2023 NBA Draft

[Cement]

 

[MirORich]

So we want him in the western conference, right?

I love out guys and would not trade our roster for the at best 75% chance to NOT get him, but in the end, we only ever want to have to face him if it’s in the NBA finals, right?

Let some Western Conference team try to knock him out or wear him down and then if he gets to the finals with his team, so be it.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

So we want him in the western conference, right?

I love out guys and would not trade our roster for the at best 75% chance to NOT get him, but in the end, we only ever want to have to face him if it’s in the NBA finals, right?

Let some Western Conference team try to knock him out or wear him down and then if he gets to the finals with his team, so be it.

So teams are going to trade a lot of their pieces heading into the trade deadline to have a chance of getting Wemb.

Now I wonder what our options would be had we kept our assets in tact. Good players are going to be available early on, and heading into the trade deadline. Going to be interesting to see and I hope we can still get on some interesting deals some how.

 

[MirORich]

So teams are going to trade a lot of their pieces heading into the trade deadline to have a chance of getting Wemb.

Now I wonder what our options would be had we kept our assets in tact. Good players are going to be available early on, and heading into the trade deadline. Going to be interesting to see and I hope we can still get on some interesting deals some how.

I still think we can get in on some interesting deals.

With the number of expirings we have(Windler, Cedi is basically one, LeVert, and Love, these could be trade pieces that the tanking team buys out post trade. Asset wise though yes are limited to second round picks, a swap deal in the years Utah doesn’t have our swap option, Travers, Diop, and maybe if there’s a team that takes a shine to Okoro

But beyond the trade market, once the teams that suck are fully clear and committed for a best shot at VW and to a lesser extent Scoot, there could be some nice buy out market players that we can attempt to get.

The LeVert trade and definitely the Mitchell trade make sense to me so I’m not fretting about the lack of assets. We still have the ability to add to this team and taking advantage of the number of teams that may want to accelerate their tank in january and february will present some opportunities for Koby to get creative.

 

[Lee]

That one highlight aside, it is wild how compact and clean his shooting stroke is.

The only guy I have really ever seen shoot so effortlessly at that size, with technique, is KD.

KD is 5 inches shorter, its insane to think about but Victor to KD is like KD to Jordan. Its insane this kids potential

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

KD is 5 inches shorter, its insane to think about but Victor to KD is like KD to Jordan. Its insane this kids potential

 

[I'mWithDan]

I feel like we are always a prisoner of the moment. LeBron is the best 18 year old basketball player anyone has ever seen and I don't think it is really that close. Maybe someone on this board was alive when Kareem played in high school?

LeBron is just a different echelon of prospect to me. The passing / handling at his size, coupled with his athleticism and physical maturity at 18 is just something we haven't really seen since. Has there been another 18 year old wing that physically dominant? Ever?

If I were a GM, I'd personally take LeBron 10 times out of 10 over Victor......but what do I know.

 

[catfish]

I feel like we are always a prisoner of the moment. LeBron is the best 18 year old basketball player anyone has ever seen and I don't think it is really that close. Maybe someone on this board was alive when Kareem played in high school?

LeBron is just a different echelon of prospect to me. The passing / handling at his size, coupled with his athleticism and physical maturity at 18 is just something we haven't really seen since. Has there been another 18 year old wing that physically dominant? Ever?

If I were a GM, I'd personally take LeBron 10 times out of 10 over Victor......but what do I know.

I thought you were analytic driven? We know that stats at the high school level are less meaningful but I dont know how you can make that assessment. The guy just dominated a different level of competition than Lebron ever played in a real game in high school and yes I know that Lebron scrimmaged with Jordan and other NBAers when he was in high school. There has never been anyone able to do what this Victor can do at his height.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I thought you were analytic driven? We know that stats at the high school level are less meaningful but I dont know how you can make that assessment. The guy just dominated a different level of competition than Lebron ever played in a real game in high school and yes I know that Lebron scrimmaged with Jordan and other NBAers when he was in high school. There has never been anyone able to do what this Victor can do at his height.

I'd honestly have to pull his data (Victor) and see what it looks like. I suspect it won't eclipse Anthony Davis' for example. Would that be enough evidence for you to call AD better? To be honest, I think there is an argument to be made that AD is the best prospect of the last 25 years....so this isn't a trick question or anything. His body obviously never cooperated but AD was the complete package of absolute elite analytical production and absolute elite physical tools.

