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That's such an incredibly weak take. You just went back and looked up two guys who were top 10 picks as small forwards who were disappointments, in an effort to support your argument. For every guy you list, I can find a guy who did make it...Tracy McGrady, Zach LaVine, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Giannis, Patrick Williams & Isaac Okoro (both look like they'll make it)...the list goes on.
Every year there are guys who hit and there are guys that miss. That's the draft. The risk has become magnified as prospects have gotten younger & younger. Kuminga re-classified from the class of 2021 to 2020, so he's a year younger than many of these guys.
If you want to play it safe, then pick a guy like Chris Duarte, COrey Kispert, or Davion Mitchell every year and you never take a big chance. That's what Wayne Embry used to do when he was Cavs GM. He hated taking underclassmen and the risk that came along with it.
You're either a GM who plays it safe, takes the guy with a lower ceiling, or you accept the risk and take a guy with a higher ceiling, hoping you can develop him. That's what the Warriors have done with Kuminga. Only time will tell if he hits or not, but you can't write him off because Josh Jackson & Stanley Johnson didn't make it. That's ridiculous...
I generally agree with you as long as the risk is on the side of "will he develop those skills?" rather than intangibles such as motor/desire/attitude, etc.. I think taking risks on head cases almost never pays off for the team that drafts the guy.