Rule 5 Talk 23

[sportscoach]

Let's get the Rule 5 discussion in here for the 23 season!

 

[sportscoach]

I understand the price generally. But here is the current 40 man, and here is the list of rule 5 eligible. Make sure you add Joey Cantillo and Will Benson’s name to the list, 2 guys unprotected in the past who have become prospects likely to be taken if not protected. You can’t protect all these guys. Relative to spending… can they afford to not trade some these guys and potentially lose them for nothing in the Rule 5?

40 Man

40-Man Roster

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

www.mlb.com

Rule 5 eligible (Add Cantillo/Benson)

I'm just moving this over to here since we don't want to have a super long convo in that thread...

From that list we likely will have to protect

OF Brennan
SS Martinez
C Bo Naylor
RHP Battenfield
RHP Curry

Then on the likely to add list...

RHP Gaddis
RHP Hankins
RHP Mikolajchak
RHP Torres JR
LHP Cantillo
OF Benson
SS Fermin

Then we have to figure out if we are doing anything with Call, Brooks, Garza, Scott, Fry, Tolman....

So anywhere from 5-12 players have a legit chance of being added to the 40 man roster. Plus we likely need to find a 3rd catcher so we may have to add one to that list...

At the moment we only have 2-3 spots available, so its gonna be hard to say we don't make a move to create space and/or get something back for these guys...

 

[Tondo]

Cantillo needs protection over both Battenfield and Curry.

Went through the 40 roster (currently at 39) and came up with maybe 7 openings (minus C position, where the picture is clear, need 3, Naylor will replace one vet and another will be (re)signed).

Karinchak, Morris and Vargas need added, so the math goes 42-7 = 35 (Naylor is already in there)

Martinez, Cantillo, Brennan, Battenfield, Gaddis for me, but Curry, Miko and Hankins need protection too. Don't think Torres gets considered with Call, Fermin and Benson looking like "tough" losses.

IOW, they can and should easily trade 3 to 6 from that group (or current 40 members) to maximize value from that roster depth

 

[Tondo]

That said, here's my trade list (note: Rosario, Shaw, Clement already among 7 openings as trade/DFA):

Arias
Tena
N. Jones
O. Miller
Plesac
Curry
Pilkington
Gaddis
Lavastida
Benson
Fermin
Call
Palacios

Should find plenty of good deals for any level of talent if you package some of those together (plus other prospects away from R5).

They almost have to make 2 huge deals to solidify the depth and improve the top of the roster

 

[Martyinnewyork]

Tough decisions ahead, even more so than this year! Definitely need to make a solid couple of deals as we could lose at least three with no return otherwise.

 

[petes999]

At the moment we only have 2-3 spots available, so its gonna be hard to say we don't make a move to create space and/or get something back for these guys...

Sorry, we got more than 2-3 spots (but need 2 more for Vargas/Morris). And, at this rate, we will send 2 guys for some rental ... But, as others accuse me of, this isn't the end of the world... we will lose 1-2 guys in Rule 5 (via last min trades for flyers like Myers or a reliever who wouldn't play for us) but right now Fermin and Benson have no future with Guardians and have little trade value. And most of 26 active rosters are locked in ... so we will be shedding some vets who are not projected to be on 26 man like a Gose or Sandlin -- but what value do they have on trade market right now? Single A flyer?

Pen Next Year - Clase, Stephan, Vargas, Morgan, Hentges, Santos, Karinchak (almost 100% lock for 7th guy) so Gose/Sandlin as 8th and cut other and then Miko, Curry, Gaddis, Morris in AAA for depth/swing roles

Starters (5) - Bieber, McK, Quant, Civale (Plesac possible trade)
AAA Guys on 40 -- Morris, Battenfield, Cantillo, Curry, Hankins

Locked In (15) - Bieber, McK, Quant, Civale, Morris, Batten, Cantillo, Hankins, Clase, Stephan, Vargas, Morgan, Hentges, Santos, Kar,
Bubble - last 5 in Plesac, Gose, Miko, Curry, Pilk ..... first 4 out Sandlin, Myers, Torres, Gaddis (like to keep him though somehow like Plesac trade)
Cuts - McCarty, Ramirez, Castro

As for position players, are they going to have Jones and Arias down in AAA for 3rd year? Problably not
Catchers (3) - Lava, Naylor, ???? (Maile/Hedges)
OF (6) - Straw, Oscar, Kwan, Palacios, Valera, Brennan (only 4 on 26 man)
DH (1) - Naylor
Infield on 26 (6) - Jose, Arias, Gimenez, Freeman, Jones/Miller at 1B
Other Inf in AAA/AA (4) - Rocchio, Tena, Noel, Martinez

Trades - Rosario, Reyes, Clement
Left off - Rodiguez (unless we only go 2 catchers), Delgado, Frias, Sanquintin, Benson, Fermin, Call

 

[DickyLeftridge]

That said, here's my trade list (note: Rosario, Shaw, Clement already among 7 openings as trade/DFA):

Arias
Tena
N. Jones
O. Miller
Plesac
Curry
Pilkington
Gaddis
Lavastida
Benson
Fermin
Call
Palacios

Should find plenty of good deals for any level of talent if you package some of those together (plus other prospects away from R5).