I think there is some more nuance at the top, I guess is what I am getting at.....it is why I wouldn't say AD is the best prospect either. Seeing a 6'9", 250 LB 18 year old pass like Magic and jump like Vince Carter, is enough for me to consider him the best ever prospect, regardless of what league someone else played in. I don't see an avenue in the modern game for an off ball player to be as valuable as an on ball one. Maybe Victor is the single player that proves that wrong but I doubt it.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

I'd honestly have to pull his data (Victor) and see what it looks like. I suspect it won't eclipse Anthony Davis' for example. Would that be enough evidence for you to call AD better? To be honest, I think there is an argument to be made that AD is the best prospect of the last 25 years....so this isn't a trick question or anything. His body obviously never cooperated but AD was the complete package of absolute elite analytical production and absolute elite physical tools.

I think there is some more nuance at the top, I guess is what I am getting at.....it is why I wouldn't say AD is the best prospect either. Seeing a 6'9", 250 LB 18 year old pass like Magic and jump like Vince Carter, is enough for me to consider him the best ever prospect, regardless of what league someone else played in. I don't see an avenue in the modern game for an off ball player to be as valuable as an on ball one. Maybe Victor is the single player that proves that wrong but I doubt it.

Eason is the best prospect ever and it's not even close.

 

[foucault87]

Eason is the best prospect ever and it's not even close.

Bruh. Anthony. Randolph.

 

[cavsfever]

I feel like we are always a prisoner of the moment. LeBron is the best 18 year old basketball player anyone has ever seen and I don't think it is really that close. Maybe someone on this board was alive when Kareem played in high school?

LeBron is just a different echelon of prospect to me. The passing / handling at his size, coupled with his athleticism and physical maturity at 18 is just something we haven't really seen since. Has there been another 18 year old wing that physically dominant? Ever?

If I were a GM, I'd personally take LeBron 10 times out of 10 over Victor......but what do I know.

Lebron could have legit made an NBA roster in probably 11th grade. Just a wild prospect. I think he might have had the best first season ever for an 18 year old as well - 21-6-5 and 2.3 stocks, on pretty poor shooting but you can’t have everything

 

[-Akronite-]

I hope the guy can stay healthy, it's difficult at his size but the unicorns are evolving and it's exciting to watch.

 

[Lee]

I feel like we are always a prisoner of the moment. LeBron is the best 18 year old basketball player anyone has ever seen and I don't think it is really that close. Maybe someone on this board was alive when Kareem played in high school?

LeBron is just a different echelon of prospect to me. The passing / handling at his size, coupled with his athleticism and physical maturity at 18 is just something we haven't really seen since. Has there been another 18 year old wing that physically dominant? Ever?

If I were a GM, I'd personally take LeBron 10 times out of 10 over Victor......but what do I know.

Best prospect SINCE Lebron, but not over Lebron, i agree.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Did some more litmus testing on the model I have shared often here. Looking at the most valuable players to come out of the possession era in college (2011-2020). The stuff I have been tracking has held up well over the 6 years or so I have been logging possession data.

A refresher.....PDIFF.....Positional Difference. This is just a metric that quantifies total production, against peers who played the same position. I.e. How unique is Kawhi's production vs. other SF's? Median is 0.80......what you continually see is those above median players VASTLY outperform below median players. By how much, see below.

Below is a look at the top 50 players, on a Win Share per year basis, from drafts since 2011.

Top 25 players. Out of the top 25, 23/25 were above median (0.80) producers in PDIFF (92%).

Side note, it's awesome we managed to steal one of the two exceptions.

Players 26-50. 17/25 were above median (0.80) producers in PDIFF (68%). TT just missed the cut.

So total numbers on the top 50 players in Win Shares per year, 40/50 (80%) were above median producers in PDIFF.

This isn't really to pump up the model itself......what I am doing is not completely revolutionary. But it is a reminder that in the draft process, teams CONTINUALLY do not value production as much as they should. The top 25 is evidence of that. Your star outcomes increase exponentially if you draft from the above median pool of players. Do 100% of those players come from that pool? No......they don't but your odds of picking one are much better if you are narrowing your selections to guys who produce excess impact on a possession basis, relative to their positional peers.

Hopefully I did a good job of explaining this.....if not, fire away any questions.