Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

[Cavatt]

Won't be an allstar until the cavs are in the playoffs

 

[daddywags]

All very impressive, and I do think Sexton can be a useful piece on good teams.

However, most of this data is just noise when you consider the differences in pace and shooting even 5 years ago.

I would love to see some pace-adjusted/possession numbers along with shooting percentages relative to league-average.

10 years ago, the league's eFG% was .487 and TS% was .527.
Now, its eFG% is .537 and TS% in .571.

There are almost 10 extra possessions per team in each game now than there were 10 years ago as well! As impressive as Sexton's scoring is, there's an awful lot of context being ignored with the numbers you've posted.

It's a mixed bag, at least for league adjusted %s. Sexton is at 98 (eFG%+) and 101 (TS%+). The others (using bRef) -

Lillard (25 yo) 99 and 103
Rose (22) 97 and 102
Wade (23) 100 and 106
Iverson (23) 94 and 99
Arenas (23) 103 and 107
Irving (24) 104 and 105
Booker (21) 96 and 101
Beal (25) 103 and 104
LaVine (24) 100 and 101
Young (21) 98 and 105
Fox (23) 97 and 99
Mitchell (23) 97 and 99

 

[Derek]

It's a mixed bag, at least for league adjusted %s. Sexton is at 98 (eFG%+) and 101 (TS%+). The others (using bRef) -

Lillard (25 yo) 99 and 103
Rose (22) 97 and 102
Wade (23) 100 and 106
Iverson (23) 94 and 99
Arenas (23) 103 and 107
Irving (24) 104 and 105
Booker (21) 96 and 101
Beal (25) 103 and 104
LaVine (24) 100 and 101
Young (21) 98 and 105
Fox (23) 97 and 99
Mitchell (23) 97 and 99

Thanks

I’m curious how many more guys would be able to the list of the parameters were changed to reflect the differences we’ve talked about.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Sexton's progress in a few other areas, starting with his rookie season:

Points per 100 shot attempts: 102.6, 112.5, 116.9. Compared to other shooting guards those numbers put him in the 33rd, 57th, and 77th percentiles.

Assist percentage: 15.4, 14.4, 20.0. That corresponds to league percentiles of 4, 6, and 58. His passing has made a huge jump this year.

Two-point shooting percentage: 43.8, 49.9, 51.9. This season he's in the 71st percentile.

Three-point shooting percentage: 39.9, 38.8, 38.6. No improvement in his 3-point shooting, in fact, it's decreased a little over 1 percent.

He's taking 32% of his shots at the rim - same as his rookie year. His percentage of short middle range shots (4 - 14 feet) increased from 19% to 28% to 35%. He's getting very comfortable and effective with that runner in the paint.

His long mid-range shots (14 feet to the 3-point line) have decreased from 26% as a rookie to 12% this season.

His 3-point rate has been 23%, 22%, and 21%. The 21% puts him in the 4th percentile of shooting guards. His success rate puts him in the 59th percentile from deep but he's only in the 4th percentile in frequency. He should probably shoot more 3's.

His accuracy at the rim has improved from 54% to 62% from his rookie year. He's learning how to finish against bigs. In the short mid-range his shooing percentage has gone from 35% to 42% to 49%, improving 7% each year. He's really improved his floater and pull-up jumper tremendously.

Sexton's corner three percentage improved from 30% as a rookie to 50% this year, putting him in the 85th percentile. He's become an excellent corner three shooter. On the non-corner 3's his percentage has declined from 42% as a rookie to 37% the last two seasons. They should run more plays that put him in the corner.

Sexton excels at drawing fouls. When shooting he gets fouled 12.3% of the time, up from 7.0% as a rookie, putting him in the 88th percentile among shooting guards. His percentage of non-shooting fouls per play puts him in the 97th percentile. Opponents foul him on the floor to avoid getting blown by. That has value because when he's fouled with the shot clock expiring it gives the Cavs 14 seconds to run a play instead of forcing up a late shot. Also, every foul gets your team closer to being in the bonus. But getting fouled on the floor is not going to show up in the box score.

Sexton is getting better at everything except free throw shooting and 3-point shooting; both are down slightly from his rookie season. In particular, his assist rate has taken a huge jump, from being in the 4-6 percentile range to the 58th.

I'm wondering if the Cavs start and finish next season with basically the same core group (Allen, Hartenstein, Love, Nance, Wade, Okoro, Prince, Garland, Sexton, and the draft pick) instead of using 25 different lineups and switching from Drummond/McGee to Allen/Hartenstein and running Cedi and Windler in and out and having to bring in 10-day guys like Cook and Ferrell will Sexton's numbers get even better due solely to familiarity with his teammates?

