2020 Starting Pitching Discussion

LL3 said:

I am drawing a blank...how many 6th starters have we traded? Guys like Pestano had good years as a reliever, and Westbrook was a decent/goodl starter (may have been openning day starter in 2010?!?). The Indians have been great at searching the minors of other clubs for potential gems, and I trust they will continue to do the same.

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I was referring not so much to sixth starters but players that still had some value but were nearing either the end of their careers or the end of contracts that we couldn't afford to keep. Casey Blake for Carlos Santana comes to mind. Blake still had a couple of decent years left and we sold high at age 34. It was one of the best trades this franchise ever made, IMO.

We traded Westbrook at age 32 when he still had some value, like Blake, but was getting long in the tooth. He went 36-32 with a 4.27 ERA for the Cardinals over the next four years. We got Corey Kluber.

Both the Dodgers and Cardinals were contenders who were willing to part with Santana and Kluber for good veteran players who were past their prime but still had some value left. The Pestano for Clevinger deal was similar except we didn't know that Pestano was already done, and neither did the Angels.

Now some may say that those kind of deals will never happen again and trying to replicate them is a "fool's errand". Well, we just traded Kluber for Clase so let's see if we end up the fool on that one. As a Kluber fan I hope he can finish his career more like Westbrook than Pestano.

Plutko is different in that he's still only 28 and has not had anything close to the success Westbrook, Pestano, or Blake had in the majors. But starting pitching is tough to find and Plutko would probably be the Braves' #3 starter the rest of this season. Their rotation now is Fried, Newcomb, Toussant, Wright, and nobody, according to ESPN. Toussaint has a career ERA of 5.24. Wright's career line is 0-4, 7.67. They're both 24. And they have no 5th starter announced.

Are they desparate? Are they looking around for a small market team that has excess starting pitching and a history of trading major league talent for prospects with great success? I don't know, but if I'm the Indians I'm at least going to talk to them rather than assume they won't give anything of value for a legitimate major league starting pitcher.

Kluber for Clase isn't anywhere close to the type of deal we're talking about here.

We're talking about trading for unheralded low-level minor leaguers because Plutko isn't valuable enough to net anything else in a trade. So, again I'll say, there's no reason to trade Plutko because he's more valuable to us as a roster member than as a trade-chip.

No one is going to give up anything of value for a career 5.62 FIP starter with no remaining options

Seems awfully similar to the plan of "trade Eli Morgan just to make a trade"

Wham with the Right Hand said:

I was referring not so much to sixth starters but players that still had some value but were nearing either the end of their careers or the end of contracts that we couldn't afford to keep. Casey Blake for Carlos Santana comes to mind. Blake still had a couple of decent years left and we sold high at age 34. It was one of the best trades this franchise ever made, IMO.

We traded Westbrook at age 32 when he still had some value, like Blake, but was getting long in the tooth. He went 36-32 with a 4.27 ERA for the Cardinals over the next four years. We got Corey Kluber.

Both the Dodgers and Cardinals were contenders who were willing to part with Santana and Kluber for good veteran players who were past their prime but still had some value left. The Pestano for Clevinger deal was similar except we didn't know that Pestano was already done, and neither did the Angels.

Now some may say that those kind of deals will never happen again and trying to replicate them is a "fool's errand". Well, we just traded Kluber for Clase so let's see if we end up the fool on that one. As a Kluber fan I hope he can finish his career more like Westbrook than Pestano.

Plutko is different in that he's still only 28 and has not had anything close to the success Westbrook, Pestano, or Blake had in the majors. But starting pitching is tough to find and Plutko would probably be the Braves' #3 starter the rest of this season. Their rotation now is Fried, Newcomb, Toussant, Wright, and nobody, according to ESPN. Toussaint has a career ERA of 5.24. Wright's career line is 0-4, 7.67. They're both 24. And they have no 5th starter announced.

Are they desparate? Are they looking around for a small market team that has excess starting pitching and a history of trading major league talent for prospects with great success? I don't know, but if I'm the Indians I'm at least going to talk to them rather than assume they won't give anything of value for a legitimate major league starting pitcher.

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Wishful thinking but doesn’t hurt to ask.

I think most al

Wham with the Right Hand said:

I was referring not so much to sixth starters but players that still had some value but were nearing either the end of their careers or the end of contracts that we couldn't afford to keep. Casey Blake for Carlos Santana comes to mind. Blake still had a couple of decent years left and we sold high at age 34. It was one of the best trades this franchise ever made, IMO.

We traded Westbrook at age 32 when he still had some value, like Blake, but was getting long in the tooth. He went 36-32 with a 4.27 ERA for the Cardinals over the next four years. We got Corey Kluber.

