Amed Rosario - Play or Trade?

[Derek]

I can’t remember who it was, but he was on The Fan talking about how walks are the same as singles now. I know there are influential people in higher places than me who believe that. I don’t like it. I’ve learned to accept the new game with less emphasis on putting the ball in play and more on getting on base as much as possible any way possible and hitting for power. But I’m not fully there as a fan.

And I absolutely agree with you and your tier. There are too many stats in baseball now that are all just noise to me, but OPS is the one that I will always refer to when judging players. Gives you the entire snapshot of what they do well. In a day with declining hitting skills batting average has been tossed aside as the best judge, which took me some time to get used to. I always loved memorizing batting averages off the back of baseball cards. That was baseball to me, and defining who was good at hitting to me.

I can assure you that no team in the league is valuing a walk the same as a single. I didn’t just make up my tier, it’s statistical analysis, and every team employs people who know exactly what I do plus so much more.

Heck, the “walk is just as good as a single” saying isn’t even a new saying. I remember hearing it when I was playing for Rootstown Hot Stove in my first year of kid pitch back in 1995.

 

[sportscoach]

When it comes the transition into the rookies... They will try to limit how many everyday spots the rookies have, but at the same time, we barely had any veterans to begin with... The way I see it is this...

Rosario, Bell, Zunino all gone after 23. Plesac gone before/during 23 season. Bieber gone after 23 season (i dont put extension chances of being high).. TMac, Gimenez extended... Straw is on the hot seat after 23 if he losses his CF spot...

So going into 24 season, TMac is the new Ace of the staff... Civale is a trade candidate. Quan is the number 2, with Allen, Burns, Curry etc, competing with Bibee, Espino and Williams for two spots... Lavastida is competing with a veteran for the backup catcher spot/replaced as a catcher... Rosario spot is easily taken by a young MIF... Straw becomes a trade candidate. I think major deal in 24 is done...

In 25, TMac is the Ace, Quan and Civale gone... then the best 4 talents of those young pitchers are out starters. We may bring in 1 veteran on a flier, but we have a new staff in 25 outside of TMac... Hitting wise, if C isn't perfected yet, they will make a move...

 

[petes999]

When it comes the transition into the rookies... They will try to limit how many everyday spots the rookies have, but at the same time, we barely had any veterans to begin with... The way I see it is this...

Rosario, Bell, Zunino all gone after 23. Plesac gone before/during 23 season. Bieber gone after 23 season (i dont put extension chances of being high).. TMac, Gimenez extended... Straw is on the hot seat after 23 if he losses his CF spot...

So going into 24 season, TMac is the new Ace of the staff... Civale is a trade candidate. Quan is the number 2, with Allen, Burns, Curry etc, competing with Bibee, Espino and Williams for two spots... Lavastida is competing with a veteran for the backup catcher spot/replaced as a catcher... Rosario spot is easily taken by a young MIF... Straw becomes a trade candidate. I think major deal in 24 is done...

In 25, TMac is the Ace, Quan and Civale gone... then the best 4 talents of those young pitchers are out starters. We may bring in 1 veteran on a flier, but we have a new staff in 25 outside of TMac... Hitting wise, if C isn't perfected yet, they will make a move...

 

[avs2000]

Nice post!

While I do agree that singles are more valuable than walks, there's one hidden piece to the walk that I value highly... total number of pitches.

I think there is value to a lineup that sees a lot of pitches. As you make pitchers work, they're more likely to make a mistake. You're also going to get into the bullpen and work through the top bullpen options quicker.

I think that's part of what made our 2016 lineup tick. Napoli and Santana were among the top 5 players in baseball at pitches per plate appearance.

I always have a soft spot for guys who can work counts and see a lot of pitches--and I also think it's a metric that isn't being valued monetarily right now, so we can strike before other teams start to drive up the price for that skill.

I agree 100%. I am always watching the pitch account Get to their BP asap

 

[rcristal]

Do you even read peoples counter arguments to you?
BMAN

I absolutely do read them. I simply strongly disagree
Rcristal

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

When it comes the transition into the rookies... They will try to limit how many everyday spots the rookies have, but at the same time, we barely had any veterans to begin with... The way I see it is this...

Rosario, Bell, Zunino all gone after 23. Plesac gone before/during 23 season. Bieber gone after 23 season (i dont put extension chances of being high).. TMac, Gimenez extended... Straw is on the hot seat after 23 if he losses his CF spot...

So going into 24 season, TMac is the new Ace of the staff... Civale is a trade candidate. Quan is the number 2, with Allen, Burns, Curry etc, competing with Bibee, Espino and Williams for two spots... Lavastida is competing with a veteran for the backup catcher spot/replaced as a catcher... Rosario spot is easily taken by a young MIF... Straw becomes a trade candidate. I think major deal in 24 is done...

In 25, TMac is the Ace, Quan and Civale gone... then the best 4 talents of those young pitchers are out starters. We may bring in 1 veteran on a flier, but we have a new staff in 25 outside of TMac... Hitting wise, if C isn't perfected yet, they will make a move...

I don't know, Bell might love hitting behind Jose Ramirez and in front of Naylor and Gimenez and Gonzalez. After playing for the Pirates he might love playing on team that wins 100 games. He may want to stick around.

Of course that might just be the fan in me talking. But we don't have a first baseman among our top prospects and you don't want to play Naylor against lefties.

I agree that we will need to replace three starters after this season. Civale seems to be injury prone, Plesac just isn't that good, and Bieber will be moved in a Clevinger type deal in the best case scenario. So a huge part of the Guardians' success from 2024 on will depend on Espino, Williams, Bibee, Allen, and Morris.