For example, will his assists increase once he knows where his teammates will be in any given situation? Put the same core group around him for 82 games and his numbers could take another jump.

 

[Pioneer10]

What's the comparison for him:
terrific scorer with the ball in his hands. I mean no matter how you slice and dice the data he is very efficient one on one.
Shooting, transition, and finishing are all good.

Average playmaker?

OTOH as good as he is on the ball, he doesn't move well off the ball and his defense is bad. Defense seems to boil down to he has trouble contesting 3's (probably due to his lack of size) and his rebounding numbers are bad as well for his position.

 

[ansatsusha80]

What's the comparison for him:
terrific scorer with the ball in his hands. I mean no matter how you slice and dice the data he is very efficient one on one.
Shooting, transition, and finishing are all good.

Average playmaker?

OTOH as good as he is on the ball, he doesn't move well off the ball and his defense is bad. Defense seems to boil down to he has trouble contesting 3's (probably due to his lack of size) and his rebounding numbers are bad as well for his position.

 

[Dr No]

That he can stuff a stat sheet is beyond question. That he can lead a winning team is not. Proving he is a winner is what’s left for him at this point. He was individually great at Alabama on a team with lots a talent, that still went only 8-10 in the SEC. He’s put up fabulous numbers for a guy so young in Cleveland, but wins have been few and far between. Is it his teammates? Is it coaching? Is it him? I honestly don’t know. But I do know wins is the goal and if he becomes the best player on a winning team there won’t be much to criticize.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I seem to remember another young, incredibly efficient for his age guard that “stuffed the stat sheet” while his team lost a bunch of games. Difference is that guy was treated as a god and an all star, while Sexton we aren’t sure if we should pay or if he should be a 6th man.

Sexton’s 3rd year: 24.5 PPG, 4.1 APG, 3 RPG on 48.7/37.6/81.5 shooting splits with a 58.1 TS% on a usage of 29%. His teams have gone 59-147 (28.7%).

Kyrie’s 3rd year: 20.8 PPG, 6.1 APG, 3.6 RPG on 43/35.8/86 shooting splits with a 53.3 TS% on a usage of 28.2%. His teams had gone 78-152 (33.9%).

It’s crazy to me that Cavs fans won’t embrace him, and it’s being justified because his teams don’t win. Kyrie’s didn’t win either, but he was embraced heavily.

A lot of people respect the shit out of the Sexton and Garland backcourt league-wide. Cavs fans on the other hand are too busy trying to figure out which one to bench, which one to move for fit all while they’re getting 10 PPG from their SF spot, a position that is ruling the NBA right now.

This is a player most of this board would covet if he was on another team and there was even a peep of him not being offered a hefty contract extension by his current team or being offered up in a trade.

 

[Derek]

I seem to remember another young, incredibly efficient for his age guard that “stuffed the stat sheet” while his team lost a bunch of games. Difference is that guy was treated as a god and an all star, while Sexton we aren’t sure if we should pay or if he should be a 6th man.

Sexton’s 3rd year: 24.5 PPG, 4.1 APG, 3 RPG on 48.7/37.6/81.5 shooting splits with a 58.1 TS% on a usage of . His teams have gone 59-147 (28.7%).

Kyrie’s 3rd year: 20.8 PPG, 6.1 APG, 3.6 RPG on 43/35.8/86 shooting splits with a 53.3 TS% on a usage of 28.2%. His teams had gone 78-152 (33.9%).

It’s crazy to me that Cavs fans won’t embrace him, and it’s being justified because his teams don’t win. Kyrie’s didn’t win either, but he was embraced heavily.

A lot of people respect the shit out of the Sexton and Garland backcourt league-wide. Cavs fans on the other hand are too busy trying to figure out which one to bench, which one to move for fit all while they’re getting 10 PPG from their SF spot, a position that is ruling the NBA right now.

This is a player most of this board would covet if he was on another team and there was even a peep of him not being offered a hefty contract extension by his current team or being offered up in a trade.

I hate comparing Sexton's third year to Kyrie's because Kyrie took a HUGE step backwards in his third year under Mike Brown. It was the worst season of his career, and he took a ton of shit that year. There were some very vocal proponents of jettisoning him in favor of Dion Waiters

 

[BimboColesHair]

I hate comparing Sexton's third year to Kyrie's because Kyrie took a HUGE step backwards in his third year under Mike Brown. It was the worst season of his career, and he took a ton of shit that year. There were some very vocal proponents of jettisoning him in favor of Dion Waiters

Shit, Sexton’s scoring year this year was better than any of Kyrie’s under Byron Scott. And his year 2 scoring was very similar to Kyrie’s year 2.