Both the Dodgers and Cardinals were contenders who were willing to part with Santana and Kluber for good veteran players who were past their prime but still had some value left. The Pestano for Clevinger deal was similar except we didn't know that Pestano was already done, and neither did the Angels.

Now some may say that those kind of deals will never happen again and trying to replicate them is a "fool's errand". Well, we just traded Kluber for Clase so let's see if we end up the fool on that one. As a Kluber fan I hope he can finish his career more like Westbrook than Pestano.

Plutko is different in that he's still only 28 and has not had anything close to the success Westbrook, Pestano, or Blake had in the majors. But starting pitching is tough to find and Plutko would probably be the Braves' #3 starter the rest of this season. Their rotation now is Fried, Newcomb, Toussant, Wright, and nobody, according to ESPN. Toussaint has a career ERA of 5.24. Wright's career line is 0-4, 7.67. They're both 24. And they have no 5th starter announced.

Are they desparate? Are they looking around for a small market team that has excess starting pitching and a history of trading major league talent for prospects with great success? I don't know, but if I'm the Indians I'm at least going to talk to them rather than assume they won't give anything of value for a legitimate major league starting pitcher.

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l believe those trades were mostly completed in a mode where we were not really competitive in that moment. We are trying to win, so it’s awfully tough to drop major league pitching depth...like we saw last year, pitching can evaporate in a heartbeat. Plutko has value to us right now.
I do not know where you came down on the Kluber trade, but I was good with that deal because i had belief that the organization had made an assessment that Corey was at the tail end of good health, and he was not worth keeping at his price tag. FWIW, I was a huge Kluber fan, but felt his time had passed.

Plutko is one of the worst SPs in baseball by almost any measurement you care to use...and he is out of options.

His only value is as a AAAA pitcher who can make a few emergency starts while younger prospects are preparing for the Bigs...except that now he must remain on the roster. The lack of minor league games this season means that he has more value to us in this irregular situation than he would to another team.

In a normal season, when TMac, Moss, JRod, and Allen were getting regular turns in the Columbus rotation, he might not even be in the org.

CATS44 said:

Plutko is one of the worst SPs in baseball by almost any measurement you care to use...and he is out of options.

His only value is as a AAAA pitcher who can make a few emergency starts while younger prospects are preparing for the Bigs...except that now he must remain on the roster. The lack of minor league games this season means that he has more value to us in this irregular situation than he would to another team.

In a normal season, when TMac, Moss, JRod, and Allen were getting regular turns in the Columbus rotation, he might not even be in the org.

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Or, he could have learned to better command his off-speed pitches and becomes a breakout candidate.

The line between him as a serviceable starter and burning out of the organization is pretty thin, I'm enjoying the fact that we're getting something of a reprieve from having to see him catch on and succeed elsewhere.

Well, hopefully.

LL3 said:

I think most al

l believe those trades were mostly completed in a mode where we were not really competitive in that moment. We are trying to win, so it’s awfully tough to drop major league pitching depth...like we saw last year, pitching can evaporate in a heartbeat. Plutko has value to us right now.
I do not know where you came down on the Kluber trade, but I was good with that deal because i had belief that the organization had made an assessment that Corey was at the tail end of good health, and he was not worth keeping at his price tag. FWIW, I was a huge Kluber fan, but felt his time had passed.

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That is correct, and that's why I said a potential Plutko trade is "different". He's not a Westbrook or Kluber, but the similarity is that I believe he is nearing the end of his useful life with this organization, not from age or wear and tear, but because he has been passed up by younger, better starters.

Trading him would be a risk, I agree. Anytime you trade your sixth starter you're taking a risk. But there are only 47 games left in the season and they don't have a job for him right now. All five starters are pitching great. I don't see Plutko winning a starting job next year. They haven't even been using him out of the bullpen because they don't need him there, either. He hasn't pitched in eight games and there is no reason to expect him to pitch any time soon.

How can anyone say he's more valuable to us than to a contending team that would put him right into their starting rotation and pitch him every fifth day?

OK, for this to work the Braves would have to be willing to overpay. Maybe they are. Their next two starters are 24-year-old with ERA's over 8.00 and they still don't have a starter listed for Saturday.

