2024 Cleveland Browns Off-Season Thread

[Vee-Rex]

Count me in the minority that thinks Chubb isn't getting cut if he doesn't take the new deal.

Obviously the opportunity presented itself to use the injury & non guaranteed money as leverage when negotiating. We'd be silly not to. Chubb seems secure in who he is and probably would rather not roll the dice, but if he called their bluff I don't think the decision is an easy one for our front office and I'm doubting it happens.

The team seems to have a positive energy in the lockerroom and cutting the beloved Chubb after an injury would be kind of brutal. These players are people - they feel that kind of shit. While we're likely the most hated team in the league by fans and media, the PLAYERS don't seem to care and much. And I think it's important to keep it that way. Not only potentially disrupting the locker room and fan base:

1. We'd be losing a potentially elite RB (maybe he DOES return to form) and starting Jerome Ford? D'Onta Foreman? A rookie? How much does that hurt an offense desperate to shine?

2. Save cap space that is, ultimately, irrelevant in our near-immediate championship window. If there's a player out there we desperately need then we can get him AND keep Chubb. I think we're content with what we have and bringing in more youth from the draft.

The team and Deshaun will likely be better with Chubb than without, and this is a critical enough point in Deshaun's timeline to not take any steps backward if it can be helped.

 

[CBBI]

Count me in the minority that thinks Chubb isn't getting cut if he doesn't take the new deal.

You're almost certainly incorrect here. No offense.

No NFL agent is going to willingly accept a $9.5M pay cut unless they're completely aware the alternative is literally $0. Chubb's agent obviously knew that if he tried to strong arm the Browns, they'd simply strong arm him right back and his client would lose out completely.

And I want to be clear, it's not like the Browns came to Chubb's agent with a threat or an ultimatum "TAKE THIS DEAL OR ELSE" or anything like that.

But once Nick got hurt, the Browns reached out to Chubb's agent and told him something along the lines of "You know we want Nick to remain a Brown, but you also know we can't pay a guy 16M dollars when we have no clue how he's going to respond to the second devastating knee injury of his career going into his age 29 season. Let's figure out a solution that works for both sides."

Both sides knew what this situation was, and it was highly unlikely to ever get contentious. But if it did, Chubb would have been the one who ultimately lost out financially.

 

[CBBI]

2. Save cap space that is, ultimately, irrelevant in our near-immediate championship window. If there's a player out there we desperately need then we can get him AND keep Chubb. I think we're content with what we have and bringing in more youth from the draft.

Also this is the wrong way of thinking about cap space. This decision to reduce Chubb's contract isn't about the 2024 roster at all.

But having an extra $9.5M in rollover cap for 2025 is incredibly valuable given the financial strategy that this team has implemented of continuously borrowing against future increases in the cap with void years and bonus money being pushed into the future.

 

[red.]

 

[Vee-Rex]

You're almost certainly incorrect here. No offense.

No NFL agent is going to willingly accept a $9.5M pay cut unless they're completely aware the alternative is literally $0. Chubb's agent obviously knew that if he tried to strong arm the Browns, they'd simply strong arm him right back and his client would lose out completely.

I don't think it's entirely up to the agent.

I get how the NFL works with player/agent negotiations - but it doesn't necessarily apply to every situation/player. I remember Chubb signing his extension quickly and cleanly when he easily could have pushed for money. He just strikes me as the type of guy who is decisive and wants to move forward.

And I want to be clear, it's not like the Browns came to Chubb's agent with a threat or an ultimatum "TAKE THIS DEAL OR ELSE" or anything like that.

But once Nick got hurt, the Browns reached out to Chubb's agent and told him something along the lines of "You know we want Nick to remain a Brown, but you also know we can't pay a guy 16M dollars when we have no clue how he's going to respond to the second devastating knee injury of his career going into his age 29 season. Let's figure out a solution that works for both sides."

Both sides knew what this situation was, and it was highly unlikely to ever get contentious. But if it did, Chubb would have been the one who ultimately lost out financially.

Yeah, I have no doubt the Browns approached it this way. They wouldn't be competent if they didn't.

