The 2020 Cleveland Indians

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Every word. And Bieber, as impressively as he's pitched, still has no impact whatsover in 80% of the games. Also, we're talking about nine starts, not a full season of work. Give me a shortstop who plays every day and hits .351 with a .390 OBP.

The pitcher on the mound has, by far, the largest impact on the game every time he throws a pitch.

A position player only has impact in 1 out of every 9 AB's, and then occasionally when a ball is put into play at that player.

Starting pitchers have a larger opportunity to impact winning than position players.

 

[CATS44]

With a third of the season left to go...

Biebot is a big fav for the CY.

MVP is too close to call.

There is a human element to the voting, and that is impossible to weigh.

Will voters give strong consideration to a pitcher winning the MVP? History says that is unlikely.

Will two contenders playing for the same team...Rendon snd Trout... split the vote? I dunno.

Will there be Trout fatigue? Will voters look for a reason to vote for or against him, simply because he is always on the list? I dunno that, either.

How much prejudice will there be against a player on a non contender? Dunno, times three.

And the question thats been around seemingly forever. How does each voter define most valuable? Is the best player in the league always the most valuable? If so, does a voter merely choose the player with highest WAR of the voters choosing?

Since 2015 there have been ten MVPs. Only twice has the award gone to a player that did not have the highest fWAR.

Donaldson over Trout.
Altuve over Judge.

 

[BimboColesHair]

In a shortened season where you have to avoid a cold spell any chance you can get to make the playoffs, it’s crazy that people are downplaying 9 games.

Indians go 0-9 instead of 9-0 like they have in games Bieber starts and they’re out of the playoffs. But hey, no value in not playing every day, can’t effect long term standings when you just effect 9 games.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Every word. And Bieber, as impressively as he's pitched, still has no impact whatsover in 80% of the games.

But the pitcher is going to have much more of an impact in the games he pitches. Even a very good hitter may have no better than replacement value in 60-70% of games.

Maybe another way to compare impact would be to look at the total number of batters faced by the pitcher over the course of a season versus the total number of at bats by the batter over the season.

 

[Urban]

Anderson plays a key defensive position every day for a first place team that wasn't supposed to be in contention, I would give Anderson the edge.

Give me a shortstop who plays every day and hits .351 with a .390 OBP.

Why are you giving credit to Anderson for playing a 'key defensive position' when he's arguably the worst starting defensive SS in baseball?

 

[LL3]

Why are you giving credit to Anderson for playing a 'key defensive position' when he's arguably the worst starting defensive SS in baseball?

He is certainly among the weaker fielders at the position. Small sample for this season,of course, but he does not seem significantly improved form 2019, where he was really poor. My eye test lines up with Fangraghs to some degree -- https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tim-anderson/15172/stats#fielding

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Every word. And Bieber, as impressively as he's pitched, still has no impact whatsover in 80% of the games. Also, we're talking about nine starts, not a full season of work. Give me a shortstop who plays every day and hits .351 with a .390 OBP.

Anderson has 141 plate appearances this season. Bieber has faced 219 batters. So in terms of their impact on overall offense, Bieber is involved in 50% more plate appearances than is Anderson.

 

[CATS44]

I had never thought of the batters faced argument before, and it makes a lot of sense.

Last season Biebs faced 859 batters. In contrast, the most plate appearances by a Tribesman last year was 686 by Santana.

In terms of number of impact possibilities a regular member of a rotation has more than the most active batter.

HOWEVER..

The counter to that is that a position player also has the chance to impact a game defensively every day that he plays, so a somewhat more accurate measurement would be plate appearances PLUS chances in the field...and that swings to the position players advantage.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I had never thought of the batters faced argument before, and it makes a lot of sense.

Last season Biebs faced 859 batters. In contrast, the most plate appearances by a Tribesman last year was 686 by Santana.

In terms of number of impact possibilities a regular member of a rotation has more than the most active batter.

HOWEVER..

The counter to that is that a position player also has the chance to impact a game defensively every day that he plays, so a somewhat more accurate measurement would be plate appearances PLUS chances in the field...and that swings to the position players advantage.

Well, then you'd also have to look at the player's outcomes against expected outcomes.

For a pitcher, the expected outcome is an out. So when you get an out, that's not as impactful as a position player getting a hit.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

The counter to that is that a position player also has the chance to impact a game defensively every day that he plays, so a somewhat more accurate measurement would be plate appearances PLUS chances in the field...and that swings to the position players advantage.

Anderson has 134 putouts + assists + errors so he was involved in 56 more plays than Bieber had batters faced. But a lot of those plays by Anderson were routine pop-ups, catching a toss to force a runner at second, or easy two-hoppers. In the case of a pitcher, however, every batter is a one-on-one battle.

