Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

[daytripper]

Well he's gone now. I wish him well with the Jazz.

Collin was the first of the kids drafted in this post-Lebron era and believe he did set the culture for this young team. Even in his IG story after the trade he was thanking the fans of Cleveland. Can't thank him enough for that. The entire culture could've been different had they drafted someone like Miles Bridges.

He kept his head down even though Cavs went thru 4 head coaches in his first 2 seasons. They immediately drafted Garland after his rookie year and from that point it was obvious one of them would eventually need to move on.

Sexton has been around here for awhile so it's hard to think he's still only 23. I do believe there is untapped potential there too.

I really do hope good things are in store for Bull in Utah.

 

[wnorman51]

You’re right, but we also have a few years of prior data that show the team being better with Sexton on the bench.

The schedule really has no bearing in ON/OFF numbers. If you want added context, knowing who he played in lineups with would be relevant, but all of his most used lineups were better without him.

Easy games vs Tough games don’t really matter regarding ON/OFF numbers. It just shows how a team does with a player on the floor opposed to how they do when he sits.



Context isn’t an issue as much as sample size is. We can definitively say that the team was better when Sexton sat during those first 11 games, but without a larger sample, I wouldn’t feel comfortable saying that would definitely be the case moving forward.

When the Bad Cavs teams started games they had Sexton on the floor and got blown out. When the game was in hand, Sexton wasn’t playing as much and they do ok because of the context of the game.

I think easy games matter because they are a chance to bolster on/off stats. When you play Sacramento and beat them by 30, everyone’s “on” stats will get better.

I definitely don’t agree that the team was better without Sexton in the first 11 games. I think our bench unit was a better match for other bench units when compared with how our starters played against other teams’ starters that early in the season. That throws off the on/off stats I think.

 

[Derek]

When the Bad Cavs teams started games they had Sexton on the floor and got blown out. When the game was in hand, Sexton wasn’t playing as much and they do ok because of the context of the game.

I think easy games matter because they are a chance to bolster on/off stats. When you play Sacramento and beat them by 30, everyone’s “on” stats will get better.

That’s not true at all.

If we beat someone by 30 and let’s say Collin is +12 in 24 minutes. That would mean the team was +18 in the other 24 minutes, and Collins on/off number would be -6.

I definitely don’t agree that the team was better without Sexton in the first 11 games. I think our bench unit was a better match for other bench units when compared with how our starters played against other teams’ starters that early in the season. That throws off the on/off stats I think.

The rest of our starters still had very good on/off numbers during those first 11 games though.

 

[Douglar]

You really need about 20 games before the noise starts to subside from +/- numbers. Collin only played 11 games. It's not enough time to reach general conclusions based on +/- numbers alone.

Take out the Lakers game and the Phoenix game and Collin's +/- look very different.

You could use a tool like popcornmachine.net to identify areas to re-watch.

PopcornMachine's GameFlows - Cleveland Cavaliers @ LA Lakers Lakers - Oct 29, 2021

popcornmachine.net

So what happened in the 4Q? Was Collin was stopping the ball on offense? Was it because the Lakers were found a way to take advantage of Allen and Collin happened to be playing next to him? Was it because Lebron started splashing some ridiculous shots that had no business going in? Was it because Mobley was a rookie? That's the kind of stuff you got to check when you only have 11 games of data. You have a couple outlier games that swing the data. Were the outlier's Collin's fault or was it something unrelated that just happened to happen while Collin was on the floor?

That’s not true at all.

If we beat someone by 30 and let’s say Collin is +12 in 24 minutes. That would mean the team was +18 in the other 24 minutes, and Collins on/off number would be -6.

The rest of our starters still had very good on/off numbers during those first 11 games though.

I don't think +/- works like that. It's very possible for the entire team to have positive or negative +/- in blowouts.

Plus-Minus for Any Player = Team Points Scored While That Player is On The Court – Team Points Allowed While That Player is On The Court​

NBA Plus-Minus & Impact Metrics in Basketball Explained

NBA Plus-minus and all derived +/- player impact metrics explained. Plus/minus basically tracks the net changes in the score when a player is on or off

www.nbastuffer.com

Perhaps you are thinking of APM ? (Adjusted +/-)

Adjusted Plus Minus - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Derek]

You really need about 20 games before the noise starts to subside from +/- numbers. Collin only played 11 games. It's not enough time to reach general conclusions based on +/- numbers alone.

