Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

[sportscoach]

8.0 * 2797 / 600 = 2.4 WAR/600 PA

2021 was arguably his worst season to date, however I'd probably take 2021 Happ over 2017-2018 due to the K rates.

If he can play like he did in 2019-2020 in the majors then I'd like the move, however that does not seem like a sure thing and they look kind of flukey because he hit much better in the MLB in 2019 than he did in AAA where he hit for a wRC+ of 97.

I shouldn't have said "averages under 2 WAR" due to shortened seasons/time in minors but last season he would've been on pace for 1.45 which is a lot of my concern.

Maybe he'll put it together and be a 3 WAR player. Most likely, he will not. There are projections that have him at 2.5, but considering his recent performance I think there's a significant risk below that.



Re: the Renfroe trade

Red Sox effectively are paying cash as well on their side of the deal, and the "two prospects more highly rated than Palacios" likely will be rated below him in preseason 2022 rankings. They did also get JBJ though, a one-year potential reclamation project.



The present is that we're likely headed to a 3rd place finish regardless of if we trade for, or don't trade for, Happ, or a bunch of other players.

Saying things like "the future is now" does not make this any less true. A small market team needs to take advantage of nebulous opportunities and roll the dice, and know where to cut losses. We strongly need an exit plan for 2022, to roll back our talent to compete in years to come in that nebulous future.

Let's see 2022 World Series odds for AL Central teams (from DraftKings):
White Sox +1100
Tigers +4000
Guardians +7500
Twins +8000
Royals +8000

As the saying goes, gotta know when to hold and when to fold.

Considering it is likely that no team from the Central will even make it to the Wild Card game, and Guardians are looking closer to a 5th place team than a 2nd place team even, I'd love to see why "the future is now".

Let me ask you something, how are the Tigers that much better than the Guardians?

Guardians have the better rotation without a doubt... I think they are badly underestimating the team personally.

 

[KluberSociety]

Let me ask you something, how are the Tigers that much better than the Guardians?

Guardians have the better rotation without a doubt... I think they are badly underestimating the team personally.

Personally I think with a few pickups we'll be about even with them. Still don't think that puts us in great contention though. Which is why I'd rather go with the budget buys and then make a move at the deadline depending on what direction we go. I guess Happ for Palacios could be considered a budget buy but I just don't like selling low on Richie when he could even start next year in the majors.

 

[sportscoach]

Personally I think with a few pickups we'll be about even with them. Still don't think that puts us in great contention though. Which is why I'd rather go with the budget buys and then make a move at the deadline depending on what direction we go. I guess Happ for Palacios could be considered a budget buy but I just don't like selling low on Richie when he could even start next year in the majors.

I really don't think the Tigers are any better than the Guardians... SP is leaning towards the Guardians overall while the lineup leans towards the Tigers, but normally better pitching Wins over hitting...

 

[Gson]

Manning Skubal Mize and Turnbull have gotten their feet wet at the ML Level.. All have talent.. The Tigers have signed Eduardo Rodriguez from the Red Sox.. and he's not shabby.. this is a pretty solid starting staff of young and talented arms.. They have more coming in the minors, but these are the guys they have now..

Right now.. IDK who's better.. but I do know that the Tigers aren't worse..

 

[sportscoach]

Manning Skubal Mize and Turnbull have gotten their feet wet at the ML Level.. All have talent.. The Tigers have signed Eduardo Rodriguez from the Red Sox.. and he's not shabby.. this is a pretty solid starting staff of young and talented arms.. They have more coming in the minors, but these are the guys they have now..

Right now.. IDK who's better.. but I do know that the Tigers aren't worse..

Cleveland was 17th in FIP while Detroit was 26th and for most of the season Cleveland was without their top three starters, while Mize and Skubal pitched the entire season... The addition of Rodriguez does help, but I don't see the Tigers being a better pitching staff than the Guardians if everyone is healthy on both sides.

 

[CATS44]

Between Tena and Palacios, I prefer to keep Palacios...closer by far to MLB and plays the outfield with a better bat.

************

Happ is a better player.

**************

If we add two quality bats...which I expect to do as GM (remember the basis of this thread)...we are better than Detroit and pretty close to Chicago.

We have the best rotation, the best closer, and the best player. The right acquisition could give us the best two players.