I'm saying if Chubb said no, I don't think the Browns pull the trigger.

Also this is the wrong way of thinking about cap space. This decision to reduce Chubb's contract isn't about the 2024 roster at all.

Typically, no. But I don't think we're in a typical situation here. Much like last year was enormously important to secure the job of Stefanski (if we missed the playoffs, I think he could have been fired) - this year is quite similar but for Deshaun. This is the year he and the offense HAS to take a leap - otherwise I could see us gearing towards an exit strategy in 2025's offseason. Not blowing it up, but perhaps moving on from a piece here or there that we might have otherwise kept if we felt we were within our championship window.

But having an extra $9.5M in rollover cap for 2025 is incredibly valuable given the financial strategy that this team has implemented of continuously borrowing against future increases in the cap with void years and bonus money being pushed into the future.

Ideally it would be, right?

Our financial strategy of continuously borrowing against the future is sound and I'm all for it... until our QB crashes. Then we can toss that entire strategy in the trash until we find someone we think can be our franchise QB.

That's the precipice we're on right now for the 2024 season. THIS YEAR we need confirmation on if the QB is the guy we are moving forward with. Which emphasizes the importance of keeping talent on the offensive side of the ball. How bad was our running game last year? I don't think we cut a guy who can be elite at RB for 9 million during such a critical timeframe (2024, 2025) for our roster plans moving forward.

And this is all putting aside just how much Chubb means to this organization. It's easy for us to get lost in numbers and lose perspective of how much of a people business the NFL is. NFLPA rates each team on facilities, medical staff, equipment staff, etc... and teams are scrambling to make upgrades to present a better image of their organization. How they're perceived seems to matter a lot more than we recognize. Cutting Chubb to save 9 million despite the fact that when we last saw him he was at the top of his game is just... yikes. I agree with what Mary Kay put out a couple months back about us not cutting him too.

 

[CBBI]

I'm saying if Chubb said no, I don't think the Browns pull the trigger.

We're never going to truly know the answer to this because it obviously didn't end up and was never going to end up getting to this point. But this just feels like a common sense thing above all else.

If any person is presented with the following two options...

Option A: Make $6M dollars with the chance to make $12M
or
Option B: Make $0 dollars

The fact that up until yesterday that person had a piece of paper that said they were going to make $12M in 2024 isn't going to change the fact that they're always going to take Option A over Option B. Nobody cuts off their nose to spite their face like that.

It's a greasy business, but unfortunately that's what the NFL is since the vast majority of contracts aren't fully guaranteed like they are in other sports.

Typically, no. But I don't think we're in a typical situation here. Much like last year was enormously important to secure the job of Stefanski (if we missed the playoffs, I think he could have been fired) - this year is quite similar but for Deshaun. This is the year he and the offense HAS to take a leap - otherwise I could see us gearing towards an exit strategy in 2025's offseason. Not blowing it up, but perhaps moving on from a piece here or there that we might have otherwise kept if we felt we were within our championship window.

Ideally it would be, right?

Our financial strategy of continuously borrowing against the future is sound and I'm all for it... until our QB crashes. Then we can toss that entire strategy in the trash until we find someone we think can be our franchise QB.

That's the precipice we're on right now for the 2024 season. THIS YEAR we need confirmation on if the QB is the guy we are moving forward with. Which emphasizes the importance of keeping talent on the offensive side of the ball. How bad was our running game last year? I don't think we cut a guy who can be elite at RB for 9 million during such a critical timeframe (2024, 2025) for our roster plans moving forward.

And this is all putting aside just how much Chubb means to this organization. It's easy for us to get lost in numbers and lose perspective of how much of a people business the NFL is. NFLPA rates each team on facilities, medical staff, equipment staff, etc... and teams are scrambling to make upgrades to present a better image of their organization. How they're perceived seems to matter a lot more than we recognize. Cutting Chubb to save 9 million despite the fact that when we last saw him he was at the top of his game is just... yikes. I agree with what Mary Kay put out a couple months back about us not cutting him too.

