grimes for his playmaking potential). I'd rather buy a pick in the late 50's and pick up a shooting specialist wing there.

Duarte was my 4th rated guy (out of 4 guys on that list) if we were to trade up to the teens. So, I think we agree.