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2024 Guardians Regular Season Thread
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From The Athletic's column on Kwan:
Overall, Kwan’s strikeout rate has jumped a bit (10.5 percent to 12.9 percent), though he still ranks in the 90th percentile in the league. His walk rate has tumbled, a result of pitchers challenging him more to prey on his profile as a patient hitter, and a result of Kwan recognizing a pitch he can handle earlier in the count and hacking away. He ranked 57th in pitches per plate appearance last season; he ranks 156th this year.
It’s hard to argue with the results, even if his hard contact rates are no better than usual. He’s swinging more, including on first pitches, when pitchers typically attack the zone because of his history of early-count passiveness. In the middle of May last season, Kwan’s first-pitch swing percentage stood at 5.5 percent, by far the lowest mark in the league. It’s almost triple that percentage now...
He’s had an All-Star-caliber first 85 plate appearances, and he’s dictating more of the action at the plate. Kwan said he wants to ensure that if a pitcher tries to steal an early strike with a meatball down the middle, he’s not letting it sail past and he’s not just trying to bloop it to the outfield for a single.
And Josh Naylor:
Just about every Josh Naylor statistic or metric is glistening this season. But perhaps the most impressive figure: His chase rate has gone from the fourth percentile in the league last year to the 59th percentile in 2024.
Naylor has always been a free swinger, but this season, he has eight walks and eight strikeouts. His strikeout rate ranks in the 95th percentile. That’s quite the profile for a guy who wields 30-homer potential and has registered a .972 OPS.
This is why I harp on chase percentage all the time. Last year Naylor chased 42.6% of pitches out of the zone; his wRC+ was 128. So far this year he's chasing 31% and his wRC+ is 175.
Overall, Kwan’s strikeout rate has jumped a bit (10.5 percent to 12.9 percent), though he still ranks in the 90th percentile in the league. His walk rate has tumbled, a result of pitchers challenging him more to prey on his profile as a patient hitter, and a result of Kwan recognizing a pitch he can handle earlier in the count and hacking away. He ranked 57th in pitches per plate appearance last season; he ranks 156th this year.
It’s hard to argue with the results, even if his hard contact rates are no better than usual. He’s swinging more, including on first pitches, when pitchers typically attack the zone because of his history of early-count passiveness. In the middle of May last season, Kwan’s first-pitch swing percentage stood at 5.5 percent, by far the lowest mark in the league. It’s almost triple that percentage now...
He’s had an All-Star-caliber first 85 plate appearances, and he’s dictating more of the action at the plate. Kwan said he wants to ensure that if a pitcher tries to steal an early strike with a meatball down the middle, he’s not letting it sail past and he’s not just trying to bloop it to the outfield for a single.
And Josh Naylor:
Just about every Josh Naylor statistic or metric is glistening this season. But perhaps the most impressive figure: His chase rate has gone from the fourth percentile in the league last year to the 59th percentile in 2024.
Naylor has always been a free swinger, but this season, he has eight walks and eight strikeouts. His strikeout rate ranks in the 95th percentile. That’s quite the profile for a guy who wields 30-homer potential and has registered a .972 OPS.
This is why I harp on chase percentage all the time. Last year Naylor chased 42.6% of pitches out of the zone; his wRC+ was 128. So far this year he's chasing 31% and his wRC+ is 175.
CDAV45
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Kwan's aggressiveness is easily noticed this season. I expect pitchers to not give him many pitches to pull because that's where he does his damage. The good news is that it doesn't matter where they pitch him because he's going to get the barrel to the ball if it's in any part of the strikezone. If they choose to not throw him strikes then he'll just take his walks like the professional, disciplined hitter he is.
The things you point out with Naylor reinforce the need for patience for guys like Arias, Florial and Rodriguez IMO. The hope is they show marked improvement over time. How much time is the real question I'd say. Josh is 26 as is Florial and Brennan. Arias, Freeman and Rodriguez are all 24. Rocchio is still just 23. If I recall correctly, we had a conversation a year or two ago about the age of 27 being the general age where young players realize their potential...or dont'.
TxBuckeye
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Are we allowed any of that this year?
Alabuckeye
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I think it’s a ruse.
sportscoach
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Avila is out of options, though he does have starting experience...
Cantillo we won't likely see til the second half of the season...
Gaddis is likely never going to be a starter again, just like the move they did with Morgan...
Though, I think we definitely have the bullpen talent coming, that's for sure... Let's see who can step up if we lose TMac..
Even though people won't care, a 5% return for 25 years would take $333 million to $1.13 billion. And, for a real investor like beloved Buffet, you should at least get a 9-10% return (what the stock market gets), if not more. So, the $333 million at 10% return for 25 years would be $3.6 billion (mere $2.9 billion at 9%)!!!! And, people expect him to sell off part of the team to generate extra payroll due to making an extravagant 5% return??? -- This assumes that he did not take money out of the club over the years (which I assume he did to payoff debt used to buy the club) as that would adjust the return. But, just shows how numbers are meaningless unless put into context.
Yet, he probably has done well as a 5% return plus 5% payout each year (if he got $15 million per year at the beginning for his debt and $50 million today on $1 billion which seems high) is nothing to sneeze at.... so maybe he ends up in the 7%-8% return area when all said and done (good but not great).
bushwick_bill
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CDAV45
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Freeman is doing a fantastic job in CF. Kwan is having a helluva start to his season. Florial is posting a 137 OPS+ and getting hot. Laureano and Brennan are struggling right now. Rodriguez is slashing 307/419/532/951 in 62 AB for the Clippers. How long do they continue with what is essentially 6 OFers when you factor Arias in? It's easy to say just trade Laureano, but you'd prefer he be posting better numbers before you try to move him. Seems like Florial is taking Brennan's opportunity away, but the tides can turn quickly in baseball. They might decide to send Will down for a bit.
This is not to take away from this fantastic season to this point, but I'd be a liar if I told you I wasn't curious as to how the OF will shake out.
Seems logical that Laureano and Hedges could be traded/released to make room, but who other than Rodriguez would you promote and how would you get them consitent AB? This is giving me a headache.
We won't even mention the continued battle between Rocchio and Arias.
This is not to take away from this fantastic season to this point, but I'd be a liar if I told you I wasn't curious as to how the OF will shake out.
Seems logical that Laureano and Hedges could be traded/released to make room, but who other than Rodriguez would you promote and how would you get them consitent AB? This is giving me a headache.
We won't even mention the continued battle between Rocchio and Arias.
sportscoach
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I feel like it's a 99.99999999999% chance Hedges is on this roster for the whole season IF we are contending...
When it comes to Laureano, he isn't the captain so I think come June he's gone if he doesn't shape up...