Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

[CDAV45]

I have no idea what the Cubs are doing.

On one hand they look like they are rebuilding, but on the other hand they look like they are tooling up for a run at coretooled,

A rotation that begins Stroman-Hebdricks-Miley is only one SP away from being contention worthy.

I had them as the second most likely trade partner for us, but now I have major doubts.

They now have $15 mil tied up in two catchers, with a decent looking prospect that could be ready by mid season, but at least by 2023. One way or the other, Contreras is gonna be moved by the deadline....unless they are in contention.

********

Nico Horner is not a better player than Amed...not even close.

*********

Depending on what the Cubs are, contender or retooler, they would probably have big interest in what we have....MLB ready SS and SP.

********

I put Happ in the same general category as Amed. Both are players who arrived very young, both still fairly young...with a reasonable expectation of remaining upside.

I dont like the strike outs, but he does get on base, has 25 HR pop, is a switch hitter with defensive flexibility. He is a better than average...not great...base runner. He has a 112 career wRC+. His big problem is that he is prone to severe month long slumps. If he plays full time, I envision a close to 3 WAR player.

Not at the top of my list, but I'd like to have him, because he would be a significant upgrade...but only for two years. I'd much prefer three years of control.

If all it took was Palacios, I'd do it in a heartbeat, but it would take more.

Several points I agree with CATS.
1. I have no idea what the Cubs are doing either.
2. Contreras is going to get moved.
3. Hoerner is not a better player than Amed. In fact, I'll take Amed every time thank you.
4. They absolutely have interest in what we have. We can assume this because the guy running the Cubs now help build it.
5. I think putting Happ and Amed in the same general category is fair, but they bring different intangibles to the table. Which do the Guardians need more?

As far as Palacios for Happ, if you held a gun to my head I'd probably do the same honestly. I'm reluctant because clearly they see something in Palacios and his performance at every stop has been impressive this year. Yes, there is an argument that he'll come to Cleveland and fail. However, there is also an argument that he could be traded for Happ and looked back upon with regret. In the end, I'd like to see Happ and Contreras in Cleveland. I would be satisfied with starting the season as those 2 being the "big additions" although they could probably do more. Wasn't long ago that I stated "give me Gomes, Happ, and Garcia and let's role with it". Well, if you give me Contreras, Happ, (insert good corner OF here) then that's pretty much the same isn't it?

 

[Tondo]

You just want him because he's from Cleveland (Twinsburg), don't you.

Ha, I honestly didn't know that and I've never seen Effross pitch, pure stat line scouting, lol.
What do you think of the trade, too much, too little?

 

[sportscoach]

Ha, I honestly didn't know that and I've never seen Effross pitch, pure stat line scouting, lol.
What do you think of the trade, too much, too little?

It's hard to say what Effross is worth... he is 27, has limited MLB experienced and has a new arm slot which he switched to in 2019... The numbers say he has really been able to make the arm slot change.. Also he said he had very good rapport with the C Miguel Amaya in their farm system... Sounds like we just need to pick him up as well lol

 

[CATS44]

I'm not interested in trading any part of our rotation. I have always been allergic to trading MLB starting pitching, unless we are in the kind of situation we were in with our previous rotation.

What is instructive, though, is the fact that when we do trade SPs, we always get at least one pitcher in return....usually more and often with at least some MLB experience.

IF we were to trade Plesac, we would have to get a somewhat proven MLB SP in return.

Without Plesac, we would go into the season with only five SPs with MLB experience...unless you count Allen and Hentges, which I dont. We would also have only four who have shown any kind of MLB success.

So, when looking at possible trades involving Plesac, look for a possible SP in return that covers us in 2022.

An example (I'm not advocating, just giving an example) is what to look for in a trade that involved Plesac and Marte. Merrill Kelly could fill a spot in the rotation for one year.

 

[Gson]

I'm not interested in trading any part of our rotation. I have always been allergic to trading MLB starting pitching, unless we are in the kind of situation we were in with our previous rotation.

What is instructive, though, is the fact that when we do trade SPs, we always get at least one pitcher in return....usually more and often with at least some MLB experience.

IF we were to trade Plesac, we would have to get a somewhat proven MLB SP in return.

Without Plesac, we would go into the season with only five SPs with MLB experience...unless you count Allen and Hentges, which I dont. We would also have only four who have shown any kind of MLB success.

So, when looking at possible trades involving Plesac, look for a possible SP in return that covers us in 2022.

An example (I'm not advocating, just giving an example) is what to look for in a trade that involved Plesac and Marte. Merrill Kelly could fill a spot in the rotation for one year.