I agree Plutko is a below average starter. But he has improved since last year. From The Athletic:

"Adam Plutko

Curveball

Over the winter, Plutko committed to crafting the proper curveball to fit his revamped approach: fastballs high in the zone and off-speed pitches at the bottom of the zone. It sounds simple, but Plutko essentially smacked a hornet’s nest like a piñata whenever he tossed anything near the middle of the plate, even when resting on one of the corners. He served up 16 of his 22 home runs on mid-level pitches and, unsurprisingly, hitters’ exit velocities soared in that same region.
Plutko has exhibited an elite spin rate on his curveball, but he relied on it only 10.6 percent of the time last year because the spin wasn’t causing the pitch to plummet toward the ground. It was just spinning sideways, refusing to offer him the sharp break that would complement a high fastball.

He said the plan “is rock solid” and that he feels “really confident in what I’m doing.”

“The proof’s in the pudding,” he said. “The fact that the curveball is working the way I want it to, the fact that the high heater last year got proven to be effective for me, I’m going in there with more confidence than I’ve ever had.


In his one start this year Plutko held the White Sox to two runs in six innings. The White Sox lead baseball in team batting average at .279; 16 points ahead of the next closest team, and that's having played three games against the Tribe. Yes, it's only one start, but he looks better than last year.

Maybe the Braves have no interest. Fine. But if they do, I would try to get one of their blocked prospects for a pitcher we haven't been able to find a single inning for in the last eight games and there's no indication he'll throw another pitch the rest of the season. Basically we're waiting for a starter to get hurt or knocked out early. And how do we know they don't have somebody at Eastlake who is throwing just as well as Plutko?

We got Travis Hafner as a minor leaguer because the Rangers were set at first base. They had a guy named Rafael Palmiero who had a 4.2 WAR that year. They liked Hafner but decided they liked Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese more. I'm a huge fan of blocked prospects. In a way Adam Plutko is a blocked prospect.

AZ_ said:

Or, he could have learned to better command his off-speed pitches and becomes a breakout candidate.

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Maybe not a breakout candidate but if he really improved his curveball at the column in the Athletic states he may be a decent #4 starter which we don't need but a lot of teams could use.

Wham with the Right Hand said:

I was referring not so much to sixth starters but players that still had some value but were nearing either the end of their careers or the end of contracts that we couldn't afford to keep. Casey Blake for Carlos Santana comes to mind. Blake still had a couple of decent years left and we sold high at age 34. It was one of the best trades this franchise ever made, IMO.

We traded Westbrook at age 32 when he still had some value, like Blake, but was getting long in the tooth. He went 36-32 with a 4.27 ERA for the Cardinals over the next four years. We got Corey Kluber.

Both the Dodgers and Cardinals were contenders who were willing to part with Santana and Kluber for good veteran players who were past their prime but still had some value left. The Pestano for Clevinger deal was similar except we didn't know that Pestano was already done, and neither did the Angels.

Now some may say that those kind of deals will never happen again and trying to replicate them is a "fool's errand". Well, we just traded Kluber for Clase so let's see if we end up the fool on that one. As a Kluber fan I hope he can finish his career more like Westbrook than Pestano.

Plutko is different in that he's still only 28 and has not had anything close to the success Westbrook, Pestano, or Blake had in the majors. But starting pitching is tough to find and Plutko would probably be the Braves' #3 starter the rest of this season. Their rotation now is Fried, Newcomb, Toussant, Wright, and nobody, according to ESPN. Toussaint has a career ERA of 5.24. Wright's career line is 0-4, 7.67. They're both 24. And they have no 5th starter announced.

Are they desparate? Are they looking around for a small market team that has excess starting pitching and a history of trading major league talent for prospects with great success? I don't know, but if I'm the Indians I'm at least going to talk to them rather than assume they won't give anything of value for a legitimate major league starting pitcher.

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A few knowns...

# 1 and most assuredly, the Braves ARE desperately looking for answers in their starting rotation.. The answer may be from someplace else, however, like most teams approaching the trading deadline, they'd rather determine if an internal candidate can fill the need. With the Braves..they have a BUNCH of potential fillers. The caveat being: young guys are almost always inconsistent as hell.. Therein lies the reason an Adam Plutko may be attractive for the Braves.. but not for any top 5 prospect..

2. Only when dealing a bona fide all star will most teams include a top five prospect in a deal.. For the Braves that excludes a couple of SP's that are ready or getting their feet wet in the major leagues.. Almost always, these kinds of deals take place in the off season..

Adam Plutko may warrant a return for a minor leaguer: a.) An SP/RP that may be without options.. b.) A position player that may be blocked by an existing contracted ML'er.. The latter is more likely.. The Braves have a jammed up situation at Catcher.. a position the Indians are in need of.. Shea Langeliers (their future backstop), William Contreras, and Alex Jackson are all backstops that could help the Braves as "old timers' D'Arnaud and Flowers wither in the Georgia heat.. The Braves also have a couple four OF'ers that may be interesting.