I get what you're saying, but there's a reason why Chubb made this decision with no fuss. And it certainly isn't because he's a on overly nice guy or has some undying love for the organization or the city.

He took the pay cut because simply had no choice. It certainly wouldn't have been a popular one, but the Browns had all the leverage here and Nick, unfortunately for him, did not.

The Browns have shown IMO they’re willing to make unpopular decisions under this regime. Basically everybody wanted Flacco back and they went another direction a matter of basically a month ago.

I also don't think we can reasonably assume Chubb is going to be elite in 2024. Of course we’re all hoping for that, but it seems more unlikely than likely given the track record of running backs the year after a major knee injury.

 

[Vee-Rex]

We're never going to truly know the answer to this because it obviously didn't end up and was never going to end up getting to this point. But this just feels like a common sense thing above all else.

If any person is presented with the following two options...

Option A: Make $6M dollars with the chance to make $12M
or
Option B: Make $0 dollars

The fact that up until yesterday that person had a piece of paper that said they were going to make $12M in 2024 isn't going to change the fact that they're always going to take Option A over Option B. Nobody cuts off their nose to spite their face like that.

It's a greasy business, but unfortunately that's what the NFL is since the vast majority of contracts aren't fully guaranteed like they are in other sports.

I agree and see why Chubb's side wouldn't take the risk. He's still rehabbing and needs to get paid while doing it. Berry and company knew they had the leverage and capitalized on it.

I get what you're saying, but there's a reason why Chubb made this decision with no fuss. And it certainly isn't because he's a on overly nice guy or has some undying love for the organization or the city.

He took the pay cut because simply had no choice. It certainly wouldn't have been a popular one, but the Browns had all the leverage here and Nick, unfortunately for him, did not.

The Browns have shown IMO they’re willing to make unpopular decisions under this regime. Basically everybody wanted Flacco back and they went another direction a matter of basically a month ago.

Yeah, but Flacco is not Chubb - not to the fanbase, and certainly not to the players.

I also don't think we can reasonably assume Chubb is going to be elite in 2024. Of course we’re all hoping for that, but it seems more unlikely than likely given the track record of running backs the year after a major knee injury.

I think he's built different... dude is a physical freak. I can see him bouncing back from such an injury better than practically any other RB in the league. But we'll see, could be wrong.

 

[camakazee]

While both sides worked together to find a solution before it ever got to that point, the Browns 100% would have cut Chubb if it got to that point. The NFL is a business and fan favorites get cut every year.

As a Chiefs fan I never expected the team to move on from franchise staples like Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry, or Justin Houston before it was apparent that they were done. In a span of two years all three guys were cut because of some combination of injuries, non-guaranteed money due, and age.

Berry didn’t play again but Houston went on to record 33 more sacks over the next four seasons. Charles was 30 years old coming off of another knee injury and was never the same again. Don’t underestimate that teams will do what’s in their best interest with no remorse. They know the fans will forgive and forget if the team wins, which is all that really matters.

 

[Vee-Rex]

Also consider that Berry and Stefanski are both in lockstep. We just brought in Duce Staley as RB coach.

How does Stefanski feel about losing Chubb for 9 million? Is Stefanski like, "YEAH, let's save that money and roll it over. Forget about my personal relationship with Chubb and what he potentially (since he was hurt) offers to my offense."

I doubt it. And I doubt Berry would force the issue if Stefanski and the coaching staff weren't on the same page, not unless he was forced to cut him due to cap constraints, but that wasn't the case. Essentially, cutting Chubb is not just a Berry decision.

 

[CBBI]

Also consider that Berry and Stefanski are both in lockstep. We just brought in Duce Staley as RB coach.

How does Stefanski feel about losing Chubb for 9 million? Is Stefanski like, "YEAH, let's save that money and roll it over. Forget about my personal relationship with Chubb and what he potentially (since he was hurt) offers to my offense."

I doubt it. And I doubt Berry would force the issue if Stefanski and the coaching staff weren't on the same page, not unless he was forced to cut him due to cap constraints, but that wasn't the case. Essentially, cutting Chubb is not just a Berry decision.

