Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

[CATS44]

Urshela was a bust until he got to New York so technically he has to be added to the success department...

Also you two have different definitions so this argument won't honestly be anything but comparing apples to oranges type of deal...

@CDAV45 @CATS44

Maybe we should kind of get a standard system that everyone agrees on that says whether or not a prospect is a bust or not... How many fWAR after 5 seasons after MLB debut due they need to be considered a non-bust? I think by that time normally a player has had enough time to prove one way or they other...

But the expectations are that our upper level prospects are gonna produce instantly.

Morgan or one of the others will come close to equaling Plesac or Civale. We can easily replace Ameds production tomorrow.

By that definition, and by history, there is a 16% chance that either one will happen.

There is no way that anybody can list Urshela as a success for us.

And thats the point. Many don't want to trade any of our upper level prospects, esp for a known player, because that player may be 'only' a 2-2.5 WAR player.

I wish we had a roster full of 2-2.5 WAR players to go with JRam.

We don't want to trade anything of value for an Ian Happ or a McNeil. Many want to trade away Gimenez, because he hasn't been an instant star.

And yet, if projected over 600 PAs...a full season...all three are close to 3 WAR players or better.

Put Amed at short every day and don't screw around with him. The same with Gimenez at second. The same with Straw in center.

Fix what needs to be fixed by using the excess MIF talent we have in the minors. Dont mess with what doesn't need fixed.

 

[CATS44]

If you want to go by 600 PAs to rate a career, that's one way to look at it, but doesn't fit the description.

Zimmer has been worth 2.6 fWAR since arriving on the scene in 2017....five years.
Per 600 PAs, he has been worth 1.8 fWAR.

I dont care how you slice and dice it, if any of Roccio, Freeman, Valera, Jones Arias, Palacios, et al, accumulate 2.6 fWAR thru 2026 he will not be considered a success here.

 

[petes999]

If you want to go by 600 PAs to rate a career, that's one way to look at it, but doesn't fit the description.

Zimmer has been worth 2.6 fWAR since arriving on the scene in 2017....five years.
Per 600 PAs, he has been worth 1.8 fWAR.

I dont care how you slice and dice it, if any of Roccio, Freeman, Valera, Jones Arias, Palacios, et al, accumulate 2.6 fWAR thru 2026 he will not be considered a success here.

I was agreeing with most of your analysis but just trying to point out Yandy and his 1.6 War last year in 465 at bats is 2.0 on 600 AB. But as he didn’t have full time role in first 2 years in Cle and then Covid year, so it is 4.7 WAR in 5 years.

For me, he is marginal player who like Urshella needs another year to see which way they go. Yet, for a marginal top-10 rank like Diaz, I wouldn’t expect stardom anyways. Just someone who can get you that 2-2.5 WAR after a year or two transition which he is close too.

Now a top 100 player like Lindor should break out quickly and do 3+ War

 

[rcristal]

No they wouldn't. It starts with Espino and goes from there. We've already attempted to deal for Reynolds at least 2 times and the asking price is just too much. I wouldn't give that type of package for him either. Giving up a good portion of our elite prospects won't and shouldn't happen for any 1 player. There are other options. CATS will have you believe that the failure for prospects is 70%. If that's the case then ditching what looks like the best prospects will only worsen that statistic. Cleveland's farm does not exist to solely use to trade for established MLB talent. In fact, recent history suggests that they are more likely to deal from an area of MLB depth. We'll see what happens when this stupid lockout is over.

Would I give up Espino?
No, no and Heck no.

Rcristal

 

[Criznit]

So I usually don't speculate on too many trades, but...... It sure does seem like a three way trade with the As, Guardians and Blue Jays lines up pretty good. As does a trade with the Giants.

Both Bay Area teams line up well trade-wise for us IMO.

 

[sportscoach]

Would I give up Espino?
No, no and Heck no.

Rcristal

If ya want Reynolds, you have to give up Espino...

 

[CDAV45]

Would I give up Espino?
No, no and Heck no.

Rcristal

Thing is I don't think they should settle for anything less for a player like Reynolds. This is why these type of trades don't happen very often IMO.

 

[Gson]

So I usually don't speculate on too many trades, but...... It sure does seem like a three way trade with the As, Guardians and Blue Jays lines up pretty good. As does a trade with the Giants.

Both Bay Area teams line up well trade-wise for us IMO.

Or... A's Guardians and Seattle..

Both three way deals offer some interesting possibilities..

 

[CATS44]

Again, we are talking about a very good SP prospect that has about a 30% chance of being a productive MLB pitcher as part of a package for four years of a 3.5-4 WAR player.

It obviously depends upon the rest of the package, but thats a trade I would make every day.

Esp when we have at least ten good looking, young SPs ahead of him....and are looking at 2022 outfield candidates of Zimmer, Mercado, Kwan, and Palacios.

But the baseball science deniers will insist that Espino is gonna win the Cy Young, or at least be a sure fire FOR the day he takes the mound in Cleveland.

Even if no other upgrades are added to the present team, the addition of Reynolds to pair up with JRam, Franmil, Straw, and Amed puts us right there with Chicago.

Would you trade MacKenzie Gore for Reynolds?

Jesus Luzardo?
Nate Pearson?
Matt Manning?
Dustin May?
Casey Mize?
Forrest Whitley?
Brandon McKay?
Luis Patino?
AJ Puk?
Spencer Howard?
Michael Kopeck?
Grayson Rodriguez?
Mitch Keller?
Deivi Garcia?
Ian Anderson?
Logan Gilbert?

Thats the complete list of SP prospects in 2020 that were rated higher than Espino is now, both on ranking and FV.

If you won't trade Espino now, you wouldn't have traded any of them in 2020.

But most of them...a vast majority...you would today.