Like Gimenez/Sandlin/Plesac for Adell/Detmers

 

[sportscoach]

Like Gimenez/Sandlin/Plesac for Adell/Detmers

I dont think Detmers is going anywhere even if they get an SP back...

 

[Gson]

I dont think Detmers is going anywhere even if they get an SP back...

sure he will..

 

[Criznit]

I am not too hot on trading a MLB level SP, but if someone really wants Plesac or dare I say even TMac, we will at least listen. We should have enough options in AA/AAA to absorb the loss, may take a year though.

 

[KluberSociety]

I'll take the contrarian side on the Palacios/Happ trade. Happ may still be young-ish but has struggled recently with the bat, and averages under 2 WAR. Over the next 2 seasons, sure I'll take the proven guy but you're getting 3x more Palacios for the price of 1 Happ and I wouldn't even think before saying no to that. Richie has already shown he can hit reasonably well at the AAA level and has speed and more defensive potential.

If we have a reason to believe he truly is set up for failure then sure I guess we could sell low, but that's exactly what it'd be.

 

[Gson]

I am not too hot on trading a MLB level SP, but if someone really wants Plesac or dare I say even TMac, we will at least listen. We should have enough options in AA/AAA to absorb the loss, may take a year though.

If there's any area where the depth of the Guardians squad can be considered strongest.. ML ready or near ML ready SP is the spot.. In the the rejected example: Amed&Plesac / Detmer&Adell deal.. there were two other guys from both sides in the deal.. including Sandlin from the Guardians side.. It was a pretty even deal..

 

[CATS44]

Over 600 PAs...basically a full season...Happ has been worth 2.7 fWAR, and there is growth potential. I will take that every time for a mid level prospect.

Milwaukee just traded two prospects more highly rated than Palacios for Renfroe and a salary dump. Happ is a far better player than Renfroe.

*********

No matter how you cut it, Adell and Detmer are prospects.

I wouldn't trade Plesac for Detmer, and I sure wouldn't trade Gimenez and Sandlin for Adell.

Over 600 PAs, Gimenez is worth about 3 fWAR.

*********

While its true that we have lots of young rotational depth, none of it is proven outside of our starting five. Criznit has it right when he says 'it may take a year' to cover any loss to the present rotation. It might even take two, unless everyone has forgotten the past season already. Every true rookie SP we tried last year crashed and burned.

********

The beat goes on for those who keep insisting that we trade the present for a nebulous future....and for those who want to clutch every prospect tightly while watching the division pass us by.

The future is now.

 

[MadThinker88]

@CATS44
I guess a valid question is which prospect are you more willing to deal (between Palacios & Tena) and why?

For me I am more willing to deal Tena as he is still multiple levels away and he plays a position where the team has massive amounts of depth already.
Palacios is at the cusp of MLB right now and depending on which direction the team goes he could have a role in the INF (2B) or OF (LF/CF).

IF Tena was getting playing time in the OF I would likely flip my preference on who to deal, but based on items as they are right now I deal Tena.
Of the 2 players I suspect Tena has more true value (although both are listed at the same value on the BTV site). If Tena does have more actual value, he should bring back a better return or require a lesser 2nd piece (compared to Palacios) to get a trade finished.

 

[CDAV45]

Ian Happ is not a "far better player than Renfroe". What the hell would anyone even base that off of to make such a crazy claim?

Not one single rookie pitcher last year is/was anywhere close to Morris, Allen, Pilkington, or Battenfield. Not only were they limited on the number of pitches they could throw, all but Morgan struggled to consistently throw strikes. Morgan has the pitches and control, but his floor is a lot lower. They can use Plesac or Civale along with some of the good, lower level prospects to add a couple of OFers or a C and not miss a beat. Hell, the rotation might even get better.

All this incessant carrying on about dealing the best upper level prospects that are damn near ready(if they aren't now) to help make this team a contender is lunacy. The future is when all the pieces come together with enough left over to get what is needed.

I'd deal Tena before Palacios for the exact reason I stated before. Palacios is damn near ready to help while Tena is a few years off.

 

[KluberSociety]

Over 600 PAs...basically a full season...Happ has been worth 2.7 fWAR, and there is growth potential. I will take that every time for a mid level prospect.

Milwaukee just traded two prospects more highly rated than Palacios for Renfroe and a salary dump. Happ is a far better player than Renfroe.

8.0 * 2797 / 600 = 2.4 WAR/600 PA

2021 was arguably his worst season to date, however I'd probably take 2021 Happ over 2017-2018 due to the K rates.

If he can play like he did in 2019-2020 in the majors then I'd like the move, however that does not seem like a sure thing and they look kind of flukey because he hit much better in the MLB in 2019 than he did in AAA where he hit for a wRC+ of 97.