Just to be clear, they saved 9.5M on the pay cut.

It would have been more than that had they outright cut him.

 

[Vee-Rex]

While both sides worked together to find a solution before it ever got to that point, the Browns 100% would have cut Chubb if it got to that point. The NFL is a business and fan favorites get cut every year.

As a Chiefs fan I never expected the team to move on from franchise staples like Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry, or Justin Houston before it was apparent that they were done. In a span of two years all three guys were cut because of some combination of injuries, non-guaranteed money due, and age.

Berry didn’t play again but Houston went on to record 33 more sacks over the next four seasons. Charles was 30 years old coming off of another knee injury and was never the same again. Don’t underestimate that teams will do what’s in their best interest with no remorse. They know the fans will forgive and forget if the team wins, which is all that really matters.

I see the parallels you're drawing but I don't know if they apply in this situation.

I'm aware that Chubb can eventually get cut in his career. I just don't think it happens now, even if he refused the contract change. Eric Berry never played again - and missed practically two entire seasons before being let go. Jamaal Charles (one of my favorite RBs ever - extremely underrated) showed noticeable decline AND played 24 games in a 4-year span before being cut. Justin Houston was also showing a decline in production (30 sacks in his last 4 years compared to nearly 48.5 sacks in his first 4 years with the Chiefs) mostly due to injury.

All of those Chiefs players either showed some form of decline via skill/production/availability or in the case of Eric Berry just couldn't play again. Chubb hasn't had his get-back opportunity. The kicker in all of this too is that Houston being cut was to save 15 million (which was a lot more against the cap back then than it is now) because they NEEDED to, and also had Dee Ford to replace him. We don't need to cut Chubb and our backups certainly can't fill in for him the same way. Ford is not an every down back and he proved that last year.

I know Berry is seen as "at any cost" and I love that about him. But there's just lots and lots of variables involved that make me believe he doesn't do it. This roster (especially the offense) has to be intact because this is such a pivotal year in determining our future with QB1, which is part of why we brought back almost every player from last year.

 

[red.]

 

[AZ_]

Fuck yeah on Ladd, Jeudy & Amari + Kevin Stefanski

 

[red.]

 

[camakazee]

I see the parallels you're drawing but I don't know if they apply in this situation.

I'm aware that Chubb can eventually get cut in his career. I just don't think it happens now, even if he refused the contract change. Eric Berry never played again - and missed practically two entire seasons before being let go. Jamaal Charles (one of my favorite RBs ever - extremely underrated) showed noticeable decline AND played 24 games in a 4-year span before being cut. Justin Houston was also showing a decline in production (30 sacks in his last 4 years compared to nearly 48.5 sacks in his first 4 years with the Chiefs) mostly due to injury.

All of those Chiefs players either showed some form of decline via skill/production/availability or in the case of Eric Berry just couldn't play again. Chubb hasn't had his get-back opportunity. The kicker in all of this too is that Houston being cut was to save 15 million (which was a lot more against the cap back then than it is now) because they NEEDED to, and also had Dee Ford to replace him. We don't need to cut Chubb and our backups certainly can't fill in for him the same way. Ford is not an every down back and he proved that last year.

I know Berry is seen as "at any cost" and I love that about him. But there's just lots and lots of variables involved that make me believe he doesn't do it. This roster (especially the offense) has to be intact because this is such a pivotal year in determining our future with QB1, which is part of why we brought back almost every player from last year.

I know the forum I’m on and I don’t want tomatoes thrown at me, but it’s worth acknowledging that Chubb’s situation could be similar to Charles when it’s all said and done. Jamaal was two years older but only had about 100 more career carries than Chubb has now. Both suffered multiple knee injuries and what happened to Chubb makes it very difficult to predict the rest of his career path.

With that being said, I hope Chubb comes back strong and leaves no doubt that he can still be one of the top backs in the league. The Browns do too. But if we think they’re not studying the parallels of other RB’s with similar injuries in their late 20’s and factored that into whether or not they’d cut him, then we’re ignoring the business side of the sport.