Four years of Plesac is worth more than 2.5 years of Clevinger or 1.5 years of Bauer. So look at the return for either of them as a starting point...and trade out the prospects they brought back for MLB production.
Morgan is 5-10.
Allen, Myers, and Burns are all 6-0.
Torres is 6-1.
Espino is 6-2.
Pilkington is 6-3.
The rest are at least 6-4.
Yeah we'll diverge again. There's nothing terribly wrong with Myers' mechanics and he repeats them well being the very good athlete that he is. Any scouting report that I've read says exactly that too. The arm action isn't real long, but I'd like to see it shortened a little and the effort is consistent and not over exerting. There is no noticeable difference in effort between any of his pitches.we'll diverge again..
Numbers.. especially minor league numbers have to be looked at with a bit of a jaundiced eye.. Sure, they're important..but what does his arm action look like.. does he repeat his delivery.. does he tip his pitches / change his motion when he's throwing a FB versus a change up or breaking ball.. Professional hitters are SO good at seeing changes by a pitcher that even the slightest variation can be devastating to their effectiveness..
The most important numbers that come from the minor leagues are, easily..., that he has numbers.. good or bad.. he's on the hill.. Good would be better.. and a progression even better...
On the hill for: ROK/Short Season/A-/A/A+/AA/AAA = IP's 30/50/70/100/120/140/140+..., respectively..
K Rate: stable; his K-rate stays basically the same or slightly rises as he rises through the MiLB system..
BB Rate: Reducing, but not eliminating.. this is the time to learn to throw on the plate = the definition of command.
Pitches per AB: stable in the lower minors and reducing as he climbs the minor league system
Pitch Sequencing: 35-60 % FB followed with an even mix of secondaries..
The effort in the delivery is also a huge key.. guys who sell out with effort.. are an injury waiting to happen.. Pitchers need to be like golfers.. they have to do their best work when their effort is in the 80 - 85 % range.. This last item..is what has me wary about Myers..
I'll get to the other guys.. but, my first pass at Myers.. he's worth looking at further, no doubt.. clearly more development is needed..
Don't know what this list refers to, but if it is reference to short pitchers...Sonny Gray
Jose Berrios
Julio Urias
Freddy Peralta
Marcus Stroman
Logan Webb
Jose Quintana
Most of these guys would be our #2 SP going into next season
I understand your concern with dealing one of the current SP. It's a legitimate concern. However, for this team to get to a competitive state in the 22 season while maintaining there outlook, there's probably going to be some risk involved. We'd have to rely on Morgan, Allen, Myers, Pilkington and Morris to fill the 5 spot for at least the first couple months of the season.A few thoughts that I will add to later....
Its not that StL won't trade Yepez, its that IMO they will want more in return than we think.
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Nootbaar is LH, and isn't a fit for our situation. He's more of what we have. Anyway, StL wouldn't trade both Yepez and Nootbaar, their two top candidates for DH.
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Folks keep proposing trades that include Plesac or Civale. Without a viable #6 SP that is more than emergency filler, the FO isn't gonna trade either before the season...unless the return in immediate upgrade is overwhelming, or a real MLB SP is part of the return.
(If we trade with the DBacks for a package including Carson Kelly, and received Merrill Kelly in return.)
The FO trades SPs at the deadline, when they have SP prospects that are truly ready to step in immediately and produce. Salary dumps...Kluber and Cookie...dont count, as none of our SPs have a high salary right now. When we traded Bauer and Clevinger, we already had replacements. We don't yet have a Bieber, Plesac, Civale to take over a rotation spot, but we should have by the deadline.
Besides, if the FO and Tito learned anything from last season, its that the adage that you can't have enough pitching holds true, even for a pitching factory like Cleveland.
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I'm not sure I could even speculate on which SP prospect will have the best career. I like them all, excepting Morgan. But I am also pessimistic about them all, because of the failure rate of even the best pitching prospects. Its the sheer volume of upper level SP prospects that is reason for real optimism.
If only two of them produce above average at the MLB level...and do it quickly...weve hit the jackpot. And I think as a minimum, thats likely.
I dont need a thousand words.Everybody knows that there are more tall pitchers than smaller one's, we don't need 1000 words from you to understand this. I just corrected your claim that there's only 1 around and btw, I just looked at the top 50ish SP of the past years plus threw in Quintana because I knew he was shorter, lol. There are more if go through the entire list, but I think I made my point.
And yes, there are simple biological reasons that there are less smaller pitchers, but also industry, scouting, drafting and development biases at work. Imagine you're a short two way player or a 6'4 one. Guess to which side of the field coaches talk you to.
I dont need a thousand words.
All I need are examples. Only two of the pitchers you listed are as short as Morgan. Several aren't even close.
The point is that the odds against Morgan becoming a reliable...both in results and consistent health....are so large as to be nearly negligible.
But if you like him as a regular rotation member, be my guest.
I'm betting the FO agrees with me, and we will see that soon enough.
