I know this probably really goes against a lot of consensus but this is what I would believe to be true, if you are trying to project outcomes from profiles. Post combine, I'd probably land here if someone made me finally rank all these guys.
Chet, he's just the #1 player. The stuff about Paolo / Smith going #1 would be wild to me. Chet has been the #1 guy in his class pretty much his whole life and his performance at every level has done nothing to change that. Very much overthinking if Orlando doesn't take him.
Tier 2.......I honestly think Tier 2 is big. I see this as very small everywhere else, but I'd buy an argument for taking any of these players #2. Does that match the traditional group think......no it does not but all have really redeeming analytical qualities.......and guys like Eason / Williams / Ivey add in special physical qualities as well that are tough to ignore. I also think Griffin is firmly in this conversation without a knee red flag.
Tier 3......I haven't talked about him much but Liddell is probably the very quiet riser of this middle pocket. He has two years of plus production and he tested out far better than expected. I think I have talked about both Moore and Minott.......guys I think are really undervalued relative to an NBA projection.
Rocks.......I am well below consensus on Ochai, Branham, Davis. All 3 need to buck a pretty strong modeling trend (especially for considered lottery picks).
At #39......I would hope 2-3 guys from T4 would be there. My personal favorite being Roddy......although he may have worked out too well from what I have seen. #2 on my wish list would be someone like Vince Williams Jr. (I say those two names expecting guys like Ochai, Davis, etc. will be gone from that tier). Just to curb anyone veering off there.