Why would you just present failure rates in Cleveland? It's not like this front office was the same that drafted every other one. I think MLB as a whole would be more valuable data.
I also think the data is less useful than it could be when it isn't presented next to the data for pitchers who were drafted out of college.
There is plenty of evidence that HS pitchers drafted in the first round are the worst in terms of success rates...by a large margin.
Two articles...one by Tom Verducci, one by Keith Law...are easily available using your search engine.
Just two quick sets of numbers from Keith Law, covering 28 yrs of first round choices...
First round picks that accumulated 10 WAR in their careers:
HS pitchers...........16%
College pitchers....25%
HS batters.............26%
College batters......36%
Even more elite, the 'sure things'...top ten picks:
HS pitchers...........21%
College pitchers...32%
HS batters.............39%
College batters.....50%
The failure rate of a HS pitcher drafted in the top ten is a whopping 70%....and it plummets after that.
Why do GMs continue to draft HS pitchers in the upper rounds when the established odds against them are so high?
There are psychological terms for it, but basically they convince themselves that their guy is the exception that makes the rule.
In that way they are like us fans, even though they have far more data in hand than fans can possibly have.
All the data over decades suggest strongly that as a general rule, prospects seldom become productive long term MLB players...and that the odds against a HS pitcher are by far the longest of long shots. But most GMs and almost all fans think that they know better.
The odds of a HS pitcher taken in the first round becoming a productive MLB pitcher (10 career WAR) are one in six. Thats for a career, but our concern is strictly in his years of control...and those odds are considerably longer.
Jaret Wright is considered a success for us by many fans in Cleveland. Over 100 starts in his years of control with us he was worth about 5 fWAR.
Many fans would love to...and advocate....to trade Plesac and/or Civale.
With three years of control left, Plesac has been worth 4.3 fWAR in 73 starts. With three years of control left, Civale has been worth 3.9 fWAR in 55 starts.
The historical odds that Espino will put up 10 fWAR in his career are one in six. But nobody would trade him for a player projected to put up 9/10 fWAR over the next three/four years.