If you sit and wait until every one of the 30% of our prospects that will succeed is producing at a 2-3 WAR level, you will never be a contender.

The White Sox didn't win by just waiting for their prospects. They won by supplementing their prospects with key big time additions.

Grandal
Lynn
Keuchel
Hendricks

Thats three CY candidates and a MVP candidate.

Without those four, they are a sub .500 team.

************

Detroit wasn't a better team than us and wouldn't be if it waited for all those prospects to arrive and produce. In the last two months they've added Grossman, Baez, Barnhart, and Rodriguez. If they hadn't added those four, nobody would be talking about them passing us.

**********

Teams in rebuilding wait for their prospects. We are not rebuilding. We are in the same spot that Chicago was in two years ago and Detroit is now.

But if as GM, you prefer to wait...and wait...and wait, be my guest. Enjoy the games in Akron and Columbus. I much prefer winning in Cleveland.

 

[rmacd]

Although 4 yrs younger Tena outproduced Palacios in the AFL and was ranked in the top 20 for the league. It might not turn out that way but Tena more likely to stick in the Majors.

 

[CDAV45]

Between Tena and Palacios, I prefer to keep Palacios...closer by far to MLB and plays the outfield with a better bat.

************

Happ is a better player.

**************

If we add two quality bats...which I expect to do as GM (remember the basis of this thread)...we are better than Detroit and pretty close to Chicago.

We have the best rotation, the best closer, and the best player. The right acquisition could give us the best two players.

If you sit and wait until every one of the 30% of our prospects that will succeed is producing at a 2-3 WAR level, you will never be a contender.

The White Sox didn't win by just waiting for their prospects. They won by supplementing their prospects with key big time additions.

Grandal
Lynn
Keuchel
Hendricks

Thats three CY candidates and a MVP candidate.

Without those four, they are a sub .500 team.

************

Detroit wasn't a better team than us and wouldn't be if it waited for all those prospects to arrive and produce. In the last two months they've added Grossman, Baez, Barnhart, and Rodriguez. If they hadn't added those four, nobody would be talking about them passing us.

**********

Teams in rebuilding wait for their prospects. We are not rebuilding. We are in the same spot that Chicago was in two years ago and Detroit is now.

But if as GM, you prefer to wait...and wait...and wait, be my guest. Enjoy the games in Akron and Columbus. I much prefer winning in Cleveland.

No.....Happ is not a better player.

Who are you even debating with? Nobody is opposed to making a trade or 2 to improve this team. Who we are willing to trade is probably where the dispute lies, but you don't argue that. Instead, you make some broad, stupid claim about sitting idle and watching Akron and Columbus games.

Clearly the Guardians aren't going to be signing anyone like Grandal, Lynn, Kuechal, or Hendricks. Mostly because there are very few players of that quality remaining in FA and they're too damn expensive for Cleveland.

Well, Detroit did add those 4 and didn't lose a single top prospect in doing so. On paper adding Baez, Barnhardt, and Rodriguez make them a better club. Grossman is a solid piece, but nothing spectacular. What makes the Tigers a potentially dangerous team is the homegrown talent being enhanced with the additions of Baez, Barnhardt, Rodriguez, and Grossman. They still have Torkelson and Greene fast approaching as well. Detroit is not an example of what you would like the Guardians to do.

 

[Gson]

No.....Happ is not a better player.

Who are you even debating with? Nobody is opposed to making a trade or 2 to improve this team. Who we are willing to trade is probably where the dispute lies, but you don't argue that. Instead, you make some broad, stupid claim about sitting idle and watching Akron and Columbus games.

Clearly the Guardians aren't going to be signing anyone like Grandal, Lynn, Kuechal, or Hendricks. Mostly because there are very few players of that quality remaining in FA and they're too damn expensive for Cleveland.

Well, Detroit did add those 4 and didn't lose a single top prospect in doing so. On paper adding Baez, Barnhardt, and Rodriguez make them a better club. Grossman is a solid piece, but nothing spectacular. What makes the Tigers a potentially dangerous team is the homegrown talent being enhanced with the additions of Baez, Barnhardt, Rodriguez, and Grossman. They still have Torkelson and Greene fast approaching as well. Detroit is not an example of what you would like the Guardians to do.

