Zack Meisel in The Athletic had some interesting observations. I pasted a few....
How is this team 21-17?
Name one player who has exceeded expectations thus far.
Shaw. No doubt. The early minutes of his Cleveland sequel have impressed more than his first tenure.
James Karinchak. Sure. Though, Karinchak pitching like he’s from planet Cerberus and was dispatched on a mission to Earth to ravage the souls of major-league hitters isn’t totally out of character.
José Ramírez. Eh. He owns a .925 OPS and is an extra-base-hit machine, but that’s not overly surprising....
There just isn’t anyone whose outstanding performance seems wholly unsustainable. And that makes it difficult to comprehend how this team has a winning record in the first place. The individual parts — plenty of players are falling short of expectations — don’t add up to a team that’s on pace to win 90 games.
So, will the individual parts improve (or be replaced by more capable players) or will this thing come crashing down like a house of cards?
Four straight losses - it looks like it might be the house of cards. But Zack continues...
How long is this first-base experiment going to last?
The most obvious move would be to replace Yu Chang with Miller. Chang has logged a grand total of one plate appearance in the past 10 days. It’s a waste of a roster spot at the moment, especially considering Chang’s .137/.185/.176 slash line. Even if the club still believes in his big-league ability, it isn’t going to see evidence of that by playing him sparingly and at first base.
Jake Bauers’ slash line sits at .191/.276/.279. Compared with Chang, he’s hitting like Eddie Murray. Compared with about anybody else, he’s hitting like Eddie Murphy.
Bauers and Chang have had the platoon advantage in 108 of 131 plate appearances, but in those 108 trips to the batter’s box, they have combined for a .155/.241/.227 slash line.
Cleveland’s first basemen own a 32 wRC+ (100 is league-average run creation). That would be the worst output for a team’s first basemen — ever. The 1920 Philadelphia Athletics, thanks to a rough year from Ivy Griffin, produced a 43 wRC+ at the position.
Bauers’ metrics are a bit more promising than Chang’s, but the team can’t survive this level of ineptitude at that position. There are a handful of ways to shake things up, since first base is Josh Naylor’s natural position. Miller, Bobby Bradley or Daniel Johnson could all factor into the equation. Nolan Jones has played some first base as well, but he’s sporting a .344 OPS with 20 strikeouts in 36 at-bats at Triple A.
Worst production from the first base position not just this year, but for ALL TIME. You have to go back 101 years just to find a team that was close - well, kind of.
Ramírez, Reyes and Jordan Luplow are the Indians’ only regulars with an OPS+ better than league average. Those three and Naylor are the only regulars with an OPS+ better than 20 percent below league average.
The two veterans signed in the offseason to add some lineup stability have yet to produce at the plate.
Eddie Rosario: .206/.266/.328 slash line
Cesar Hernandez: .218/.303/.340 slash line
The two catchers — and, yes, defense comes first at that position — have yet to produce at the plate.
Roberto Pérez: .131/.274/.295 slash line before he underwent finger surgery (He did say the injury affected him at the plate.)
Austin Hedges: .137/.185/.176 slash line
The two newcomers acquired for Francisco Lindor have yet to produce at the plate.
Amed Rosario: .211/.271/.330 slash line
Andrés Giménez: .179/.226/.308 slash line
And then there's our #4 starter....
McKenzie’s metrics are unsightly: When hitters make contact against him, they’re destroying the baseball. He ranks near the bottom of the league in opponent exit velocity, hard-hit rate and, obviously, walk rate. However, he ranks in the 90th percentile in whiff rate. His curveball and slider, in particular, have prompted a ton of fruitless swings.
“I don’t think in Triston’s case that it’s a confidence issue,” pitching coach Carl Willis said, “but again, willingness to attack the zone, particularly when you’re behind in the count. His curveball is obviously a major-league-caliber curveball. His fastball, he can work top of the zone well, and working on getting the ball down and away, which he’s improving. I just think it’s really staying in attack mode and challenging guys and not being fearful of contact. And I’m not saying he is, but it’s tough if (he’s being) careful.”
Wait a minute, Carl. It's not a "confidence issue" but he's not staying in "attack mode" and is "fearful of contact"? Sure sounds like a big confidence issue to me.
With McKenzie it's either swing-and-miss or they crush the ball. He has to keep that fastball at the top or above the zone or down and away.
Plesac, OTOH, is on a roll, which I doubt he can sustain.
Plesac’s revival has helped offset some of the rotation’s inconsistencies. He has limited batters to a .131/.202/.212 slash line in his past four starts, with only 13 hits allowed in 29 1/3 innings....
“He has this gift, and I don’t know that it can be explained,” Willis said. “So many times, hitters are swinging at pitches and they don’t really know what they are. They don’t really know what they’re swinging at. Sometimes his slider may profile almost like a changeup. Other times it’s obviously like a slider. His changeup is phenomenal as we all know. You just see a lot of poor contact with Zach. I feel like his spin direction, his axis, how the seams work — hitters take a lot of swings at pitches that they’re not really sure: Is it a slider? Is it a fastball? Is it a changeup? And you just see that poor contact.”
The good news is that none of the hitters are exceeding expectations and will revert to the norm. Most of them are way under and if anything will go the other way. And we're 18-2 when scoring four runs or more. It also appears the first base "experiment" will be ending soon - it has to.
