2021 NBA Draft Safari

[Adam]

Noticed to guys with not great but not bad numbers there that I mentioned: Terrence Shannon Jr and Ron Harper Jr. everything I read about Shannon raves about his defensive potential so I was surprised to see him have a slight positive offensive rating but negative defensive rating. Good size for a wing.

Harper seems to have a good offensive game inherited from his dad and I wondered if NBA strength and conditioning program took off a little bit if his pudge, if he could improve his defense and at least not be a negative team defender.

These are guys who are not favorites of mine but I’m trying to broaden the field in the event we do end up picking somewhere between 16-23

Harper Jr is really effective considering just how out of shape he is. The draft process will have him rise if he gets a trainer etc.. I like his game, not affraid to use his weight as na advantage

 

[Nathan S]

Noticed to guys with not great but not bad numbers there that I mentioned: Terrence Shannon Jr and Ron Harper Jr. everything I read about Shannon raves about his defensive potential so I was surprised to see him have a slight positive offensive rating but negative defensive rating. Good size for a wing.

Harper seems to have a good offensive game inherited from his dad and I wondered if NBA strength and conditioning program took off a little bit if his pudge, if he could improve his defense and at least not be a negative team defender.

These are guys who are not favorites of mine but I’m trying to broaden the field in the event we do end up picking somewhere between 16-23

Shannon is a pretty well-rounded prospect, but it's surprising that despite his solid length and athleticism he virtually never blocks shots. Offensively he isn't setting the world on fire, but he's a pretty clear #2 option for an elite team, 58% true shooting, doesn't turn the ball over. Not bad.

I should also note that these rankings aren't positionally-adjusted in any way. It's typical for guards to be positive-impact offensive players and negative-impact defensive players, and vice versa. If you classify Shannon as a SG, his defense is probably around average for a first-round SG prospect, and his offense a bit below-average.

 

[MirORich]

Shannon is a pretty well-rounded prospect, but it's surprising that despite his solid length and athleticism he virtually never blocks shots. Offensively he isn't setting the world on fire, but he's a pretty clear #2 option for an elite team, 58% true shooting, doesn't turn the ball over. Not bad.

I should also note that these rankings aren't positionally-adjusted in any way. It's typical for guards to be positive-impact offensive players and negative-impact defensive players, and vice versa. If you classify Shannon as a SG, his defense is probably around average for a first-round SG prospect, and his offense a bit below-average.

I’m guessing that the biggest factor bringing down his rating in your model is his next to nil 0.1 blocks per game?

If so, that doesn’t concern me for a SG/SF the way it would for a PF/C. Sure it would be nice to have a wing defender who got 40-60 blocks per year in an NBA schedule but there are still so many other ways a wing has the opportunity to be a plus impact team and individual defender.

 

[Nathan S]

I’m guessing that the biggest factor bringing down his rating in your model is his next to nil 0.1 blocks per game?

If so, that doesn’t concern me for a SG/SF the way it would for a PF/C. Sure it would be nice to have a wing defender who got 40-60 blocks per year in an NBA schedule but there are still so many other ways a wing has the opportunity to be a plus impact team and individual defender.

Yeah. Another factor that hurts his defensive projection a bit is his low assist rate, as assists are positively correlated with NBA defensive impact (probably because they reflect basketball IQ).

A more extreme example of this is Greg Brown, who has fantastic rebound/steal/block numbers, but a slightly negative defensive projection because he somehow only has 1 assist so far this season.

 

[adam81king]

The nice part of the Cavaliers is they have someone at every position, except PF, thats under 25yrs old and worth keeping right now. We all want a stud to help keep us on the right path, and many have mentioned, but we're in a great situation where we can take the best player available. I wanted Suggs, Mobley, Barnes or Kuminga, but it doesn't seem like we'll be in position to get any of them. Franz Wagner is my choice based on where we're currently slated.

 

[Steve_424]

The nice part of the Cavaliers is they have someone at every position, except PF, thats under 25yrs old and worth keeping right now. We all want a stud to help keep us on the right path, and many have mentioned, but we're in a great situation where we can take the best player available. I wanted Suggs, Mobley, Barnes or Kuminga, but it doesn't seem like we'll be in position to get any of them. Franz Wagner is my choice based on where we're currently slated.

I still think we'll be in the lottery, so you never know.

 

[Nathan S]

Ok...Justin Champagnie has to be considered a probable lottery pick at this point...

 

[Nathan S]

Another pretty quality game so far for Jalen Johnson. Just two dimes in the box score so far, but he's created several high-quality looks for his teammates that just didn't fall. Can tell the defense is really scared of him when he's handling the ball and takes that first step inside the 3-point line.

 

["MVP"]

Another pretty quality game so far for Jalen Johnson. Just two dimes in the box score so far, but he's created several high-quality looks for his teammates that just didn't fall. Can tell the defense is really scared of him when he's handling the ball and takes that first step inside the 3-point line.

Taking over down the stretch too. Impressive stuff.

 

[Nathan S]

Cameron Thomas and Sharife Cooper don't really make sense for the Cavs, but they're adding depth to this class in the lottery, which improves the chances that a talented wing could fall to the Cavs if they're drafting in the 10-16 range. Love to see them filling it up.

 

[MD13]

Cameron Thomas and Sharife Cooper don't really make sense for the Cavs, but they're adding depth to this class in the lottery, which improves the chances that a talented wing could fall to the Cavs if they're drafting in the 10-16 range. Love to see them filling it up.

Nathan, where do you have Kispert? I get all the age/athleticism/playing on a stacked team concerns, but 60/50/90 speaks for itself and just about every team could use shooting like that.

I have my doubts about Cooper given his size and lack of shooting, but that insane production speaks for itself.

 

[Nathan S]

Nathan, where do you have Kispert? I get all the age/athleticism/playing on a stacked team concerns, but 60/50/90 speaks for itself and just about every team could use shooting like that.

I have my doubts about Cooper given his size and lack of shooting, but that insane production speaks for itself.

In the last decade, these are the major-conference freshmen who've averaged 20+ ppg (min. 10 games):

-RJ
-Zion
-Ayton
-Bagley
-Young
-Fultz
-Murray

That's it. That's the whole list. 20 ppg doesn't mean a guy is a lock to be a star, necessarily, but teams love to roll the dice on big scorers.

As for Kispert, my draft rater's not a fan and I tend to agree with its assessment. He's an elite shooter, but what else is he going to be good at? His shooting percentage inside the arc is great, but the eye test and long-term numbers for him don't suggest that he'll be especially potent attacking the rim in the NBA. His steal/block numbers are poor, even compared to other shooting specialist types like Duncan Robinson and Joe Harris.

Especially for the Cavs, although we're in a better place defensively now, it's tough to add a below-average defensive wing considering that it'd be almost suicidal to play him next to the Garland/Sexton backcourt. I'd sacrifice on the shooting just a little and look for a guy with more two-way potential.

 

[pinoycavsfan]

 

[adam81king]

I want to like this guy, but im genuinely worried about his lack of athleticism (and strength). Hes gonna get killed if he plays PG.

 

[Nathan S]

I want to like this guy, but im genuinely worried about his lack of athleticism (and strength). Hes gonna get killed if he plays PG.

Shooting percentages are also poor. 20% from 3, 60% from the line on the season. Late first seems about right to me.