The tigers won't be pussy cats.. they're putting together a strong starting staff.. have solid veteran leadership and a field general in their dugout as good as anyone.. Will they finish ahead of the Guardians.. maybe..maybe not.. but they're clearly entering into a widening window of competitiveness.. & that's all they've done at this time.. Proving it on the field.. is their next steps.. If their results match the last 120 games of the 2021 season.. they will be formidable..

 

[Criznit]

The tigers won't be pussy cats.. they're putting together a strong starting staff.. have solid veteran leadership and a field general in their dugout as good as anyone.. Will they finish ahead of the Guardians.. maybe..maybe not.. but they're clearly entering into a widening window of competitiveness.. & that's all they've done at this time.. Proving it on the field.. is their next steps.. If their results match the last 120 games of the 2021 season.. they will be formidable..

KC also has some talent closing in on the show. Maybe not on the mound so much, but if things break right for them... Could be swinging some heavy lumber in a season or 2.

Best bet for the tribe in 2022 is everyone beating up on each other and keeping each others records as close as possible.

 

[Gson]

KC also has some talent closing in on the show. Maybe not on the mound so much, but if things break right for them... Could be swinging some heavy lumber in a season or 2.

Best bet for the tribe in 2022 is everyone beating up on each other and keeping each others records as close as possible.

I'm not as sold on the Royals talent as much as the Tigers.. but, that's just an unsupported opinion..

For the Guardians to matter in the coming 2022 season.. imo.. they need to have themselves as well as on of the other three teams beat up on the CWSox... while splitting with two others.. While I doubt we'll see an 18-1 record (but wasn't it great !!).. a 13-6 or 14-5 would do the trick against the pale hose..

... insert baseball cliche.... they have to play them one at a time.. blah blah blah..

We'll see..

 

[KluberSociety]

Although 4 yrs younger Tena outproduced Palacios in the AFL and was ranked in the top 20 for the league. It might not turn out that way but Tena more likely to stick in the Majors.

Very small sample size, and Palacios still hit very well. He also tore up AA/AAA with great OBPs, which Tena has yet to even reach.

The ceiling may be higher with Tena but he is still probably 2 years away, and he hasn't demonstrated what Richie has, who could probably be thrown out there on day 1 of 2022 and not be overmatched. As @MadThinker88 mentioned, Tena may be slightly higher value overall but Palacios fits our needs more.

I've got nothing against trading one of Palacios/Kwan if they appear to be redundant and blocking each other for playing time, but timing wise I guess I see it more as a midseason move.

 

[Criznit]

I'm not as sold on the Royals talent as much as the Tigers.. but, that's just an unsupported opinion..

For the Guardians to matter in the coming 2022 season.. imo.. they need to have themselves as well as on of the other three teams beat up on the CWSox... while splitting with two others.. While I doubt we'll see an 18-1 record (but wasn't it great !!).. a 13-6 or 14-5 would do the trick against the pale hose..

... insert baseball cliche.... they have to play them one at a time.. blah blah blah..

We'll see..

Pretty much this.

If 85-90 wins pull the division we have a chance.. A win total above 90 probably means it's not the Guardians... Of course this is considering current roster setup, and my opinion could be in a completely different key when the season starts.

 

[CATS44]

If the rotation had been intact, the 2021 team was a 88-90 win group.

We've added Straw for a whole season.

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The few who are willing to trade prospects for upgrades aren't willing to trade the prospects who have enough value to acquire those upgrades. Thats the same as not being willing to trade prospects at all.

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A little comparison of career numbers:

Age....27/29
PAs....1797/2161
OBP....338/297
SLG....467/490
OPS....805/787
wRC+....112/106
oWAR...26.7/11.5
dWAR...-7.3/-24
fWAR....8/5.8

The first player has played every position on the field, except C and SS. The second has, except for 2 games, played exclusively in the OF.


The first player by every account is far superior. Look esp at OBP, oWAR, and dWAR.

 

[Gson]

Pretty much this.

If 85-90 wins pull the division we have a chance.. A win total above 90 probably means it's not the Guardians... Of course this is considering current roster setup, and my opinion could be in a completely different key when the season starts.

yes.. a lower win total does favor a team that has consistency issues with offense.. that could be very true.. BTW, that same team usually is ALWAYS in every game, but, can't win very often when they only score 0, 1 or 2 runs in the game..