2024 Season | Series #9 | Guardians @ Braves | April 26-28, 2024

[Tondo]

I mean, I think my point was a pretty easy one to follow.

Through his first 172 MLB PAs Rocchio has a .581 OPS, a .083 ISO, has been worth -0.5 fWAR while playing 90% of his defensive innings at a position with built in positive WAR value, has posted a -6 OAA, has a cumulative -1 baserunning value score, and a cumulative -2.8 DRtg.

Through his first 171 MLB PAs Arias had a .685 OPS, a .156 ISO, was worth 0.3 fWAR playing 90% of his defensive innings at 3B, 1B, and RF (1B and RF have negative defensive value built in for WAR), had posted a -1 OAA, had a cumulative 0.4 baserunning value score, and a cumulative -1.9 DRtg.

I know for a fact I can go back to June of last year (and even before then) and find posts from Cats or Tondo or anyone else in favor of Rocchio saying Arias wasn't doing enough and was being given too long of a leash and he sucks and they just don't ever see how he is going to develop into a good MLB player.

This isn't even about Rocchio vs Arias. It's just funny how now it's time for patience with guys when we are playing favorites instead of being impartial.

Creeps back up when Rocchio is at his lowest, makes Rocchio/Arias stat comp, calls out posters and then claims this isn't about Rocchio/Arias and that he really really likes both.

LOL

Rocchio is struggling, yes, this was to be expected. But he's trending up on Statcast. Not enough? No, not enough now, but trending up for me is enough to warrant more playing time, especially since his PA look pretty consistent for a rookie, he goes up there with a plan. He's almost sporting the same OBP like Arias with almost 100 points lower BABIP and no that difference can't be explained away because he hits like a girl and Arias is Gabe Ruth, the EV difference isn't that huge (especially since avg EV isn't even cleared for bunts, which hurts Gimenez or Kwan EV)

And now I'd like you to post Arias' numbers since his runway 300ish PA post Amed trade. It's much worse than his first 171 (flirting sub 600 OPS if my math is right) with a sub 280 OBP.

His "massive power" this season is a 138 ISO fart, which almost all came in 3 Fenway games.

Arias basically is a SS version of Oscar Gonzalez with much worse contact skills. He's see ball hit ball with no plan at the plate and chase prone.

The question thus is: will Rocchio be able to beat that in his next 300 PA? I'd say yes, because a sub 280 OBP and 600 OPS SS isn't the answer anyway.

Runway should go to Rocchio, Arias is burning up his. I'm glad the coaches are giving it to him.
Both can coexist on the roster and have a chance to earn their playing time. Fair game.

 

[33Y0]

Creeps back up when Rocchio is at his lowest, makes Rocchio/Arias stat comp, calls out posters and then claims this isn't about Rocchio/Arias and that he really really likes both.

LOL

Rocchio is struggling, yes, this was to be expected. But he's trending up on Statcast. Not enough? No, not enough now, but trending up for me is enough to warrant more playing time, especially since his PA look pretty consistent for a rookie, he goes up there with a plan. He's almost sporting the same OBP like Arias with almost 100 points lower BABIP and no that difference can't be explained away because he hits like a girl and Arias is Gabe Ruth, the EV difference isn't that huge (especially since avg EV isn't even cleared for bunts, which hurts Gimenez or Kwan EV)

And now I'd like you to post Arias' numbers since his runway 300ish PA post Amed trade. It's much worse than his first 171 (flirting sub 600 OPS if my math is right) with a sub 280 OBP.

His "massive power" this season is a 138 ISO fart, which almost all came in 3 Fenway games.

Arias basically is a SS version of Oscar Gonzalez with much worse contact skills. He's see ball hit ball with no plan at the plate and chase prone.

The question thus is: will Rocchio be able to beat that in his next 300 PA? I'd say yes, because a sub 280 OBP and 600 OPS SS isn't the answer anyway.

Runway should go to Rocchio, Arias is burning up his. I'm glad the coaches are giving it to him.
Both can coexist on the roster and have a chance to earn their playing time. Fair game.

