Do you think the starting pitching is good for this team? Is it sustainable to rely on this bullpen to this degree?
Thank you for asking a question about the 2024 Cleveland Guardians, who lead the majors in wins after 25 games. This is apparently not an interesting topic to some on this board, so I appreciate your interest.
The starting pitching is not good enough, IMO. So far they've been getting away with short starts and high ERA's because of an offense that ranks 4th in the majors in runs per game, a bullpen that leads the majors in ERA and WAR, and a defense that ranks 8th in runs saved above average. They also rank 3rd in speed and 8th in baserunning.
The other factor has been an easy schedule so far.
This team is doing everything well except for starting pitching. The starters rank 25th in innings pitched and 26th in FIP, but 12th in ERA, which indicates they are getting a lot of help from their defense and maybe some luck. They're 25th in walk percentage.
The big problem has been losing Bieber and Gavin Williams to injuries plus their decision to trade Aaron Civale last year. This rotation would be one of the best in baseball with Bieber, Williams, and Civale at the top. Civale has a 3.90 ERA after five starts this year.
Also, McKenzie is still trying to find his mojo after missing almost all of last season and Bibee and Logan Allen have regressed.
The good news is that Bibee has allowed 3 earned runs in his last two starts covering 10.1 innings. McKenzie has allowed 3 earned runs in his last two starts covering 9 innings, striking out 13. He's still throwing too many pitches but you can see he's making strides.
Ben Lively has made two starts allowing 3 earned runs in 11.1 innings, striking out 14 against only one walk. Very, very encouraging. Last year he had a 3.76 ERA in 13 starts for the Reds before suffering a pectoral injury.
Xzavion Curry had one emergency start against the Red Sox in Fenway and shut them out on two hits for five innings. He's standing by.
The bad news: No telling when Gavin Williams makes it back and Carlos Carrasco is struggling. Logan Allen has a 5.06 ERA and has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 13 innings.
But if Bibee and McKenzie continue to improve, Lively continues to pitch at the same level as his first two starts, and we get Curry into the rotation we might be OK with those four and either Carrasco or Allen as the 5th starter. I'm not optimistic about either of them.
Allen has had one good start out of five. He tops out at 91 mph and doesn't have an out pitch. Carrasco is 37 and has allowed 13 hits and 7 runs in his last two starts. I think he's running on fumes.
Unless Williams comes back 100% or Allen gets untracked the Guardians will need to trade for a starter. They have nobody in the minors.
