2022 NBA Draft Safari

[Jstock12]

I still don’t see it with Sengun………I’m not sure he would even get off our bench as this team stands right now….He only getting around 15 minutes a game with a bad Rocket team……

Sengun is Jokic-lite!

 

[J_J]

Not sure if anyone has talked about Hyunjung Lee from Davidson - he is 6’7” with great quick release. I’m a huge fan of him and expect his stock to rise because his shooting is impressive.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Not sure if anyone has talked about Hyunjung Lee from Davidson - he is 6’7” with great quick release. I’m a huge fan of him and expect his stock to rise because his shooting is impressive.

His splits are really impressive..

 

[Jstock12]

 

[Benway]

His splits are really impressive..

He's a gymnast too?

 

[I'mWithDan]

Looking at the guys I see trending in mocks, here is the initial litmus test on the 2022 draft.

Probably a couple surprises. My model is in love (to date) with Chet, Murray and really likes a guy who I'm not sure has been talked about much, Kendall Brown.

Paolo......doesn't hate him.....but more lukewarm and he certainly doesn't profile like a traditional #1 pick.

 

[Nathan S]

I will say, I'm feeling pretty good about my top-4 of Sengun/Mobley/Barnes/Wagner (especially considering Sengun's a year younger than the other 3). I've never nailed the top of a draft like this.

Unfortunately I'm a little bit more busy than in previous years so won't be able to post any model results until further notice

 

[adam81king]

I will say, I'm feeling pretty good about my top-4 of Sengun/Mobley/Barnes/Wagner (especially considering Sengun's a year younger than the other 3). I've never nailed the top of a draft like this.

Unfortunately I'm a little bit more busy than in previous years so won't be able to post any model results until further notice

If you had time to bask in your success and post this, you could've posted results of a model.

*I'm kidding

 

[adam81king]

Looking at the guys I see trending in mocks, here is the initial litmus test on the 2022 draft.

Probably a couple surprises. My model is in love (to date) with Chet, Murray and really likes a guy who I'm not sure has been talked about much, Kendall Brown.

Paolo......doesn't hate him.....but more lukewarm and he certainly doesn't profile like a traditional #1 pick.

Can you refresh on what column is the "final number" in your model?

Kendall Brown is a name I've been keeping to myself until I watch him more. His measurables and athletic profile look ideal, but most of what I've read compares him to Shawn Marion, RHJ, etc, when a scoring/shooting wing is a bigger need.

I'm very curious what folks with models say about Max Christie, especially. He's not putting up very good numbers so far, but I'm a big fan of his game and think he could be a big sleeper. How much does the "MSU malaise" hurt him on draft boards?

 

[I'mWithDan]

Can you refresh on what column is the "final number" in your model?

PDIFF is comparing a prospect's total impact, relative to their peers. So how much better or worse are they than a median prospect at their position. The median shifts slightly as more prospects are added but it is roughly around 0.80. So anything above that number tends to be a pool of players where better outcomes occur.

Hustle is adding things like OREB, BLKS, STLS together to form a single per 100 number.

B+S+OR/PF is (probably should just rename) Hustle stats per foul.

When I did a 10 year look at all this data, it isn't predictive but the single stats that stood out were hustle and hustle per foul. So it is at least worth paying attention to.

PDIFF is still the stat that really seems to matter most when trying to bucket prospects....it is the most predictive........but the other two numbers performed the best out of the "individual" stats.......so it is kind of an additional check. So if you see someone like Chet or Murray, who are performing at elite or near elite in all 3 measures, those are just rock solid profiles. Where they kind of just do mostly everything well. They have to keep it up......but early returns are that those two guys are the ones to watch in the lottery.

 

[adam81king]

PDIFF is comparing a prospect's total impact, relative to their peers. So how much better or worse are they than a median prospect at their position. The median shifts slightly as more prospects are added but it is roughly around 0.80. So anything above that number tends to be a pool of players where better outcomes occur.

Hustle is adding things like OREB, BLKS, STLS together to form a single per 100 number.

B+S+OR/PF is (probably should just rename) Hustle stats per foul.

When I did a 10 year look at all this data, it isn't predictive but the single stats that stood out were hustle and hustle per foul. So it is at least worth paying attention to.

PDIFF is still the stat that really seems to matter most when trying to bucket prospects....it is the most predictive........but the other two numbers performed the best out of the "individual" stats.......so it is kind of an additional check. So if you see someone like Chet or Murray, who are performing at elite or near elite in all 3 measures, those are just rock solid profiles. When they kind of just do mostly everything well. They have to keep it up......but early returns are that those two guys are the ones to watch in the lottery.

Appreciate the explanation.

Unfortunately, I can't agree with your numbers on Chet Holmgren, though. Mostly because I want to bunch him, and teammate Drew Timme, in the face everytime I see them, though. I just don't like him. Not even a little bit. And it's all because of his face.

Oh, and has Max Christie made your database, yet?

 

[Smooth]

Where do people fall on Julian Champagnie?

I'm surprised to see him ranked so low on ESPN/NBADraft.net, but in turn rank highly in Tankathan (which places high value on statistical profile)... He seems to have the shooting and game ready profile the Cavs would be looking for, but realize age + size/length for position + upside are likely limiting factors...

 

[MirORich]

Where do people fall on Julian Champagnie?

I'm surprised to see him ranked so low on ESPN/NBADraft.net, but in turn rank highly in Tankathan (which places high value on statistical profile)... He seems to have the shooting and game ready profile the Cavs would be looking for, but realize age + size/length for position + upside are likely limiting factors...

I like him a lot. I am partial to our wing being a plus shooter/low ego scorer. With how much defensive ground Mobley and Allen cover, I would value length, communication, intelligence, and good team defense ability over an absolute lock down wing defender with a negative offensive game.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Where do people fall on Julian Champagnie?

I'm surprised to see him ranked so low on ESPN/NBADraft.net, but in turn rank highly in Tankathan (which places high value on statistical profile)... He seems to have the shooting and game ready profile the Cavs would be looking for, but realize age + size/length for position + upside are likely limiting factors...

He’s a guy I’d like to see at the combine for height/length measurements and athletic testing. If he is a legit 6'8 and long he's one of the guys I'd want in the early to mid-20s. Curious about his lateral quicks too.

Very young for a junior, will turn 21 on draft night, so you'll get a guy who has 3 years of big time college basketball experience but will be a year younger than most of his Junior peers.

Block and steal numbers catch your attention for defensive potential, especially with his low foul rate, and like his brother he is a good rebounder for a perimeter player. Obviously a great shooter from 3 and on volume, good handle of the ball, he runs some of their sets for them too.

I would be a big fan if he was their 1st round pick in the 20s.

 

[Jstock12]

I take it back. Sengun is not Jokic-lite. He's Jokic 2.0