 

[BMAN]

I absolutely do read them. I simply strongly disagree
Rcristal

Oh, well then.

BMAN

 

[sportscoach]

I don't know, Bell might love hitting behind Jose Ramirez and in front of Naylor and Gimenez and Gonzalez. After playing for the Pirates he might love playing on team that wins 100 games. He may want to stick around.

Of course that might just be the fan in me talking. But we don't have a first baseman among our top prospects and you don't want to play Naylor against lefties.

I agree that we will need to replace three starters after this season. Civale seems to be injury prone, Plesac just isn't that good, and Bieber will be moved in a Clevinger type deal in the best case scenario. So a huge part of the Guardians' success from 2024 on will depend on Espino, Williams, Bibee, Allen, and Morris.

We could end up keeping Bieber until he is a free agent and giving him a QO so we get draft compensation... I think though they will create a spot each season... Plesac gone in 23... Civale or Bieber in 24, then Quan and/or Bieber/Civale in 25... We don't just want to many open spots and expect the young guys to take them all. I feel like a transition will happen

 

[Lee]

I can assure you that no team in the league is valuing a walk the same as a single. I didn’t just make up my tier, it’s statistical analysis, and every team employs people who know exactly what I do plus so much more.

Heck, the “walk is just as good as a single” saying isn’t even a new saying. I remember hearing it when I was playing for Rootstown Hot Stove in my first year of kid pitch back in 1995.

With the bases empty a walk is just as good as a sinngle, but with runners on its not.

I know we all know that, a walk is better than a strike out, heck probably about 80% or even more of a single, but obviously not 100%.

Is there a stat that gives value to a walk vs a single?

 

[petes999]

With the bases empty a walk is just as good as a sinngle, but with runners on its not

I know we all know that, a walk is better than a strike out, heck probably about 80% or even more of a single, but obviously not 100%.

Is there a stat that gives value to a walk vs a single?

I think what you are looking for is wOBA ... Here is a description but roughly a walk is worth .69 and single is worth .88. But, then you get into things like xwoba (based on supposedly a neutral ballpark and defense). Baseball Savant puts Rosario at 43rd percentile (slightly less than average) for xwoba.

wOBA

Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is one of the most important and popular catch-all offensive statistics. It was created by Tom Tango (and notably used in "The Book") to measure a hitter'

library.fangraphs.com

But then you can get into all sort of mind-numbing stats like wRC+ (weighted runs created). But based on Rosario history, he is slightly below average on this formula but treaded water the last 3 of last 4 years (75,85,101,76,99,103 -- these are % differences from 100% average over his 6 years).

wRC and wRC+

Weighted Runs Created (wRC) is an improved version of Bill James' Runs Created (RC) statistic, which attempted to quantify a player's total offensive value and measure it by runs. In Runs Created…

library.fangraphs.com

 

[Derek]

With the bases empty a walk is just as good as a sinngle, but with runners on its not.

I know we all know that, a walk is better than a strike out, heck probably about 80% or even more of a single, but obviously not 100%.

Is there a stat that gives value to a walk vs a single?

At the advanced level, of course they assign higher value to a single. Even at the basic level, they do.

If a guy goes to the plate 4x and hits two singles, his OPS is 1.000

If a guy goes to the plate 4x and walks twice, his OPS is 0.500

Advanced stats assign a higher value to singles than walks, and nobody with any semblance of knowledge regarding statistics equates a walk to a single. It’s just an old adage.

 

[CDAV45]

I'm not sure Arias has tremendous value if you move him from short to first base.

I wish Amed's speed translated to playing a solid center field. That would solve a lot of our problems.

Right now, I feel like the organization is being snakebit a little by not having trade opportunities. Ideally, we'd trade either Amed, or guys like Freeman and/or Arias. But without that trade option to relieve pressure, we instead get this constipation at the major league level.

This^

 

[DCTribefan]

Not going to Red Sox.

 

[sportscoach]

Not going to Red Sox.

I didn't like who the Red Soxs had anyways lol

 

[CDAV45]

I don't know, Bell might love hitting behind Jose Ramirez and in front of Naylor and Gimenez and Gonzalez. After playing for the Pirates he might love playing on team that wins 100 games. He may want to stick around.

Of course that might just be the fan in me talking. But we don't have a first baseman among our top prospects and you don't want to play Naylor against lefties.

I agree that we will need to replace three starters after this season. Civale seems to be injury prone, Plesac just isn't that good, and Bieber will be moved in a Clevinger type deal in the best case scenario. So a huge part of the Guardians' success from 2024 on will depend on Espino, Williams, Bibee, Allen, and Morris.

The hope is that Bell has a great season, plays for a championship and opts to stick around for another year. We'll see, but I've always been a Josh Bell fan so that's me being a homer.

We don't have a 1B among our top prospects and Naylor did struggle against LHP. Will he continue to do so is the million dollar question?

We'll need to replace 4 of the 5 current starters. That's fine because we have internal options in Bibee, Williams, Morris, Espino, Allen, Pilkington, Battenfield and a few others. Unless they deal Bieber before the 23 season starts I don't believe they'll get anything close to the Clevinger deal. In fact, I think they run a significant risk of getting nothing much should he get injured again. Many want to go all in now and I just don't think it's the right time. I think they should continue to find out what they have internally and add young, inexpensive, ready talent to it if possible. I think the real window is 24 and beyond, but they can obviously still win with young talent so it's very circumstantial.