Deshaun Watson Off the Field Thread v3: 11 games, $5M

[chrisrich91]

I'd be surprised if this settled before the parties were aware of Harvey's decision. It's basically in the same posture that it was before Robinson's decision, when Watson's camp rejected the NFL demands. And Robinson's decision only helped Watson. So why take a deal now that you weren't willing to take before?

It may be the Harvey will let the parties know before it becomes public, and they'll negotiate then. Doesn't make sense for Watson's team to back down before then.

I guess it depends if you believe that Harvey will do anything besides granting the NFL’s wish for a year long, indefinite suspension.

I guess you can wait until he issues a ruling but I’m not sure I’d bother dragging this out. At some point the NFL could say “fuck it, take us to court”. I wouldn’t risk getting to that point.

EDIT: Especially with the NFL's obsession with optics, the longer this goes on, the less likely that the NFL opts for the settlement IMO. Even now the response to a few tweets about settlement talks is along the lines of "oh, players get to negotiate their punishments now?"

At a certain point if this keeps dragging and it becomes more evident that there are settlement discussions being had, the public outcry may grow to a point where the NFL decides a lawsuit isn't as bad as public perception that they are negotiating with a predatory sex offender.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I guess it depends if you believe that Harvey will do anything besides granting the NFL’s wish for a year long, indefinite suspension.

I guess you can wait until he issues a ruling but I’m not sure I’d bother dragging this out. At some point the NFL could say “fuck it, take us to court”. I wouldn’t risk getting to that point.

If that's the basis for settling, they should have done it before Robinson issued her ruling because it was always going to end up with Goodell anyway.

 

[chrisrich91]

If that's the basis for settling, they should have done it before Robinson issued her ruling because it was always going to end up with Goodell anyway.

Fair, but I think Sue's 6 games may have changed the context in a good way for Watson's camp.

If they settled for 12 games pre-Sue, the public would have felt some type of way. Now? 12 games now constitutes a doubling-up of Sue's ruling...little better context post-Sue.

People are still going to be pissed, but now the NFL has the narrative that they weren't satisfied and fought to double the federal judge's recommended punishment.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Fair, but I think Sue's 6 games may have changed the context in a good way for Watson's camp.

If they settled for 12 games pre-Sue, the public would have felt some type of way. Now? 12 games now constitutes a doubling-up of Sue's ruling...little better context post-Sue.

People are still going to be pissed, but now the NFL has the narrative that they weren't satisfied and fought to double the federal judge's recommended punishment.

But if it changed it for "a good way" for Watson't camp, why accept a deal now that you rejected then?

 

[chrisrich91]

But if it changed it for "a good way" for Watson't camp, why accept a deal now that you rejected then?

Honestly? Because I don't trust the party across the table from me not to say 'fuck it' and go nuclear.

I think most people are very confident that the NFL would win a lawsuit. So Watson's negotiating chip is simply 'let's all avoid this headache of a lawsuit'. That's not a strong hand IMO.

 

[CBBI]

But if it changed it for "a good way" for Watson't camp, why accept a deal now that you rejected then?

Because his options are dwindling?

Like even if the NFLPA sues and the unthinkable happens and it actually reaches a court room, it certainly feels like they're just delaying the inevitable, right?

Like what's the best case for Watson? This gets tied up in court for a few months, he plays beginning week 7 and then his suspension kicks back in when the NFL wins the suit?

At that point he's putting 2023 games at risk. Seems not worth it.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Because his options are dwindling?

They're literally the exact same or better as they were before Sue Robinson issued her opinion.

Like even if the NFLPA sues and the unthinkable happens and it actually reaches a court room, it certainly feels like they're just delaying the inevitable, right?

That feeling is basically just fatigue from dwelling on this. It's common when it gets late in cases because the "I just want it over" sentiment usually makes a late run. It certainly exists on this message boardd, and likely among some fans and pundits more broadly. But it certainly isn't how his lawyers are feeling if they're any good. They've already thought through all the options, and are now playing the hand.

Like what's the best case for Watson? This gets tied up in court for a few months, he plays beginning week 7 and then his suspension kicks back in when the NFL wins the suit?

No, that's worst case. Best case is he wins. Second best case is that he misses six games this year, and some additional ones next year, but plays for the bulk of both seasons.

Cards have been dealt. Might as well see what they are before folding.

 

[Chris]

The never ending story!

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Honestly? Because I don't trust the party across the table from me not to say 'fuck it' and go nuclear.

What does that mean? Whatever incentives exist for the NFL to settle this before the decision are still going to exist after.

