Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

[catfish]

Darius Garland will be an allstar

 

[Lee]

Darius Garland will be an allstar

I love this is said in the Sexton thread, lol

 

[Cavatt]

I love these games for the team. Darius has to play aggressive when Collin is in just like when he is out. Glad in a way that Collin hasn't been available every game. Sometimes your team grows when you are out

 

[saymac]

THEY BOTH may be all stars in the future the one thing people on this board forget to say is they game plan for Collin .and he still score instead of tearing down our young players sit back and enjoy them.

 

[I'mWithDan]

There are almost 10 extra possessions per team in each game now than there were 10 years ago as well! As impressive as Sexton's scoring is, there's an awful lot of context being ignored with the numbers you've posted.

I know this seems like an exercise no one believes.......but even normalizing for possession.......this list only adds two players (Mitchell, Russell......both guys who were All-Stars).

Guards, 22 years or younger.......min of 33 PTS, 5 AST per 100 (Collin is 33.9 / 5.7):

Derrick Rose
Trae Young
D'Angelo Russell
Donovan Mitchell
Devin Booker
Collin Sexton

Out of those players.......Collin's qualifying season is #1 in FG%, #1 in EFG and #4 in TS.

Guards, 25 years or younger.......min of 33 PTS, 5 AST per 100 (Collin is 33.9 / 5.7):

Allen Iverson
Gilbert Arenas
Dwayne Wade
Ben Gordon
Brandon Roy
Derrick Rose
Russell Westbrook
James Harden
Damian Lillard
Kyrie Irving
Victor Oladipo
Zach Lavine
Devin Booker
D'Angelo Russell
Donovan Mitchell
Trae Young
Colln Sexton
De'Aaron Fox

Out of those players.......Collin's qualifying season is #5 in FG%, #7 in EFG and #11 in TS.....out of 32 seasons.

Collin's numbers actually get better on a per possession basis, rank wise, because he has seen such a tremendous jump in efficiency.

Is there a small adjustment for a league wide increase? Sure......but he is also being compared to players playing in the same era (Young, Mitchell, Fox, etc.) and he is just grading out better than they are relative to peers.

This isn't to say Collin will be a better player than anyone on this list......that is tough to say......but his numbers through 3 seasons have been CRAZY good. Now, we'll need to see at what point he plateaus.

The marker for really great NBA outcomes appears to be multiple seasons on this list prior to 25. Iverson, Kyrie, Arenas, Westbrook, Harden, Trae, Mitchell, Booker had a minimum of two qualifying seasons prior to 25 and all will be multi time All-Stars.

 

[Derek]

I know this seems like an exercise no one believes.......but even normalizing for possession.......this list only adds two players (Mitchell, Rusell......both guys who were All-Stars).

Guards, 22 years or younger.......min of 33 PTS, 5 AST per 100 (Collin is 33.9 / 5.7):

Derrick Rose
Trae Young
D'Angelo Russell
Donovan Mitchell
Devin Booker
Collin Sexton

Out of those players.......Collin's qualifying season is #1 in FG%, #1 in EFG and #4 in TS.

Guards, 25 years or younger.......min of 33 PTS, 5 AST per 100 (Collin is 33.9 / 5.7):

Allen Iverson
Gilbert Arenas
Dwayne Wade
Ben Gordon
Brandon Roy
Derrick Rose
Russell Westbrook
James Harden
Damian Lillard
Kyrie Irving
Victor Oladipo
Zach Lavine
Devin Booker
D'Angelo Russell
Donovan Mitchell
Trae Young
Colln Sexton
De'Aaron Fox

Out of those players.......Collin's qualifying season is #5 in FG%, #7 in EFG and #11 in TS.....out of 32 seasons.

Collin's numbers actually get better on a per possession basis, rank wise, because he has seen such a tremendous jump in efficiency.

Is there a small adjustment for a league wide increase? Sure......but he is also being compared to players playing in the same era (Young, Mitchell, Fox, etc.) and he is just grading out better than they are relative to peers.

