Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

[rcristal]

I still believe we could trade for Mullins and Reynolds and keep Valares, Freeman, Jones, Riccio and our top three rated pitching prospects. I understand that we would lose a current rotation piece. However, we would be set, finally in the corners for several years and could, then focus on first base and catcher.
Losing highly regarded and MLB ready prospects is tough. I get it. But, the return would be well worth it.
Just my $.02.

Rcristal

 

[KluberSociety]

You sort of answered your own question.. if you trade for a catcher who has to be moved from being a catcher.. then why trade for him????... Kirk is a poor catcher.. W/R to the bat.. proven ?? might be stronger than you mean.. Using the SSS we have, .333/.375 to .273/.333 to .200/.313 are his BA/OBP for July, August and September, respectively for Corporal Kirk.. He was figured out.. throw in poor defense.. and he's not someone that makes much sense for the Guardians..

The small sample size should just be taken as one unit (and behind the surface, he actually had the best TTO stats in September, 4 HR with 9 BB and 7 K). But taken over all his PA, his batted ball quality was solid along with a great K/BB which led to a .377 xwOBA (which would be between Matt Olson and Pete Alonso). He's hit at every level and showed he can hit at the highest level in that sample. Now I don't expect him to be a top 20 MLB hitter like those 2 are, but he'd jump into our lineup today and be a top 3 hitter. He's only 23 years old and I don't expect us to have Franmil for much more than 2 years so I think he would be a good complement to Hedges during those 2 years while we also hope for Naylor and Lavastida to break through. We'll be losing Hedges next year possibly as well.

While I generally do favor catchers who are more of the defensive orientation, he is so far above most catchers offensively that I don't mind him at defense. I'd certainly rather him out there than Sandy Leon and the current crop of FAs. It's rare to find guys who have so much natural hitting talent.

 

[KluberSociety]

I still believe we could trade for Mullins and Reynolds and keep Valares, Freeman, Jones, Riccio and our top three rated pitching prospects. I understand that we would lose a current rotation piece. However, we would be set, finally in the corners for several years and could, then focus on first base and catcher.
Losing highly regarded and MLB ready prospects is tough. I get it. But, the return would be well worth it.
Just my $.02.

Rcristal

We actually know what the asking price for Reynolds was and it was exactly the guys you want to keep... Not a price I'm willing to pay. Not sure about Mullins though

 

[CDAV45]

Using MLBpipeline rankings(I'm not a fan, but for this general use they're fine) since 2014 through 2018 of Cleveland's top 10 prospects(not even top 100) I'll give you how many of that 10 have/had MLB careers.

2014- 8 of 10
2015- 8 of 10
2016- 8 of 10
2017- 7 of 10
2018- 8 of 10

I didn't bother counting every year of the top 100 prospects but I glanced at a few years and a large portion of those prospects are currently in MLB. The "failure" rate is not 70%, not even close.

 

[CDAV45]

I want nothing to do with this unless he transforms his body. He is not a C or any other positional player in all honestly. If he puts in the work to transform his body then maybe he is worthwhile.......maybe.

 

[rcristal]

We actually know what the asking price for Reynolds was and it was exactly the guys you want to keep... Not a price I'm willing to pay. Not sure about Mullins though

Pittsburgh would not consider Kwan, Palacios and Tana?

Rcristal

 

[KluberSociety]

Pittsburgh would not consider Kwan, Palacios and Tana?

Rcristal

They'd think they were being pranked

 

[KluberSociety]

I want nothing to do with this unless he transforms his body. He is not a C or any other positional player in all honestly. If he puts in the work to transform his body then maybe he is worthwhile.......maybe.
View attachment 8129

Well I think Guardians are good at conditioning so it'd be a good fit potentially. Yeah his body is a mess but if he's available (which I'd imagine he is because Toronto has been shuffling around DHs and already has a regular catcher and a backup) he could play catcher well enough to make it worthwhile to stick his bat in the lineup. We already have one defensive whiz, having a guy who can split the time behind the plate as well as come in late to pinch hit, would be very valuable. The only worry I'd have is that Franmil might have to play in the field somewhere.

He'd instantly be one of our 3 best hitters... with room to grow. There's very few "pure hitters" available with so much control, especially with the ability to play C. What you lose on defense will likely be gained back on offense and more.

And if we happen to get him before universal DH and then universal DH gets implemented then he's an appreciating asset. Not sure what's happening on that front though.

 

[CDAV45]

Well I think Guardians are good at conditioning so it'd be a good fit potentially. Yeah his body is a mess but if he's available (which I'd imagine he is because Toronto has been shuffling around DHs and already has a regular catcher and a backup) he could play catcher well enough to make it worthwhile to stick his bat in the lineup. We already have one defensive whiz, having a guy who can split the time behind the plate as well as come in late to pinch hit, would be very valuable. The only worry I'd have is that Franmil might have to play in the field somewhere.