Don't forget, the NFL's goal is to have Watson miss as much time this season as possible. The NFL knows that if he appeals an extended sentence, there's a good chance that case won't be resolved until after this season, meaning that Watson would be on the field game 7 no matter what. So if they are willing to settle for 10 or 12 games and it's substantial fine now, they're going to be ready to settle for that exact same thing after Harvey's decision.

I think most people are very confident that the NFL would win a lawsuit. So Watson's negotiating chip is simply 'let's all avoid this headache of a lawsuit'. That's not a strong hand IMO.

It's the same hand they've had since day one. If not stronger.

 

[CBBI]

What does that mean? Whatever incentives exist for the NFL to settle this before the decision are still going to exist after.

Don't forget, the NFL's goal is to have Watson misses much time this season as possible. The NFL knows that if he appeals an extended sentence, there's a good chance that case won't be resolved until after this season, meaning that Watson would be on the field game 7 no matter what. So if they are willing to settle for 10 or 12 games and it's substantial fine now, they're going to be ready to settle for that exact same thing after Harvey's decision.

It's the same hand they've had since day one. If not stronger.

All I can say, in the most respectful way possible, is that you seem to be dramatically overestimating how effective a potential NFLPA/Watson lawsuit against the NFL would be.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

All I can say, in the most respectful way possible, is that you seem to be dramatically overestimating how effective a potential NFLPA/Watson lawsuit against the NFL would be.

No. I'm saying that the chances are no worse, and perhaps slightly better because of Robinson's decision, than they were before. How good those chances actually are is a different question.

I also am not assuming that Harvey is just going to do whatever the NFL wants. It is entirely possible that he does that, but that isn't certain. And that's the biggest reason you wait to hear his decision before deciding how to proceed.

The only point I made was that it doesn't make sense to fold like a cheap suit at this point given that they already made the decision to go this far. Perhaps settling this thing before any of this began was the wisest course. But there is no rational explanation for why they would have taken it all the way to this point only to fold before Harvey lets them know his decision.

Now, it is possible that the parties agree that they will know the decision before it is made public, and so there is a window to come to a resolution. But that still would be premised on the union knowing what Harvey's decision is first.

 

[Triplethreat]

Wasn’t this shit supposed to be “expedited”

 

[CBBI]

No. I'm saying that the chances are no worse, and perhaps slightly better because of Robinson's decision, than they were before. How good those chances actually are is a different question.

I also am not assuming that Harvey is just going to do whatever the NFL wants. It is entirely possible that he does that, but that isn't certain. And that's the biggest reason you wait to hear his decision before deciding how to proceed.

The only point I made was that it doesn't make sense to fold like a cheap suit at this point given that they already made the decision to go this far. Perhaps settling this thing before any of this began was the wisest course. But there is no rational explanation for why they would have taken it all the way to this point only to fold before Harvey lets them know his decision.

Now, it is possible that the parties agree that they will know the decision before it is made public, and so there is a window to come to a resolution. But that still would be premised on the union knowing what Harvey's decision is first.

Again, no disrespect, but this just feels very naïve.

It would be great if Harvey was actually a completely neutral and unbiased party, but personally I think it's a bit silly to assume he is considering the NFL handpicked him. It seems like he's there to rule whatever the NFL has told him to rule, only with him *just* disconnected enough from the process to make it seem unbiased.

And I could be wrong here, but once Harvey makes formal his ruling, that's it, right? There's no negotiating a settlement after that to the best of my knowledge.

 

[shoes22]

And I could be wrong here, but once Harvey makes formal his ruling, that's it, right? There's no negotiating a settlement after that to the best of my knowledge.

Correct. Once Harvey issues a ruling that’s it. The process is over and that is what the punishment is, unless the NFLPA takes the NFL to court.

 

[CBBI]

Correct. Once Harvey issues a ruling that’s it. The process is over and that is what the punishment is, unless the NFLPA takes the NFL to court.

Right, so really... Watson has far less leverage than he had before (assuming Harvey's going to rule exactly the way the NFL desires him to rule) because now the NFL has the nuclear option to hold over his head which they didn't have before they appealed.

Basically I envision it like this...

Watson/NFLPA: We want 8 games and $5M

NFL: Not enough, we want 12 games and $10M

Watson/NFLPA: Too much!

NFL: Take what we just offered or we go a full year and still saddle you with a big financial hit as well.

Watson/NFLPA: Let me look at 12 games and $10M again

In my opinion, the only even slight leverage Watson has is the NFL's desire to NOT have this go to court, but even that has nothing to do with any sort of fear the NFL has about losing the suit or having damaging information released about their owners.

I think the NFL wants to avoid the circus of having one of the best players in the league actively suing and having that be in the headlines every week instead of the play on the field. That's the only reason IMO.