This isn't to say Collin will be a better player than anyone on this list......that is tough to say......but his numbers through 3 seasons have been CRAZY good. Now, we'll need to see at what point he plateaus.

The marker for really great NBA outcomes appears to be multiple seasons on this list prior to 25. Iverson, Kyrie, Arenas, Westbrook, Harden, Trae, Mitchell, Booker had a minimum of two qualifying seasons prior to 25 and all will be multi time All-Stars.

I think pre-injury Gilbert Arenas would be a favorable projection for Sexton.

He was the best player on some solid teams and likely would have thrived as a second or third option on a great team.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I have no expectations for any of those guys to be the best player on any NBA team

Who do you think is currently the best player on this Cavs team?

 

[I'mWithDan]

I think pre-injury Gilbert Arenas would be a favorable projection for Sexton.

He was the best player on some solid teams and likely would have thrived as a second or third option on a great team.

I think so as well.......there is obviously tiering here on this list......but Gilbert was an amazing player prior to his injury and someone who eventually developed in to one of the elite scorers in the NBA. 3 All star teams, 3 All NBA teams. That would be a great career for Collin and might make him one of the best #8 picks ever.

 

[daytripper]

I think so as well.......there is obviously tiering here on this list......but Gilbert was an amazing player prior to his injury and someone who eventually developed in to one of the elite scorers in the NBA. 3 All star teams, 3 All NBA teams. That would be a great career for Collin and might make him one of the best #8 picks ever.

Yeah I can see that..everyone wants to compare Collin to Ellis when he's much closer to the Wizards' version of Arenas.
Gilbert Arenas was dragging Larry Hughes and Antawn Jamison to the playoffs at one point too. Kinda crazy how Curry, Monta, Arenas, and Jamison were all drafted by the Warriors too..

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

Let me preface this by saying, this is the first time I've considered comping Sexton to Arenas and I want to dive into that when I have time later. Good comp on the surface.

Next, let me point out what scares me most about all 3 of these comps that I believe are valid for Sexton from an eye-test perspective; Arenas 6'4 (best case scenario), Ben Gordon 6'3 (current perfect match comp), Ellis 6'3 (worst case scenario, Sexton is slowly ascending past this comp for me). That I believe Sexton is a great comp for all 3 of these guys who are all 3 inches bigger, is a testament to him.

All 3 of these undersized combo guards game were predicated on blinding straight line speed leading to space to score at will in their peak. The commonality that they all share is the torque on their legs and their styles of play cost them all their career arcs JUST as they hit their prime and after 3-4 seasons of playing that way relentlessly as undersized ball dominant leading scorers.

Arenas at his peak was amazing and incited fear in the entire league. Hughes did all the dirty work as the lead initiator of the offense and head of Eddie Jordan's defense, and Antwan Jamison was a perfect back to the basket post option who could also space the floor and gobble up misses and even then their best production as a unit was first round exits.

Gordon was a terror as an all around scorer who had length and mobility covering for him on defense and could focus singularly on scoring. When they brought in Rose and Noah, he still lead the team in scoring but limited Rose's offensive ability/output until he was let walk after a great series against Boston but a first round exit

Ellis, we know his story and have rehashed it often. His exit from Golden State kicked off their postseason ascension.

I say all that to say...

I love Collin and love his approach to the game. At times, he attacking so fast with the ball that he simply LEAVES the ball behind when turning corners and turning on his second gear. It probably happens 2-3x a game, and it's scary that smart experienced defenders know that he only has one speed so they bait him into "speed traps with the ball" at the most inopportune times. I bring up the "leave the ball behind" to best illustrate how FAST this dude plays at all times. One speed. As soon as he feels the leather in his palm, BLUR.

It's awesome, but it's also recipe for short life-span/effectiveness/peak if he's doing that for 35mpg over 82 for 3-4 years as history indicates.