They almost have to make 2 huge deals to solidify the depth and improve the top of the roster

I'd add Logan Allen Junior and Burns.

As to Arias/Owen Miller, so your projected longterm MIF is Gimenez/Rocchio? Rocchio seems to really be struggling this year. I'd consider swapping him for Arias on your list.

Just minor nits. I like the list. Definitely think we have a really, REALLY strong list of tradeable assets. I also think like I've said for years now that you need to move them NOW. There are 5 major league starting pitching spots. I know you can never have enough pitching. But if a guy like Logan Allen Junior or Burns is 25-26 years old and still pitching primarily in AAA or performing a Pilkington/Swing Starter role, his value craters. We saw this with Chang. We saw this with Yandy Diaz. Many of these kids' value peaks their first year in AA or at least AAA. If you haven't figured out by then whether they are going to be a long-term option for you in Cleveland, you need to move them if that long-term spot is taken.

 

[sportscoach]

Sorry, we got more than 2-3 spots (but need 2 more for Vargas/Morris). And, at this rate, we will send 2 guys for some rental ... But, as others accuse me of, this isn't the end of the world... we will lose 1-2 guys in Rule 5 (via last min trades for flyers like Myers or a reliever who wouldn't play for us) but right now Fermin and Benson have no future with Guardians and have little trade value. And most of 26 active rosters are locked in ... so we will be shedding some vets who are not projected to be on 26 man like a Gose or Sandlin -- but what value do they have on trade market right now? Single A flyer?

Pen Next Year - Clase, Stephan, Vargas, Morgan, Hentges, Santos, Karinchak (almost 100% lock for 7th guy) so Gose/Sandlin as 8th and cut other and then Miko, Curry, Gaddis, Morris in AAA for depth/swing roles

Starters (5) - Bieber, McK, Quant, Civale (Plesac possible trade)
AAA Guys on 40 -- Morris, Battenfield, Cantillo, Curry, Hankins

Locked In (15) - Bieber, McK, Quant, Civale, Morris, Batten, Cantillo, Hankins, Clase, Stephan, Vargas, Morgan, Hentges, Santos, Kar,
Bubble - last 5 in Plesac, Gose, Miko, Curry, Pilk ..... first 4 out Sandlin, Myers, Torres, Gaddis (like to keep him though somehow like Plesac trade)
Cuts - McCarty, Ramirez, Castro

As for position players, are they going to have Jones and Arias down in AAA for 3rd year? Problably not
Catchers (3) - Lava, Naylor, ???? (Maile/Hedges)
OF (6) - Straw, Oscar, Kwan, Palacios, Valera, Brennan (only 4 on 26 man)
DH (1) - Naylor
Infield on 26 (6) - Jose, Arias, Gimenez, Freeman, Jones/Miller at 1B
Other Inf in AAA/AA (4) - Rocchio, Tena, Noel, Martinez

Trades - Rosario, Reyes, Clement
Left off - Rodiguez (unless we only go 2 catchers), Delgado, Frias, Sanquintin, Benson, Fermin, Call

My only point of 2-3 spots was at the end of the season, we have 2-3 guys on paper (Maile, Hedges are free agents and Shaw has a club option), who could be released that way. We have to make two spots for Morris and Vargas as well (Yohan and Castro/McCarty maybe? Mercado made the spot for Karinchak). Everyone else is either young or under team control... Which means guys like Allen, Burns, Williams, Espino, Bibbee etc, regardless of how they are doing aren't going to come even close to getting added to the 40 man roster.

So by the time the 40 man rosters have to be set...

Hedges and Maile are let go as Free Agents...

Shaw's club option is declined, but offer a minor league invited with incentives and an opt out.

Yohan, Castro and McCarty all DFA'd with a spring training deal. Gose I think gets the same treatment but gets a higher incentive deal and opt out like Shaw does.

Reyes, Rosario, Plesac, Tena and Myers all could be traded. Guys like Freeman, Jones one of Arias/Rocchio could get moved as well.

This creates the 10 ish spots we need...