In short.. the Indians have an SP that could help the Braves.. The Braves have a C that could help the Indians.. Adding a minor league player to either or both sides could eventuate in a deal.. only three weeks until the trade deadline, too..

We'll see..

Looking at some "comparable" starting pitching trades at last year's deadline to put the potential return in perspective.

Astros acquire RHP Aaron Sanchez, RHP Joe Biagini and OF Cal Stevenson from Blue Jays for OF Derek Fisher

• Fisher was a 26 year old AAAA caliber OF with a huge strikeout problem. No where near either teams's Top 30 prospects

Diamondbacks acquire RHP Mike Leake and cash considerations from Mariners for infielder Jose Caballero

• Leake's 2019 season is pretty comparable. Good control, low strikeouts, lots of homers. Bit harder to compare as Leake had a considerable contract (too lazy to look up who is paying what). Caballero is a 23 year old IF who was playing in High A. Not in either team's Top 30

Phillies acquire LHP Jason Vargas and cash from Mets for C Austin Bossart

• Bossart a 26 year old AA catcher at the time. Not in either team's Top 30

Brewers acquire RHP Jordan Lyles from Pirates for RHP Cody Ponce

• Ponce was a 25 year old reliever pitching at AA at the time. Not in either team's Top 30

Athletics acquire RHP Homer Bailey from Royals for SS Kevin Merrell

• Merrell was a 2017 CBA pick by Oakland and was ranked their #17 prospect on MLB Pipeline at the time; is not currently in Royals Top 30

Red Sox acquire RHP Andrew Cashner from Orioles for OF Elio Prado and SS Noelberth Romero

• Prado and Romero were 2 17 year olds playing in the Dominican Summer League. Neither Top 30 for either team.

Under normal circumstances we would have a 26 man roster with no taxi squad that upped the number to 33. There would be a five man rotation in Columbus with a full complement of young, highly thought of relievers.

There would be no room for a player who was not statring, did not profile as a reliever, and could not swing a bat or field a position.

Look at a list of SPs from last year who threw at least 100 IP. Pick any measurement you think is significant, and, excepting for walk rate, Pluto ranked near or at the very bottom of the list.

He is a soft tossing right with one of the worst GB rates in baseball that doesn't strike out many batters. He is prone to giving up home runs.

He had a good start against Chicago, but his underlying numbers were no better than his career averages. In spite of the usual preseason hype of a pitchers 'new' arsenal, there is zero indication that he is anything more than he ever was.

If this was a normal season, Pluto wouldn't be the #6 on this staff. He would be behind at least one, and maybe two, in the pecking order.

Now, since the Braves have been mentioned, look at what they do have behind Max Fried.

Newcombe is a better pitcher by far than Plutko.

Toussant and Wilson have as good to much better underlying numbers and a ton more upside.

And if they want to plug a short term hole they have Tomlin, who in his entire career has had only one season in which his FIP was worse than Plutkos career number.

Atlanta isn't gonna give up much more than a bag of balls to rent a guy who isn't much more than what they already have, and probably a lot less.

There was a lot of debate over the off season about what the back of our rotation should look like, and a lot of folks insisted that Plutko should pitch while either Civale or Plesac should be sent down for more seasoning. In fact, most of the debate was Civale vs Plesac, Plutko being the assumed place holder. Is their anybody who thinks that now?

Even in our own group estimation, Plutko has dropped. Now, ask yourself this. Suppose we were in Atlantas place....and Atlanta had Plutko as a spare part.

Clevinger was out. Civale and Plesac struggled out of the gate. Cookie was in the pen to start the year. But we were still in a good position. We had Moss and Allen as our options, along with Cookie.

Would we string along with Civale and Plesac while giving the other two kids...or Cookie...a look? Or would we cast an envious eye at Plutko, rotting on the bench in Atlanta with no options left?

And if we cast that envious eye, how much would you be willing to give up?

Chang?
Bradley?
One of our young, highly thought of MIFs?
Nelson or one of our highly thought of young pitching prospects?

Atlanta looks at things the same way.

Urban said:

Looking at some "comparable" starting pitching trades at last year's deadline to put the potential return in perspective.