Oscar’s average EV: 88.6
Arias’ average EV: 90.5

Oscar’s average LA: 5.7
Arias’ average LA: 4.2 (although it’s 9.2 this year)

Oscar’s barrel %: 7.4
Arias’ barrel %: 8.6

Oscar’s Hard Hit %: 40.0%
Arias’ Hard Hit %: 43.2%

Oscar’s BB %: 3.6%
Arias’ BB %: 8.0%

Oscar’s K %: 21.5%
Arias’ K %: 31.2%

 

[Tondo]

Oscar’s average EV: 88.6
Arias’ average EV: 90.5

Oscar’s average LA: 5.7
Arias’ average LA: 4.2 (although it’s 9.2 this year)

Oscar’s barrel %: 7.4
Arias’ barrel %: 8.6

Oscar’s Hard Hit %: 40.0%
Arias’ Hard Hit %: 43.2%

Oscar’s BB %: 3.6%
Arias’ BB %: 8.0%

Oscar’s K %: 21.5%
Arias’ K %: 31.2%

You might want to revisit Arias' BB% since he's played regurarly and the league knows he chases. It's around 2% since Amed trade

 

[BimboColesHair]

Again, who said this is Arias vs Rocchio for the 1 millionth time?

The point is it’s funny how we are willing to go through growing pains with no production from players we like vs players we don’t like. That’s all.

Be impartial. That’s always been the issue with this entire situation. People aren’t being impartial.

Not arguing about jettisoning Rocchio, just the opposite. But certain people are good with him getting a longer leash when last year they were crying for someone who had outperformed him at every facet of the game at the same point in their careers to not be given a leash at all and that time was being wasted on him.

If you can’t see why that’s an issue you have dug too deep in on the jock strap to be impartial at this point.

And again. Rocchio’s “better” Statcast data is still horrible Statcast data. He has been brutal and nothing yet points to that changing. Let’s hope we start seeing signs, because contrary to how some here think and argue, I don’t give a rats ass who pans out at the spot. I just want someone to pan out at the spot.

 

[Gson]

Ben Lively versus the Braves.. it's been a while since he's seen them.. but he didn't do very well...

 

[sportscoach]

Creeps back up when Rocchio is at his lowest, makes Rocchio/Arias stat comp, calls out posters and then claims this isn't about Rocchio/Arias and that he really really likes both.

LOL

Rocchio is struggling, yes, this was to be expected. But he's trending up on Statcast. Not enough? No, not enough now, but trending up for me is enough to warrant more playing time, especially since his PA look pretty consistent for a rookie, he goes up there with a plan. He's almost sporting the same OBP like Arias with almost 100 points lower BABIP and no that difference can't be explained away because he hits like a girl and Arias is Gabe Ruth, the EV difference isn't that huge (especially since avg EV isn't even cleared for bunts, which hurts Gimenez or Kwan EV)

And now I'd like you to post Arias' numbers since his runway 300ish PA post Amed trade. It's much worse than his first 171 (flirting sub 600 OPS if my math is right) with a sub 280 OBP.

His "massive power" this season is a 138 ISO fart, which almost all came in 3 Fenway games.

Arias basically is a SS version of Oscar Gonzalez with much worse contact skills. He's see ball hit ball with no plan at the plate and chase prone.

The question thus is: will Rocchio be able to beat that in his next 300 PA? I'd say yes, because a sub 280 OBP and 600 OPS SS isn't the answer anyway.

Runway should go to Rocchio, Arias is burning up his. I'm glad the coaches are giving it to him.
Both can coexist on the roster and have a chance to earn their playing time. Fair game.

One of them...

xBA/xwOBA/xSLG

.253/.295/.403

The other

xBA/xwOBA/xSLG

.234/.284/.329

Can you tell me which is which one from the stats alone?

 

[Tondo]

The impartial part has always been opinion and I've pretty clearly stated it as such. I simply believe in Rocchio's profile (like Gimi's or Kwan's) more than one like Arias.

There have been calls to trade away Gimenez in 2021, to demote Kwan when he struggled for 3-4 weeks for the first time etc. Their mental fortitude got tested and they adjusted, but the foundation was always there. I simply don't see any of that with Arias, never have. He probably looks like a monster in batting practice.

His LA and GB% improvements are noted, that's good. If he can turn himself into an Util masher of the bench and spot starter , I'm all for it. It's simply my opinion that he'll never develop into more because of his multiple shortcomings (Contact, Chase, approach, situational awareness, LA).

Both are getting their shot. I'm not calling for more playing time for Rocchio. The distribution as it is, is a fair and earned one. And coaches just wait for someone to run with it, as they're playing the hot hand.