Take out the Lakers game and the Phoenix game and Collin's +/- look very different.

You could use a tool like popcornmachine.net to identify areas to re-watch.

PopcornMachine's GameFlows - Cleveland Cavaliers @ LA Lakers Lakers - Oct 29, 2021

popcornmachine.net

So what happened in the 4Q? Was Collin was stopping the ball on offense? Was it because the Lakers were found a way to take advantage of Allen and Collin happened to be playing next to him? Was it because Lebron started splashing some ridiculous should that had no business going in? Was it because Mobley was a rookie? That's the kind of stuff you got to check when you only have 11 games of data. You have a couple outlier games that swing the data. Were the outlier's Collin's fault or was it something unrelated that just happened to happen while Collin was on the floor?



I don't think +/- works like that.

Plus-Minus for Any Player =​

Team Points Scored While That Player is On The Court – Team Points Allowed While That Player is On The Court​

NBA Plus-Minus & Impact Metrics in Basketball Explained

NBA Plus-minus and all derived +/- player impact metrics explained. Plus/minus basically tracks the net changes in the score when a player is on or off

www.nbastuffer.com

Perhaps you are thinking of APM ? (Adjusted +/-)

Adjusted Plus Minus - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I’m wasn’t talking about +/-

We were talking about on/off numbers and I was explaining why games against tougher opponents didn’t necessarily influence on/off numbers more negatively than amy other game.

Re-read what you quoted.

 

[JJ_PR]

Wrong thread

 

[foucault87]

Statistics is hard. This is why we should stick to simple numbers like ppg and rpg

 

[Douglar]

I’m wasn’t talking about +/-

We were talking about on/off numbers and I was explaining why games against tougher opponents didn’t necessarily influence on/off numbers more negatively than amy other game.

Re-read what you quoted.

Where are you getting your on-off numbers?

 

[foucault87]

Statistics is hard. This is why we should stick to simple numbers like ppg and rpg

This is really stupid. Boxscore numbers don't provide enough information about things like who else was on the floor or adjust for how numbers are across the league. Advanced stats are more nuanced

 

[Derek]

I'm torn on the Donovan Mitchell trade. On one hand, he's a superstar so he instantly makes us better.

That being said, I think we grossly overpaid. Collin Sexton alone is like a poor man's Mitchell. Then we give up Markkanen, Agbaji, THREE unprotected firsts & two unprotected swaps as well? That's crazy.

The only way this trade doesn't end in disaster is if we make a few deep playoff runs. Otherwise, this could get ugly quick.

It sucks that we gave up all our depth. I think Altman had something great going.

Was it a panic move? Who knows. We'll never get to see how Agbaji looks on our roster. I think he has a chance to be a solid player.

This is all coming from pretty much a casual fan, so take it with a grain of salt. Koby is a proven executive, so he probably knows what he's doing.

It's a risky trade. There is tons of upside but the floor is pretty low as well.

How did we give away all our depth?

We gave away just one rotation player from last year and got one in return.

Pick swaps are meaningless unless you think we’re going to be picking high enough that the Jazz would want to swap their pick with our’s.

The floor is not low at all on this one. If anything, it’s the ceiling that’s in question due to the pairing of two undersized guards not known for their defense, but I haven’t the slightest clue what disaster you’re worried about.

 

[Derek]

Where are you getting your on-off numbers?

I made up a hypothetical scenario to explain why blowouts don’t necessarily inflate on/off numbers like the poster I was responding to suggested.

 

[buzzdog]

This thread needs to die or be moved to around the NBA.

 

[Benway]

This thread needs to die or be moved to around the NBA.

It's so hard to let go

 

[JJ_PR]

How did we give away all our depth?

We gave away just one rotation player from last year and got one in return.

Pick swaps are meaningless unless you think we’re going to be picking high enough that the Jazz would want to swap their pick with our’s.

The floor is not low at all on this one. If anything, it’s the ceiling that’s in question due to the pairing of two undersized guards not known for their defense, but I haven’t the slightest clue what disaster you’re worried about.

Valid points. There's no doubt we're more talented after the trade. Can't wait to see how this experiment works out.

 

[ChicagoCavFan]

Statistics is hard. This is why we should stick to simple numbers like ppg and rpg

This is really stupid. Boxscore numbers don't provide enough information about things like who else was on the floor or adjust for how numbers are across the league. Advanced stats are more nuanced

Love it.