Astros acquire RHP Aaron Sanchez, RHP Joe Biagini and OF Cal Stevenson from Blue Jays for OF Derek Fisher

• Fisher was a 26 year old AAAA caliber OF with a huge strikeout problem. No where near either teams's Top 30 prospects

Diamondbacks acquire RHP Mike Leake and cash considerations from Mariners for infielder Jose Caballero

• Leake's 2019 season is pretty comparable. Good control, low strikeouts, lots of homers. Bit harder to compare as Leake had a considerable contract (too lazy to look up who is paying what). Caballero is a 23 year old IF who was playing in High A. Not in either team's Top 30

Phillies acquire LHP Jason Vargas and cash from Mets for C Austin Bossart

• Bossart a 26 year old AA catcher at the time. Not in either team's Top 30

Brewers acquire RHP Jordan Lyles from Pirates for RHP Cody Ponce

• Ponce was a 25 year old reliever pitching at AA at the time. Not in either team's Top 30

Athletics acquire RHP Homer Bailey from Royals for SS Kevin Merrell

• Merrell was a 2017 CBA pick by Oakland and was ranked their #17 prospect on MLB Pipeline at the time; is not currently in Royals Top 30

Red Sox acquire RHP Andrew Cashner from Orioles for OF Elio Prado and SS Noelberth Romero

• Prado and Romero were 2 17 year olds playing in the Dominican Summer League. Neither Top 30 for either team.

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That is allot of research for a bunch of meh trades for Plutko being a AAAA player with little value that I don't think anyone was arguing with any of you, lol.

Well done, lol

CATS44 said:

Under normal circumstances we would have a 26 man roster with no taxi squad that upped the number to 33. There would be a five man rotation in Columbus with a full complement of young, highly thought of relievers.

There would be no room for a player who was not statring, did not profile as a reliever, and could not swing a bat or field a position.

Look at a list of SPs from last year who threw at least 100 IP. Pick any measurement you think is significant, and, excepting for walk rate, Pluto ranked near or at the very bottom of the list.

He is a soft tossing right with one of the worst GB rates in baseball that doesn't strike out many batters. He is prone to giving up home runs.

He had a good start against Chicago, but his underlying numbers were no better than his career averages. In spite of the usual preseason hype of a pitchers 'new' arsenal, there is zero indication that he is anything more than he ever was.

If this was a normal season, Pluto wouldn't be the #6 on this staff. He would be behind at least one, and maybe two, in the pecking order.

Now, since the Braves have been mentioned, look at what they do have behind Max Fried.

Newcombe is a better pitcher by far than Plutko.

Toussant and Wilson have as good to much better underlying numbers and a ton more upside.

And if they want to plug a short term hole they have Tomlin, who in his entire career has had only one season in which his FIP was worse than Plutkos career number.

Atlanta isn't gonna give up much more than a bag of balls to rent a guy who isn't much more than what they already have, and probably a lot less.

There was a lot of debate over the off season about what the back of our rotation should look like, and a lot of folks insisted that Plutko should pitch while either Civale or Plesac should be sent down for more seasoning. In fact, most of the debate was Civale vs Plesac, Plutko being the assumed place holder. Is their anybody who thinks that now?

Even in our own group estimation, Plutko has dropped. Now, ask yourself this. Suppose we were in Atlantas place....and Atlanta had Plutko as a spare part.

Clevinger was out. Civale and Plesac struggled out of the gate. Cookie was in the pen to start the year. But we were still in a good position. We had Moss and Allen as our options, along with Cookie.

Would we string along with Civale and Plesac while giving the other two kids...or Cookie...a look? Or would we cast an envious eye at Plutko, rotting on the bench in Atlanta with no options left?

And if we cast that envious eye, how much would you be willing to give up?

Chang?
Bradley?
One of our young, highly thought of MIFs?
Nelson or one of our highly thought of young pitching prospects?

Atlanta looks at things the same way.

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So you saying you like Plutko? LMAO

So of the 6 starting pitchers, rate them in your first to worst...i am guessing Plutko is 6, lol. (more interested in the other 5 order in your opinion.

If i had to guess. Maybe give them a value on 1-100....something like Bieber might be a 95, Cleve a 91, Plutko a 30?

Maybe I am too high on Bieber, but he looks so real deal Holyfield to me, like here on out Cy Young convo (and Cleve)

Bieber
Cleve
Cookie
Civale
Plesac

Lee said:

That is allot of research for a bunch of meh trades for Plutko being a AAAA player with little value that I don't think anyone was arguing with any of you, lol.

Well done, lol

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I mean, Wham has been beating the trade Plutko trade for several posts now for seemingly no reason other than he wants to make a trade.

Plutko is a nice insurance option for our rotation in the event that someone gets hurt or sick. What exactly does an "overpay" look like for a career 5.62 FIP starter in the middle of a shortened season during a pandemic? Like what's the point in acquiring the Braves' 55th best prospect for a player who could potentially serve a purpose on our roster this season?