Sexton has gone through 4 different head coaches in 3 pro seasons and has gotten better every season.

If anything that just makes me ask why people don’t embrace him even more. Kid is taking leaps forward while his organization has been ran like a joke.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Here, for those who will use Kyrie’s 3rd season being under Mike Brown as justification.

Through their first 3 pro seasons:

Sexton: 20 PPG, 3.1 APG, 3 RPG on 46.1/38.7/83.3 shooting splits with a 55.2 TS% on a usage of 26.9% in 197 games.

Kyrie: 20.7 PPG, 5.8 APG, 3.7 RPG on 44.7/37.8/86.2 shooting splits with a 54.8 TS% on a usage of 29% in 181 games.

 

[Derek]

Shit, Sexton’s scoring year this year was better than any of Kyrie’s under Byron Scott.

You sure you're looking at the right years? His second season was significantly better than his third season. He scored more, and did it more efficiently by a decent margin.

And his year 2 scoring was very similar to Kyrie’s year 2.

Sexton has gone through 4 different head coaches in 3 pro seasons and has gotten better every season.

If anything that just makes me ask why people don’t embrace him even more. Kid is taking leaps forward while his organization has been ran like a joke.

Kyrie's year-2 is better than anything Sexton has done so far. It gained him a lot of goodwill that quickly dissipated the following year when he fell off substantially.

Here, for those who will use Kyrie’s 3rd season being under Mike Brown as justification.

Through their first 3 pro seasons:

Sexton: 20 PPG, 3.1 APG, 3 RPG on 46.1/38.7/83.3 shooting splits with a 55.2 TS% on a usage of 26.9% in 197 games.

Kyrie: 20.7 PPG, 5.8 APG, 3.7 RPG on 44.7/37.8/86.2 shooting splits with a 54.8 TS% on a usage of 29% in 181 games.

The league-average TS% in Kyrie's first three years was 53.4%. In Sexton's first three seasons, it has been 56.5%.

The Cavs' pace over Kyrie's first three years was 92.2 while in Sexton's first three years, it has been 97.5

Quite simply, relative to the rest of the league, Kyrie was better then than what Sexton is now. Not by a ton, but it's decisive. Kyrie was scoring with above-average efficiency while Sexton has been well below-average until this season when he's crept up to every-so-slightly above average.

Sexton is a nice young player, with a ton of scoring ability. Using Kyrie as a comparison just isn't fair to him though.

 

[daddywags]

That he can stuff a stat sheet is beyond question. That he can lead a winning team is not. Proving he is a winner is what’s left for him at this point. He was individually great at Alabama on a team with lots a talent, that still went only 8-10 in the SEC. He’s put up fabulous numbers for a guy so young in Cleveland, but wins have been few and far between. Is it his teammates? Is it coaching? Is it him? I honestly don’t know. But I do know wins is the goal and if he becomes the best player on a winning team there won’t be much to criticize.

"The best player on a winning team." You set the bar pretty high for Sexton. Do you grade all our young players against that metric? Okoro, Allen, Garland?

 

[Cavatt]

You sure you're looking at the right years? His second season was significantly better than his third season. He scored more, and did it more efficiently by a decent margin.

Kyrie's year-2 is better than anything Sexton has done so far. It gained him a lot of goodwill that quickly dissipated the following year when he fell off substantially.

The league-average TS% in Kyrie's first three years was 53.4%. In Sexton's first three seasons, it has been 56.5%.

The Cavs' pace over Kyrie's first three years was 92.2 while in Sexton's first three years, it has been 97.5

Quite simply, relative to the rest of the league, Kyrie was better then than what Sexton is now. Not by a ton, but it's decisive. Kyrie was scoring with above-average efficiency while Sexton has been well below-average until this season when he's crept up to every-so-slightly above average.

Sexton is a nice young player, with a ton of scoring ability. Using Kyrie as a comparison just isn't fair to him though.

So what. Kyrie started at a higher level of polish. Collin has arguably improved more in 3 years than Kyrie ever has.

If anything I'd say Colin has done more with less. It always felt like Kyrie was wasting his playmaking potential, while everyone knows Collin is giving it all he's got.

 

[Dr No]

"The best player on a winning team." You set the bar pretty high for Sexton. Do you grade all our young players against that metric? Okoro, Allen, Garland?

I have no expectations for any of those guys to be the best player on any NBA team