He'd instantly be one of our 3 best hitters... with room to grow. There's very few "pure hitters" available with so much control, especially with the ability to play C. What you lose on defense will likely be gained back on offense and more.

And if we happen to get him before universal DH and then universal DH gets implemented then he's an appreciating asset. Not sure what's happening on that front though.

As long as the asking price is low. I'm not giving anything of real value for him at this point.

I think the DH in the NL is a forgone conclusion. It's just too beneficial to everyone not to be IMO.

 

[CATS44]

Using MLBpipeline rankings(I'm not a fan, but for this general use they're fine) since 2014 through 2018 of Cleveland's top 10 prospects(not even top 100) I'll give you how many of that 10 have/had MLB careers.

2014- 8 of 10
2015- 8 of 10
2016- 8 of 10
2017- 7 of 10
2018- 8 of 10

I didn't bother counting every year of the top 100 prospects but I glanced at a few years and a large portion of those prospects are currently in MLB. The "failure" rate is not 70%, not even close.

Getting to MLB and actually producing at that level are two different things.

Do you really count Zimmer, Frazier, Chang as successes?

I'm gonna use Fangraphs, because its easier for me to access...and I'm not counting anyone twice.

2014

Lindor....success
Frazier....bust
Cody Anderson...1.3 fWAR in three seasons.
Bauer...success
JRam...success
Naquin.....4.8 fWAR in six seasons
Wolters....1.7 fWAR in six seasons
Mejia....1.3 fWAR in five seasons
Paulino....bust
Rodriguez...bust

2015

Ramsey....bust
Sheffield.....1.5 fWAR in 4 years
Mitch Brown...bust
Urshela...1.6 fWAR in 6 years



2016

Zimmer...2.6 fWAR in five years
TMac....TBD...1.7 fWAR in two years
G Allen...bust
Bradley....-0.1 fWAR in two years
Benson...R5 eligible
Jones ....?
EGonz....bust
Chang....0.2 fWAR in three years
Aiken...bust

2017

Yandy....4.9 fWAR in five years
Holmes....bust

2018

Bieber...success
Haase...0.5 fWAR in three years
Castro....0.9 fWAR in three years

Thats 28 prospects.

Four successes so far...

Lindor
JRam
Bauer
Bieber

Too early to tell...

TMac
Jones

But if your expectation that any of our present top 10 are gonna step right in and produce, the other 26 have been failures. The best of the bunch has been Yandy, who has averaged 0.9 fWAR over 5 years.

In the BA evaluation I referenced, they set 1.5 WAR per season over six years as the breaking point between success and failure.

So ask yourself this...

If Arias comes up and puts up 4.9 WAR over the next five years, is he a success for us?

Not in my book.

Not counting TMac and Jones, the success rate of our top ten prospects 2014-2018 (5 years) has been 15%...four out of 26.

If you count Naquin and Yandy as successes, the rate is 23%

 

[sportscoach]

Getting to MLB and actually producing at that level are two different things.

Do you really count Zimmer, Frazier, Chang as successes?

I'm gonna use Fangraphs, because its easier for me to access...and I'm not counting anyone twice.

2014

Lindor....success
Frazier....bust
Cody Anderson...1.3 fWAR in three seasons.
Bauer...success
JRam...success
Naquin.....4.8 fWAR in six seasons
Wolters....1.7 fWAR in six seasons
Mejia....1.3 fWAR in five seasons
Paulino....bust
Rodriguez...bust

2015

Ramsey....bust
Sheffield.....1.5 fWAR in 4 years
Mitch Brown...bust
Urshela...1.6 fWAR in 6 years



2016

Zimmer...2.6 fWAR in five years
TMac....TBD...1.7 fWAR in two years
G Allen...bust
Bradley....-0.1 fWAR in two years
Benson...R5 eligible
Jones ....?
EGonz....bust
Chang....0.2 fWAR in three years
Aiken...bust

2017

Yandy....4.9 fWAR in five years
Holmes....bust

2018

Bieber...success
Haase...0.5 fWAR in three years
Castro....0.9 fWAR in three years

Thats 28 prospects.

Four successes so far...

Lindor
JRam
Bauer
Bieber

Too early to tell...

TMac
Jones

But if your expectation that any of our present top 10 are gonna step right in and produce, the other 26 have been failures. The best of the bunch has been Yandy, who has averaged 0.9 fWAR over 5 years.

In the BA evaluation I referenced, they set 1.5 WAR per season over six years as the breaking point between success and failure.

So ask yourself this...

If Arias comes up and puts up 4.9 WAR over the next five years, is he a success for us?

Not in my book.

