I hate to say it, but Burrow should be much better this year than last year. Even if he improves marginally as an individual, his offensive line jumped from below average to a top five squad.
Quarterback tiers:
Top: Mahomes, Rodgers, Allen, Brady - these guys run the league.
Franchise Guys: Herbert, Burrow, Stafford, Watson (off-field stuff kills him) Nobody will talk about their jobs in jeopardy even after a bad year.
Solid starters: D. Carr, Prescott, R. Wilson, L. Jackson - There is enough reason for concern to separate them from the Franchise title.
Middle of the road starters with upside: K. Murray, Mac Jones, Hurts, Lawrence - Others below them might hold them off, but they are young enough to have a higher ceiling.
Middle of nowhere starters: Cousins, Ryan, Tannehill, Jimmy G., Goff, Wentz - more likely to bottom out than rise up.
Young with pressure: Mayfield, Fields, T. Lance, Tagovailoa, Z. Wilson, D. Mills, D. Jones - my money is on Lance and Fields to separate and rise