So let's go... Tena, Myers, Freeman, Jones gets traded for an All-Star type like France of the Mariners? Hays of Baltimore etc

Next Reyes, Rosario and Plesac all get dealt for non-rule 5 prospects. I mean let's go get 10-12 lotto prospects...

Then we add...

OF Brennan
SS Martinez
C Bo Naylor
RHP Battenfield
RHP Curry
RHP Gaddis
RHP Hankins
RHP Mikolajchak
RHP Torres JR
LHP Cantillo
OF Benson
SS Fermin

I think we have room to sign a free agent C, keep a Reyes and/or Gose etc.

If we can pull one big trade with 4ish of our players from the 40 man, it's very possible to make this work and keep just about everyone we want to keep...

 

[petes999]

I'd add Logan Allen Junior and Burns.

As they were July '20 draftees, they are not subject to Rule 5 till Nov 2023 as w Espino. Thus, they will see action in 23 but we will wait until the annual 60 day DL is opened and we need their services ....

As for Burns and Allen, Bimbo has listed them in Top 5-7 top SP prospects (along with Espino, Williams, Hankins based on potential when healthy and Cantillo if healthy and I assume Bibee soon). He has Battenfield up there too but working on secondary control issues now. That means Curry, Gaddis, Pilk, Myers ... are in those swing roles and need to show they can do a Morgan transition or be trade bait. That also means Gose, Sandlin and other no flame throwing backend bullpen guys are vulnerable too.

 

[sportscoach]

It may depend on the number of guys they need to add to the 40 man roster in the offseason compared to the projected spots available. If they need to expose real quality in the rule 5 draft, then it makes sense to package guys now for a targeted upgrade. What does this offseason look like on the protected list?

This thread actually has most of your answers and honestly we could easily see 8-12 guys again who could be added and that's not including Espino, Williams, Allen etc who could all get MLB debuts in 23... its going to be another shuffle, so i wouldnt be surprised to see a 3/4 for 1 type of move...

 

[sportscoach]

@Mott the Hoople

We started the Rule 5 discussion here for Nov already!

 

[KluberSociety]

Rocchio seems to really be struggling this year. I'd consider swapping him for Arias on your list.

huh

 

[Criznit]

huh

these posts are from June, they should probably be ignored.

 

[sportscoach]

huh

Mott wanted to know about Rule 5, which we talked about a monthish ago in here. We can get this update. I am just gotta prep for surgery on my hand, so I have to kind of limit my typing lol

 

[petes999]

Sorry about your hand SC ... just getting healed on my surgery. Know how frustrating it is to do things one-handed. Good luck...

Here is my updated list from other places -- didn't think we would have a huge issue with needing to trade a whole bunch at deadline-- plus we can get some value by showcasing a few people for a few more months (like a Miller trade or Gaddis getting few more starts or Brennan staying AAA hot if Benson shows his former 1rd status).

On 40 man - (9) McCarty, Castro, Shaw, Gose, Clement, Call, Miller(?), Maile, Hedges (as the cost to add backup in March in add to Lava/Naylor isn’t that much)

Top 7 plus Morris - Naylor, Martinez, Cantillo, Hankins, Curry, Brennan, Battenfield
--------
Gets to 40 with 2 on 60-day DL

Who is left off - Gaddis, Miko, Misiaszek, G Rodriquez, J Rodriquez, Frias, Torres, - won’t get you much but low A fliers, Fermin (sub 200 in June and July -- how things change in a few months - one of our prospects could be injured and thus left off like Cantillo last year)

Doesn’t even count trading Reyes, Plesac or Rosario ...

22- Position players with Rosario, Reyes and Miller still on hot seat for Gaddis and Miko
C (2)- Naylor, Lava (can always get a Maile on last minute - as I suggested with Shaw, can promise an exaggerated salary for not signing elsewhere but not $3 million)
OF (8) - Kwan, Straw, Valera, Jones, Benson, Oscar, Brennan, Palacios
Inf (10) - Jose, Naylor, Rosario, Gimenez, Freeman, Arias, Rocchio, Tena, Martinez, Noel
DH (1) - Reyes

19 pitchers for now but trying to get at least Miko and Gaddis on list and possibly Misiaszek
Starter(5) - Bieber, McK, Quant, Civale, Plesac
AAA (5)- Pilk, Battenfield, Curry, Cantillo, Hankins (really AA)
Others close not on 40 - Espino, Allen, Burns, Williams

Relievers (9) - Clase, Steph, Kar, Vargas, Hentges, Sandlin, Santos, Morgan, Morris (another starter too, on severe inning limit) -- and whole list of starters just trying to get to the big league in any slot (and the list of guys who are ST invites)

The question is what can they get with a Gaddis, Tena, Brennan, Miller type trade to clear 3-4 more spaces?