I shouldn't have said "averages under 2 WAR" due to shortened seasons/time in minors but last season he would've been on pace for 1.45 which is a lot of my concern.

Maybe he'll put it together and be a 3 WAR player. Most likely, he will not. There are projections that have him at 2.5, but considering his recent performance I think there's a significant risk below that.



Re: the Renfroe trade

Red Sox effectively are paying cash as well on their side of the deal, and the "two prospects more highly rated than Palacios" likely will be rated below him in preseason 2022 rankings. They did also get JBJ though, a one-year potential reclamation project.

The beat goes on for those who keep insisting that we trade the present for a nebulous future....and for those who want to clutch every prospect tightly while watching the division pass us by.

The future is now.

The present is that we're likely headed to a 3rd place finish regardless of if we trade for, or don't trade for, Happ, or a bunch of other players.

Saying things like "the future is now" does not make this any less true. A small market team needs to take advantage of nebulous opportunities and roll the dice, and know where to cut losses. We strongly need an exit plan for 2022, to roll back our talent to compete in years to come in that nebulous future.

Let's see 2022 World Series odds for AL Central teams (from DraftKings):
White Sox +1100
Tigers +4000
Guardians +7500
Twins +8000
Royals +8000

As the saying goes, gotta know when to hold and when to fold.

Considering it is likely that no team from the Central will even make it to the Wild Card game, and Guardians are looking closer to a 5th place team than a 2nd place team even, I'd love to see why "the future is now".

 

[Gson]

8.0 * 2797 / 600 = 2.4 WAR/600 PA

2021 was arguably his worst season to date, however I'd probably take 2021 Happ over 2017-2018 due to the K rates.

If he can play like he did in 2019-2020 in the majors then I'd like the move, however that does not seem like a sure thing and they look kind of flukey because he hit much better in the MLB in 2019 than he did in AAA where he hit for a wRC+ of 97.

I shouldn't have said "averages under 2 WAR" due to shortened seasons/time in minors but last season he would've been on pace for 1.45 which is a lot of my concern.

Maybe he'll put it together and be a 3 WAR player. Most likely, he will not. There are projections that have him at 2.5, but considering his recent performance I think there's a significant risk below that.



Re: the Renfroe trade

Red Sox effectively are paying cash as well on their side of the deal, and the "two prospects more highly rated than Palacios" likely will be rated below him in preseason 2022 rankings. They did also get JBJ though, a one-year potential reclamation project.



The present is that we're likely headed to a 3rd place finish regardless of if we trade for, or don't trade for, Happ, or a bunch of other players.

Saying things like "the future is now" does not make this any less true. A small market team needs to take advantage of nebulous opportunities and roll the dice, and know where to cut losses. We strongly need an exit plan for 2022, to roll back our talent to compete in years to come in that nebulous future.

Let's see 2022 World Series odds for AL Central teams (from DraftKings):
White Sox +1100
Tigers +4000
Guardians +7500
Twins +8000
Royals +8000

As the saying goes, gotta know when to hold and when to fold.

Considering it is likely that no team from the Central will even make it to the Wild Card game, and Guardians are looking closer to a 5th place team than a 2nd place team even, I'd love to see why "the future is now".

Third place would be about right.. it would not surprise anyone if the Tigers and Guardians fight all the way through September to see who can grab second place in the AL Central.... but, if a deal can be made using our third or fourth SP (Plesac) from our very good rotation along with one of our 16 middle infielders (Amed or Andres w/Carson Tucker), a AAAA OF'er (Kwan) who may be given a real chance for some starts considering the Halos LF'er should be DH'ing and, finally, our fourth right handed relief pitcher (Sandlin) for a return of a "beyond being a prospect" LH MOR ML starter (Detmers) and a RHH ML OF'er (Adell) who plays all three OF spots along with a 2023/4 future OF & pitcher (Alexander Ramirez & Ky Bush), then 2022 isn't thrown away.. The only thing nebulous about the first two guys is when they break out.. not if.. The latter two guys will have a "nebulosity" label, but, so what?.. While it's not a comparison.. I'll take the upside of Detmers/Adell over Ian Happ and his windmill imitation... Willson Contreras might be worth trading for.. but he wouldn't be the first choice of many posters including myself.. What Willson Contreras brings is MLB experience and a short term / expensive contract at a spot that the Guardians are in desperate need of qualified bodies..

Pessimistically.. if neither Detmers or Adell contribute much.. then the Guardians finish in third.. IF they do contribute or break out, then second is a lock and the CWSox lead may be tighter than they'd like.. We'll see..