It's all well, I don't have any beef with that, unless your argument is that Arias should get more playing time.

They're letting it play out. Great. We're all happy and I don't want anyone demoted or DFA'd. Just keep this bunch together, they're bonding and winning.

 

[BimboColesHair]

One of them...

xBA/xwOBA/xSLG

.253/.295/.403

The other

xBA/xwOBA/xSLG

.234/.284/.329

Can you tell me which is which one from the stats alone?

Comparing them now isn’t the argument.

Arias is further along in the MLB than Rocchio. Seen 300 more PAs in the MLB than Rocchio has to this point. A lot can change in 300 PAs, and I hope it does for him.

The issue is how all of a sudden certain people are good with no production and growing pains from an unfinished player vs what they were arguing last year about a player in the same situation.

Why I have always said if the people who carry on this argument would have just come out with “I don’t like Gabriel Arias” it would have saved me a lot of time. Because that’s all this boils down to in reality.

 

[sportscoach]

Comparing them now isn’t the argument.

Arias is further along in the MLB than Rocchio. Seen 300 more PAs in the MLB than Rocchio has to this point. A lot can change in 300 PAs, and I hope it does for him.

The issue is how all of a sudden certain people are good with no production and growing pains from an unfinished player vs what they were arguing last year about a player in the same situation.

Why I have always said if the people who carry on this argument would have just come out with “I don’t like Gabriel Arias” it would have saved me a lot of time. Because that’s all this boils down to in reality.

I don't care which one on paper takes the SS spot as long as one does... Arias though does make a way better utility man...

I feel like we can replace Rocchio way easier than Arias on paper... We have drafted a lot of contact over power types into the organization and we do lack natural power Arias has, plus in my mind, he's a better SS defensively than Rocchio. Even if Arias flops as an everyday guy, he looks like a legit utility that will hit a HR now and again.

Rocchio has to hit for above average BA/OBP% while playing much better defense than he is now. He has a lot less margin for error if he wants to stay in the bigs...

Plus defenders that can hit HRs will always find a spot so Arias will always have one...

 

[BimboColesHair]

Also, if we’re having fun and are talking about Rocchio’s Statcast data “getting better” and how we should be happy with that while his production remains well below league average, let’s hear some discussion on how the 3 most frequent critiques of Arias’ game last year have gotten better.

But I’m sure we won’t hear a peep on how his K rate has dropped nearly 8%, his contact rate has jumped 7%, and his OPS vs LHP is up nearly 700 points.

Again. Be impartial. Or just tell me you don’t like someone and quit wasting my time trying to discuss things with you

 

[smalls1129]

My current concern is that for years it seemed assumed Rocchio was the superior defensive shortstop which added to my anticipation of him reaching the big, so far that is not playing out.

 

[MD13]

When Rocchio comes up to the plate with a man at 1st, I’m mentally preparing myself for a GIDP. He’s only hit into 3, (tied for team lead) but the number of soft grounders he hits make me feel like it’s just a case of whether it finds a hole or not.

Hopefully he picks it up soon, right now he just looks completely overwhelmed at the plate.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Marcell Ozuna is off to an incredible start to this season; .354/.431/.698/1.129. This series he's 3-for-6, all doubles, and has walked twice (once intentionally). He's a career .270/.802 hitter.

I would not pitch to this guy with runners on today. If he comes up with two on, walk him. The rest of the Braves are hitting .190. The Braves have scored 8 runs; Ozuna has driven in two and scored two. He's been half their offense.

 

[Gson]

Marcell Ozuna is off to an incredible start to this season; .354/.431/.698/1.129. This series he's 3-for-6, all doubles, and has walked twice. He's a career .270/.802 hitter.

I would not pitch to this guy with runners on today. The rest of the Braves are hitting .190. The Braves have scored 8 runs; Ozuna has driven in two and scored two. He's been half their offense.

a decision to not give Ozuna an opportunity to beat us is sound.. hello, Mr. Vogt??.. we have a suggestion..

think they'll ever utilize this incredibly knowledgeable resource?????

 

[BimboColesHair]

My current concern is that for years it seemed assumed Rocchio was the superior defensive shortstop which added to my anticipation of him reaching the big, so far that is not playing out.

Hasn’t been the case for a few years.

It’s in there, but other guys have past him by since 2021. Including Arias.