I dont want to project injury, I want to caution from a big picture/team building standpoint that the way he plays and his greatest strengths are not something we havent seen before, and the commonality is, it has a very short peak if used at max. Kind of like an engine used at full-throttle or a running back predicated on breaking tackles who tries to do that for 30 carries a game for 3-4 years straight. They break down and lose their efficiency pretty quickly.

Building with him slotted at 35 mpg and one of the max contracts scares the shit out of me for the championship aspirations of my team. Nevermind at all how the rest of the roster still needs to come together to be a true contender and make use of those few years of him maxing his lower body out at that degree, or trying to learn to better create for others while using that torque super power.

(hops off soap-box and rewatches last nights game, which was a very balanced offensive attacking unit with all 5 starters playing with purpose knowing the ball was coming their way)

 

[ryanf]

Let me preface this by saying, this is the first time I've considered comping Sexton to Arenas and I want to dive into that when I have time later. Good comp on the surface.

Next, let me point out what scares me most about all 3 of these comps that I believe are valid for Sexton from an eye-test perspective; Arenas 6'4 (best case scenario), Ben Gordon 6'3 (current perfect match comp), Ellis 6'3 (worst case scenario, Sexton is slowly ascending past this comp for me). That I believe Sexton is a great comp for all 3 of these guys who are all 3 inches bigger, is a testament to him.

All 3 of these undersized combo guards game were predicated on blinding straight line speed leading to space to score at will in their peak. The commonality that they all share is the torque on their legs and their styles of play cost them all their career arcs JUST as they hit their prime and after 3-4 seasons of playing that way relentlessly as undersized ball dominant leading scorers.

Arenas at his peak was amazing and incited fear in the entire league. Hughes did all the dirty work as the lead initiator of the offense and head of Eddie Jordan's defense, and Antwan Jamison was a perfect back to the basket post option who could also space the floor and gobble up misses and even then their best production as a unit was first round exits.

Gordon was a terror as an all around scorer who had length and mobility covering for him on defense and could focus singularly on scoring. When they brought in Rose and Noah, he still lead the team in scoring but limited Rose's offensive ability/output until he was let walk after a great series against Boston but a first round exit

Ellis, we know his story and have rehashed it often. His exit from Golden State kicked off their postseason ascension.

I say all that to say...

I love Collin and love his approach to the game. At times, he attacking so fast with the ball that he simply LEAVES the ball behind when turning corners and turning on his second gear. It probably happens 2-3x a game, and it's scary that smart experienced defenders know that he only has one speed so they bait him into "speed traps with the ball" at the most inopportune times. I bring up the "leave the ball behind" to best illustrate how FAST this dude plays at all times. One speed. As soon as he feels the leather in his palm, BLUR.

It's awesome, but it's also recipe for short life-span/effectiveness/peak if he's doing that for 35mpg over 82 for 3-4 years as history indicates.

I dont want to project injury, I want to caution from a big picture/team building standpoint that the way he plays and his greatest strengths are not something we havent seen before, and the commonality is, it has a very short peak if used at max. Kind of like an engine used at full-throttle or a running back predicated on breaking tackles who tries to do that for 30 carries a game for 3-4 years straight. They break down and lose their efficiency pretty quickly.

Building with him slotted at 35 mpg and one of the max contracts scares the shit out of me for the championship aspirations of my team. Nevermind at all how the rest of the roster still needs to come together to be a true contender and make use of those few years of him maxing his lower body out at that degree, or trying to learn to better create for others while using that torque super power.

(hops off soap-box and rewatches last nights game, which was a very balanced offensive attacking unit with all 5 starters playing with purpose knowing the ball was coming their way)

Several things to allay your concerns. First, physical training and off season conditioning is light years ahead now compared to 5 years ago. 2nd, league rules protect guards and shooters now. 3rd, load/minute management is not frowned upon anymore.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

Several things to allay your concerns. First, physical training and off season conditioning is light years ahead now compared to 5 years ago. 2nd, league rules protect guards and shooters now. 3rd, load/minute management is not frowned upon anymore.

