Law's take on our top prospects:
Rocchio: "Rocchio got off to a slow start in Double A last year, although he was one of the youngest players in the Eastern League at age 21, but improved as the season went on, hitting .316/.383/.539 in his last 50 games (of 99) before he was promoted to Triple A for the last five weeks of the season. He’s a smaller guy but makes hard contact, hitting 15 homers in 2021 and 18 last year, although he puts the ball on the ground a little too often for this type of hitter. He’s always had a compact, direct swing, and over the past few years he’s learned to stay back on the ball, with great balance through contact. He hits well from both sides but his swing is slightly better right-handed. He’s an above-average defender at shortstop with good hands and 55 speed, although once again, he was bad at the whole basestealing thing, going 14-for-23 (61 percent) to bring his career success rate down to 64 percent. I guess it’s a good thing he can field, hit, and hit for power. He could stand to walk a little more, although some of his impatience may stem from him always being young for his levels, and he needs to continue to put the ball in the air. I still see All-Star upside here, a shortstop who saves a few runs a year with his glove and adds a ton more with .280-.300 averages, adequate walk rates, and 15-20 homers a year."
Valera: "Valera and Rocchio have been on nearly parallel tracks the last two years, moving up from High A to Double A and then Double A to Triple A within two weeks of each other. Rocchio is the safer bet with the higher floor, but Valera offers more upside, especially with the bat, where he could be a high-OBP, 30-homer guy if he can keep his contact rate intact. Valera works the count extremely well, rarely chasing fastballs out of the zone, and is comfortable hitting with two strikes, only expanding slightly in those counts. He has very easy power to pull and the other way, with 30 homers a realistic projection for him, especially as he continues to learn which pitches to take and which to attack. After barely facing southpaws in 2021, he showed only a small platoon split in 2022, hitting better against right-handers but making almost as much contact against lefties. He’s a “flashy” player, but I say that as a compliment, as I think the game needs more guys who play with flair and energy. With average defense in right, he could be a huge impact bat who has OBPs near .400 with the aforementioned power, as long as he can hold or reduce his strikeout rate (25.6 percent last year) as he moves up the ladder."
Espino: "Espino looked incredible in spring training and in April, when he made four starts for Akron and punched out 35 of the 68 hitters he faced — not literally, that would be battery — for a strikeout rate of 51.4 percent. Then he suffered patellar tendinitis in his knee, going on the injured list in May … and never returned, as his shoulder came up sore while he was trying to return from the knee injury in late June and early July. When healthy, he shows a four-seamer in the mid- to upper-90s, touching 100, that he works with up in the zone, and then works down with a plus slider with fierce vertical break. He has a curveball that he’s largely dismissed in favor of the slider, and a changeup that’s still a work in progress but was mostly solid-average in late 2021. He also came out throwing strikes in 2022, which was the main area left for him to improve after his incredible season the year before. Now it’s down to health; he’s supposed to be ready for spring training, and if we had a crystal ball that said he was going to hold up all year, he’d be the Guardians’ top pitching prospect — which is really saying something."
Bibee: "Bibee is yet another command right-hander taken by Cleveland from a California college whose last name starts with B who has entered their system and seen his velocity jump from fringy to plus. The other guy was a fourth rounder, and Bibee was a fifth rounder, so the symmetry isn’t quite perfect, but work with me here. Bibee saw his velocity increase across most of the season, to the point where he hit 99 mph a few times in July and August, and was still sitting 93-97 when I saw him at the start of September. His fastball has some ride to it, but it’s probably his third-best pitch. He has a wipeout changeup at 82-84 with late, biting fade to it, and it’s so effective that hitters whiff on it more than half of the time they swing. (Maybe they should stop swinging?) He also has an above-average slider in the mid-80s, up to 88, with solid tilt, that he uses almost exclusively to right-handers, and a show-me curveball that looks pretty but that he probably shouldn’t use more than a few times a game. Even with the big jump in velo, he’s still a strike-thrower, with a walk rate of just 5.2 percent, thanks to a repeatable delivery that keeps him online to the plate, with added deception from his high three-quarters slot. He looks like a potential No. 2 starter, especially if he goes heavy changeup/slider and doesn’t rely too much on the fastball."
Williams: "Williams fell to the 23rd pick in the 2021 draft despite having clear top-10 stuff and results because some teams were concerned about the health of his back at the time. Cleveland has a history of taking pitchers with medical concerns in the first round, hitting on some (Danny Espino) and whiffing on others (Brady Aiken, Ethan Hankins). Williams might be another hit, as his elite fastball helped him tear through High A and Double A in his full-season debut last year, with strikeout rates of 40 percent and 29 percent at the two levels and an ERA on the season of just 1.96. His fastball is up to 98 mph and he’ll sit 95 with big-time vertical break, while his power slider is an above-average pitch at 86-89 and he’ll show an average curveball with good shape and tight spin. His changeup is a below-average pitch, lacking much deception or action, even though he has a good idea of when and how to use it. Lefties hit for 100 more points of OBP and 200 more points of slugging against him last year, yet he still struck a third of them out on the season, so there’s reason to think he can close that platoon split at least part of the way. The fastball/slider and his above-average control point to a No. 2 starter ceiling if he does."
Naylor: "Naylor returns to the top 100 after a year off the list — he was No. 42 going into 2021, but had such a disastrous year at the plate, hitting .189/.280/.332 in Double A after the off year and a two-level jump from Low A, that I couldn’t include him last year no matter how much I liked the player. Naylor returned to Double A to start 2022, hit well enough to earn a promotion to Triple A, then hit well enough there (.257/.366/.514) to get a brief call-up to the majors in September. Naylor is still quite young, turning 23 in late February, and shows a broad mix of skills as well as the athleticism to continue improving. He’s a disciplined hitter who doesn’t chase much and has fared better against breaking stuff than most hitters his age at the higher levels. He doesn’t miss many fastballs or changeups, and the power he showed in the minors last year (21 homers) is backed up by his solid contact quality and tendency to put the ball in the air, although he can get too pull-happy. He’s become a solid defender with work and time, but there is still skepticism around whether he stays there long-term. I think he’s a solid regular as a catcher who could also move to some other positions if needed, with mediocre batting averages but strong walk rates and 20-odd homers a year."
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