Obviously a starting pitcher has a much greater affect on the games he pitches but the position player has 4-5 times as many games to contribute in. Historically the voters favor the position player except in rare instances where a starting pitcher has an amazingly dominant season (and maybe there was no position player with a clear advantage over all the others).

Anderson's BABIP is an incredible .411 this year, 60 points higher than his career average and 110 points above the major league average. But last year it was .399 and his rookie year it was .375 so it's not like he hasn't done this before, or at least come close. His hard hit percentage this year is an ungodly 49.0%. Who hits the ball hard half the time? Anyway, that helps explain the .411 BABIP.

I don't think Anderson will be a serious contender for MVP because as someone said they tend to go for the HR and RBI guys. And Anderson is not a good defensive shortstop. He only has 15 RBI's since he's hitting leadoff and hasn't been that good at hitting with RISP. If he had Lindor's defensive abilities he would be a legit MVP candidate IMO.

As for Bieber I don't know if a pitcher can win as long as somebody like Abreu is driving in a run per game, which would be like having a 160 RBI season. I also think that everyone picking the White Sox to finish third this year helps him. I think voters like guys who elevate their teams to win more than expected as opposed to guys who are having great years for disappointing teams.

 

[LL3]

Well, Tim Anderson has only made 28 plays in the field this year according to Fangraphs, so Bieber still has a big edge, 219-169.

Anderson's BABIP is an incredible .411 this year, 60 points higher than his career average and 110 points above the major league average. But last year it was .399 and his rookie year it was .375 so it's not like he hasn't done this before, or at least come close. His hard hit percentage this year is an ungodly 49.0%. Who hits the ball hard half the time? Anyway, that helps explain the .411 BABIP.

I don't think Anderson will be a serious contender for MVP because as someone said they tend to go for the HR and RBI guys. And Anderson is not a good defensive shortstop. He only has 15 RBI's since he's hitting leadoff and hasn't been that good at hitting with RISP. If he had Lindor's defensive abilities he would be a legit MVP candidate IMO.

As for Bieber I don't know if a pitcher can win as long as somebody like Abreu is driving in a run per game, which would be like having a 160 RBI season. I also think that everyone picking the White Sox to finish third this year helps him. I think voters like guys who elevate their teams to win more than expected as opposed to guys who are having great years for disappointing teams.

Strangely (Hey. it is 2020!), the White Sox could indeed finish 3rd and still have had a very impressive season (perhaps still within 3-4 games of first)...might even win it all.

 

[Lee]

Jose Abreu is hitting .315 and leads the AL with 40 RBI's for the surging Chicago White Sox. They're in first place and leading the league in runs. Trout is a great defensive player and has almost identical numbers as Abreu but the Angels are buried in 4th place with no chance at the playoffs and MVP's usually don't come from teams that are well below .500.

I think there should be some consideration for Tim Anderson who is hitting .351/.985 while playing shortstop for the White Sox. He's hitting .513/1.748 against left-handed pitching!

The Indians are 9-0 with Bieber pitching and he should get 3-4 more starts depending on whether they start him in the season finale against the Pirates or hold him back for the first game of the playoffs. If they end up going 12-0 in his starts that would certainly put him in the conversation especially if he leads the league in wins, K's, and ERA.

We are actually 8-1 in his starts, last start he went 6 innings with zero runs, but KC dropped 2 on us after Bieber left the game for the 2-1 victory.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Well, then you'd also have to look at the player's outcomes against expected outcomes.

For a pitcher, the expected outcome is an out. So when you get an out, that's not as impactful as a position player getting a hit.

Yes...but the pitcher is generally going to get a higher percentage of outs than the hitter gets hits.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Yes...but the pitcher is generally going to get a higher percentage of outs than the hitter gets hits.

Yeah, so they get weighted less. But, they happen more frequently.. so, does that weight to frequency equal out, or do the scales still tip one way or the other?

And, what do you know--once you start to take into account everything we've discussed here, you get something pretty close to OPS+ and ERA+

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Yeah, so they get weighted less. But, they happen more frequently.. so, does that weight to frequency equal out, or do the scales still tip one way or the other?

And, what do you know--once you start to take into account everything we've discussed here, you get something pretty close to OPS+ and ERA+

I don't disagree. I was just making the point that in terms of the impact of pitchers v. position players, comparing batters faced and plate appearances is a better starting point than games played.

Fielding generally isn't the basis on which MVP voting turns, so I think that's less of an issue than the pitcher/hitter matchup.