All but one of them, except Rodriguez, were at least a level ahead of where Espino is.

Unless you truly believe that Espino will come out of the gate better than EVERY ONE of them, the best you can hope for is that he will match Andersons 3 fWAR by the end of 2024.

Which means you are more interested in 2025 and beyond than you are about the next three seasons.

 

[KluberSociety]

Kirk is 5'8 and weighs as much as Franmil.

Realistically, how many games can he catch in a season at 265 pounds? The most he's ever played at any level is 92.

So, you are talking about a part time catcher that might get 300 PAs.

He is a DH, and we have a DH.

I'm not sure we'd even want him clogging up our 26 man roster.

It really depends on if we felt confident sticking Franmil in the field at all. Franmil has gotten reps at 1B before, and has OF experience. I would rather avoid him in the OF though.

You could go:
Hedges C, Kirk DH, Reyes 1B vs LHP (Bradley was terrible against lefties and I doubt he'll be good against them this year either)
Kirk/Hedges C, Reyes DH, Bradley 1B vs RHP

I have no clue about Franmil's ability to play 1B but in effect the addition of Kirk is able to both boost the offense and back up C. He could easily get 500 PA in this role.

So what if he's short and fat? He is a natural hitter who should only get better.

Now imagine a lineup of:

1. Outfielder, potentially acquired
2. JRam
3. Kirk
4. Reyes
5. Bradley/Rosario

Starts to look a lot better, huh?

 

[sportscoach]

Or... A's Guardians and Seattle..

Both three way deals offer some interesting possibilities..

I dont think Seattle has the extra MLB hitting talent that Blue Jays can do. If Chapman goes to Toronto then someone in the INF goes to the OF... if they can get another SP in the deal as well, it could really improve the roster...

It really depends on if we felt confident sticking Franmil in the field at all. Franmil has gotten reps at 1B before, and has OF experience. I would rather avoid him in the OF though.

You could go:
Hedges C, Kirk DH, Reyes 1B vs LHP (Bradley was terrible against lefties and I doubt he'll be good against them this year either)
Kirk/Hedges C, Reyes DH, Bradley 1B vs RHP

I have no clue about Franmil's ability to play 1B but in effect the addition of Kirk is able to both boost the offense and back up C. He could easily get 500 PA in this role.

So what if he's short and fat? He is a natural hitter who should only get better.

Now imagine a lineup of:

1. Outfielder, potentially acquired
2. JRam
3. Kirk
4. Reyes
5. Bradley/Rosario

Starts to look a lot better, huh?

If Reyes learns to play any position it would actually be RF. I have a hunch he hasn't fielded grounders much and that isn't as easy to some people as it is to others...

Kirk won't stay in the bigs unless he changes some habits...

 

[KluberSociety]

If Reyes learns to play any position it would actually be RF. I have a hunch he hasn't fielded grounders much and that isn't as easy to some people as it is to others...

Kirk won't stay in the bigs unless he changes some habits...

Kirk will have a spot due to his habit of hitting. It is speculated that Toronto would most like to trade Kirk, because he will get more back and they have 2 catchers who have experience with the staff and a 3rd prospect (Moreno) who will likely take their place at some point.

Re: Reyes, if he can't do a better job at 1B then he can at RF then I don't want to see him in the field. And then the Kirk trade probably goes out the window. I just don't know though. What you say is probably correct.

 

[rcristal]

If ya want Reynolds, you have to give up Espino...

Oh I, definitely want Reynolds but not that bad lol.
Rcristal

 

[Gson]

I dont think Seattle has the extra MLB hitting talent that Blue Jays can do. If Chapman goes to Toronto then someone in the INF goes to the OF... if they can get another SP in the deal as well, it could really improve the roster...



If Reyes learns to play any position it would actually be RF. I have a hunch he hasn't fielded grounders much and that isn't as easy to some people as it is to others...

Kirk won't stay in the bigs unless he changes some habits...

IDK what "extra" MLB hitting is.. I'm sure it's "variable"

Chapman would clearly end up in Seattle.. So could a very young pitcher from the Guardians not named Espino or Williams... A slightly discounted Laureano could end up in Seattle, as well.. Then, a young middle infielder from the Guardians would be sent to the A's.. With the addition of Laureano to Seattle, the M's would have whatever becomes whatever "extra" MLB hitting is in the form of a Mariners OF'er being to Cleveland. Some additional clutter/value will be added to eliminate the perceived / real imbalance.. Maybe a competitive balance lottery pick could be added to the booty the Guardians receive..

W/R to Franmill playing the field.. he acquitted himself as an at least adequate RF'er last season.. He can play a few games each month out there.. but.. he's still going to remain primarily a DH.. It should be noted that 1B is like the moon to him.. so, that's unlikely..

 

[CATS44]

Geesh.

Franmil is a DH. Lets not ruin a good thing by trying to make him something he isn't.

We are set and DH, 2B, SS, 3B, CF, and half our catching covered.

By mid season, we will have somebody out of Morris, Battenfield, Pilkington, Myers, and Allen, jr ready to join the rotation...and we have Allen, sr and Morgan to fill in if needed before then.

Our rotation is set, as is the closer. Our pen has four hard throwers and Sandlin in front of Clase.

Build from there.

In addition to having more SP prospects than we can possibly ever put in our rotation, we have more MIF prospects than we can possibly ever put in our lineup.

By now we should be sick of watching deeply flawed half players in the outfield and at first base....players that play defense but can't hit. Players that can't hit righties. Players that can't hit lefties. Players that can't catch a cold. Players that strike out a third of the time. Players that run fast, but have brains that seemingly don't work. Players who CANT STAY HEALTHY.

Its time to go out and get real ball players, not more of the same...and use the plentiful resources we have to do so.