All applicable and noted.

 

[2 For The Brew]

If Collin’s next contract would take him past 30 I’d be concerned about him losing a step or wearing out but he’s still young.

 

[Cavatt]

Sexton's ability to finish through contact and in the post, even his quick 2nd jump are athletic talents normally for a bigger dude. I get the "he could get hurt and won't be able to score" except, he hasn't had high gear for most of the year and is still going. He has been fighting through groin and ankle stuff and he is still scoring. He is still fast, but IMO he has been playing somewhat hurt 75% year and guys still can't stop him. He turned his ankle like 4 times in one week in late Dec early january

 

[LeeBuckeye]

Let me preface this by saying, this is the first time I've considered comping Sexton to Arenas and I want to dive into that when I have time later. Good comp on the surface.

Next, let me point out what scares me most about all 3 of these comps that I believe are valid for Sexton from an eye-test perspective; Arenas 6'4 (best case scenario), Ben Gordon 6'3 (current perfect match comp), Ellis 6'3 (worst case scenario, Sexton is slowly ascending past this comp for me). That I believe Sexton is a great comp for all 3 of these guys who are all 3 inches bigger, is a testament to him.

All 3 of these undersized combo guards game were predicated on blinding straight line speed leading to space to score at will in their peak. The commonality that they all share is the torque on their legs and their styles of play cost them all their career arcs JUST as they hit their prime and after 3-4 seasons of playing that way relentlessly as undersized ball dominant leading scorers.

Arenas at his peak was amazing and incited fear in the entire league. Hughes did all the dirty work as the lead initiator of the offense and head of Eddie Jordan's defense, and Antwan Jamison was a perfect back to the basket post option who could also space the floor and gobble up misses and even then their best production as a unit was first round exits.

Gordon was a terror as an all around scorer who had length and mobility covering for him on defense and could focus singularly on scoring. When they brought in Rose and Noah, he still lead the team in scoring but limited Rose's offensive ability/output until he was let walk after a great series against Boston but a first round exit

Ellis, we know his story and have rehashed it often. His exit from Golden State kicked off their postseason ascension.

I say all that to say...

I love Collin and love his approach to the game. At times, he attacking so fast with the ball that he simply LEAVES the ball behind when turning corners and turning on his second gear. It probably happens 2-3x a game, and it's scary that smart experienced defenders know that he only has one speed so they bait him into "speed traps with the ball" at the most inopportune times. I bring up the "leave the ball behind" to best illustrate how FAST this dude plays at all times. One speed. As soon as he feels the leather in his palm, BLUR.

It's awesome, but it's also recipe for short life-span/effectiveness/peak if he's doing that for 35mpg over 82 for 3-4 years as history indicates.

I dont want to project injury, I want to caution from a big picture/team building standpoint that the way he plays and his greatest strengths are not something we havent seen before, and the commonality is, it has a very short peak if used at max. Kind of like an engine used at full-throttle or a running back predicated on breaking tackles who tries to do that for 30 carries a game for 3-4 years straight. They break down and lose their efficiency pretty quickly.

Building with him slotted at 35 mpg and one of the max contracts scares the shit out of me for the championship aspirations of my team. Nevermind at all how the rest of the roster still needs to come together to be a true contender and make use of those few years of him maxing his lower body out at that degree, or trying to learn to better create for others while using that torque super power.

(hops off soap-box and rewatches last nights game, which was a very balanced offensive attacking unit with all 5 starters playing with purpose knowing the ball was coming their way)

Sure, Sexton is fast but players that get that short life-span label are elite athletes (dunking in traffic type) or guys with explosives first steps that usually also lack a jump shot. Sexton is efficient and gets his shots in multiple way and he gets a ton of shots off you wouldn't expect in traffic due to his length and underrated strength without playing above the rim.

But lets say this is potentially a concern, why not pay him from age 23-26 which would be his physical prime? Not giving baseball type deals here.