Not counting TMac and Jones, the success rate of our top ten prospects 2014-2018 (5 years) has been 15%...four out of 26.

If you count Naquin and Yandy as successes, the rate is 23%

Urshela was a bust until he got to New York so technically he has to be added to the success department...

Also you two have different definitions so this argument won't honestly be anything but comparing apples to oranges type of deal...

@CDAV45 @CATS44

Maybe we should kind of get a standard system that everyone agrees on that says whether or not a prospect is a bust or not... How many fWAR after 5 seasons after MLB debut due they need to be considered a non-bust? I think by that time normally a player has had enough time to prove one way or they other...

 

[CATS44]

Kirk is 5'8 and weighs as much as Franmil.

Realistically, how many games can he catch in a season at 265 pounds? The most he's ever played at any level is 92.

So, you are talking about a part time catcher that might get 300 PAs.

He is a DH, and we have a DH.

I'm not sure we'd even want him clogging up our 26 man roster.

 

[CDAV45]

Urshela was a bust until he got to New York so technically he has to be added to the success department...

Also you two have different definitions so this argument won't honestly be anything but comparing apples to oranges type of deal...

@CDAV45 @CATS44

Maybe we should kind of get a standard system that everyone agrees on that says whether or not a prospect is a bust or not... How many fWAR after 5 seasons after MLB debut due they need to be considered a non-bust? I think by that time normally a player has had enough time to prove one way or they other...

I started to post a long response then yours popped up so we'll go with that.

 

[petes999]

Getting to MLB and actually producing at that level are two different things.

Do you really count Zimmer, Frazier, Chang as successes?

I'm gonna use Fangraphs, because its easier for me to access...and I'm not counting anyone twice.

2014

Lindor....success
Frazier....bust
Cody Anderson...1.3 fWAR in three seasons.
Bauer...success
JRam...success
Naquin.....4.8 fWAR in six seasons
Wolters....1.7 fWAR in six seasons
Mejia....1.3 fWAR in five seasons
Paulino....bust
Rodriguez...bust

2015

Ramsey....bust
Sheffield.....1.5 fWAR in 4 years
Mitch Brown...bust
Urshela...1.6 fWAR in 6 years



2016

Zimmer...2.6 fWAR in five years
TMac....TBD...1.7 fWAR in two years
G Allen...bust
Bradley....-0.1 fWAR in two years
Benson...R5 eligible
Jones ....?
EGonz....bust
Chang....0.2 fWAR in three years
Aiken...bust

2017

Yandy....4.9 fWAR in five years
Holmes....bust

2018

Bieber...success
Haase...0.5 fWAR in three years
Castro....0.9 fWAR in three years

Thats 28 prospects.

Four successes so far...

Lindor
JRam
Bauer
Bieber

Too early to tell...

TMac
Jones

But if your expectation that any of our present top 10 are gonna step right in and produce, the other 26 have been failures. The best of the bunch has been Yandy, who has averaged 0.9 fWAR over 5 years.

In the BA evaluation I referenced, they set 1.5 WAR per season over six years as the breaking point between success and failure.

So ask yourself this...

If Arias comes up and puts up 4.9 WAR over the next five years, is he a success for us?

Not in my book.

Not counting TMac and Jones, the success rate of our top ten prospects 2014-2018 (5 years) has been 15%...four out of 26.

If you count Naquin and Yandy as successes, the rate is 23%

Agree that 1.5 WAR is about right line for success/failure. But, it needs to be 600 AB type ratio to compensate for partial years breaking in and Covid year. There are some like Urshella who can rebound from 2021 and be success or be a 2 year wonder that pitchers finally figured out and bust.

Yet, on whole argument on rankings, it will be interesting in 2-3 years if they get better by using data analytics to augment the poor job that 4-5 people can do in scouting 1,000+ minor leaguers. Yet, the data right now is mainly behind mlb club proprietary domain. But, give it time and rankings will improve to a point — will never capture hard work/training/perseverance which to me account for at least 1/3 of way to succeed. You can have all talent in work and dominate in Hs/college but hit a wall when the talent level evens out and a players doesn’t know how to adjust - never needed to before.

 

[CDAV45]

Pittsburgh would not consider Kwan, Palacios and Tana?

Rcristal

No they wouldn't. It starts with Espino and goes from there. We've already attempted to deal for Reynolds at least 2 times and the asking price is just too much. I wouldn't give that type of package for him either. Giving up a good portion of our elite prospects won't and shouldn't happen for any 1 player. There are other options. CATS will have you believe that the failure for prospects is 70%. If that's the case then ditching what looks like the best prospects will only worsen that statistic. Cleveland's farm does not exist to solely use to trade for established MLB talent. In fact, recent history suggests that they are more likely to deal from an area of MLB depth. We'll see what happens when this stupid lockout is over.