The idea that he can give us as good a chance of winning as Plesac is ridiculous. The idea that he has a 'good chance' of being better than Plutko or Tomlin says all anybody should need to know.
If he is good enough to be a productive SP in MLB, only held back by being in this org, hopefully Antonettis phone is burning up.
I heard the same thing about EGonz, that he was a starting SS, except for Lindor. That was baloney, too.
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We've talked about Yepez earlier and had a debate about his trade value. Nobody really knows what the Cards would want in return...certainly not me.
But...
He was their MiLB offensive POY, and the general concensus in StL and national media is that he is the first option as the Card DH, if there is a DH. Therefore the Cards view him as a starter with six years of control.
On this board there are several that wouldn't trade Palacios for Happ. What on earth would they expect to get for Yepez?
I dont think Yepez would cost as little as some fans think. I dont think that BTV values apply. IMO he would cost a pitching prospect most fans wouldn't want to give up, and maybe something more.
But if the Cards think as highly of Morgan as this board does.....please, baseball gods, make that so.
Don't misrepresent me saying that there is plenty of room for Eli Morgan in MLB for him being some kind of underrated superstar waiting to bloom. The point was that good SP isn't an abundant resource for most teams so there is room for guys like Eli which is why you still see guys like Harvey, Arrieta, Tomlin and numerous more getting jobs every single year. I'd say most here(including me) firmly believe that Morgan can outpitch someone like Harvey.I dont need a thousand words.
All I need are examples. Only two of the pitchers you listed are as short as Morgan. Several aren't even close.
The point is that the odds against Morgan becoming a reliable...both in results and consistent health....are so large as to be nearly negligible.
But if you like him as a regular rotation member, be my guest.
I'm betting the FO agrees with me, and we will see that soon enough.
The idea that he can give us as good a chance of winning as Plesac is ridiculous. The idea that he has a 'good chance' of being better than Plutko or Tomlin says all anybody should need to know.
If he is good enough to be a productive SP in MLB, only held back by being in this org, hopefully Antonettis phone is burning up.
I heard the same thing about EGonz, that he was a starting SS, except for Lindor. That was baloney, too.
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We've talked about Yepez earlier and had a debate about his trade value. Nobody really knows what the Cards would want in return...certainly not me.
But...
He was their MiLB offensive POY, and the general concensus in StL and national media is that he is the first option as the Card DH, if there is a DH. Therefore the Cards view him as a starter with six years of control.
On this board there are several that wouldn't trade Palacios for Happ. What on earth would they expect to get for Yepez?
I dont think Yepez would cost as little as some fans think. I dont think that BTV values apply. IMO he would cost a pitching prospect most fans wouldn't want to give up, and maybe something more.
But if the Cards think as highly of Morgan as this board does.....please, baseball gods, make that so.
Don't misrepresent me saying that there is plenty of room for Eli Morgan in MLB for him being some kind of underrated superstar waiting to bloom. The point was that good SP isn't an abundant resource for most teams so there is room for guys like Eli which is why you still see guys like Harvey, Arrieta, Tomlin and numerous more getting jobs every single year. I'd say most here(including me) firmly believe that Morgan can outpitch someone like Harvey.
Nobody, especially me, said anything in the realm of "Morgan can give us as good a chance of winning as Plesac". Why do you continually do this? That would be the same as me saying that you don't think the offense needs to improve because you don't want to see Plesac traded. It's BS and poor form CATS. Morgan isn't going to bring back anything of value in a trade either. It's kinda been the point that Eli's value to Cleveland as a depth starter is probably more valuable than in a trade. Now, if he happens to get an opportunity and shines then that could certainly change. Is it possible that a non-contender could use a SP like Morgan while their prospects work their way in while at the same time have a productive corner OFer signed to a contract that doesn't fit their current agenda? I don't know....maybe? Maybe not?
So why is it you value Yepez so highly, but seem to see Palacios in such low regard? While you don't think that Yepez "would cost as little as some fans think" I would suggest that Palacios is more valuable than you think.
Edited to say that I have no idea who Chernoff is willing or wanting to trade or trade for. I have no idea what his intentions are, but I wish this lockout would fucking end so that we could have some real, substantive conversations about Guardian baseball instead of the current BS. I'm hanging on by a thread here.
It was actually LT Allen not Pilkington. Thanks for bringing that up though, I missed that one.Some interesting things I've read while snooping around. (Being retired and stuck under at least 16 inches of snow, I have lots of time to snoop.)...
Fangraphs has a fantasy centric column on unknown names to pick. Even though it's just fantasy baseball, counting stats tend to mean baseball production. The three top pitching suggestions were all Guardians prospects...Battenfield, Pilkington, and Mikolajchak. The top suggested offensive prospect was Kwan.
In a column on Yepez...he was one of only three MiLB players with at least 25 homers and a K rate under 20%. The other two were Anthony Volpe and Jose Miranda. That's pretty fair company.