Just my 2 cents ... but like others, I thought they should have traded him last season. Not trading him shows that either Lindor w Covid issues & baseball finances has diminished his value too much or we are discounting the value Lindor has to the Dolans and fan appreciation (if they can swallow his salary).
Lindor Value vs Trade Return (comparing if he plays in 1 post-season now for new team vs 2 post-seasons last year)
-- Now his value is 60-70% of last trade deadline in prospect return (Lindor WAR x years left in contract = value back in prospects - give or take).
-- At next trade deadline 40-50% of his value in return (assuming post-season is more valuable than reg seasons)
The longer we hold him, the more likely it is that we will keep him for the whole year (I know breaking news). Yet, sooner or later, the value to the Dolans for Lindor in a trade will be less than Comp A pick and ability to put fans in the seats next season (summer). Normally, in July, you are 110 games into 162 games (68% way through season so -- 30-35% of contract remaining). This year, a team only had to only pay a player 15% of his salary for one more month. If Lindor didn't have max value this Aug 31 with only $25-30 million of salary left to be paid for 2 post-seasons (playoff run support), you are not going to get what we want back ever. So, I am wondering if Dolans will pull the plug on Lindor in a trade even now in offseason. If they wait until next July, you only got to pay him $6-$7 million more and barely get a decent prospect worth more than a Comp A pick and the $2 million to sign the pick. I doubt, $8-9 million really sways them too much to take the backlash from a trade.
The real question we got to ask is what is more valuable now
1) $25 million in savings for Lindor plus a less than spectacular return (over comp A pick) or
2) The Comp A pick (plus $2 million to sign) and goodwill to fans to get fans back in the seats in 2021 with both Jose and Lindor (or at least watching TV to boost ratings for next TV contract).
We have been focused on the $20-25 million as Dolans wanting to be cheap. However, if Lindor boosts TV ratings or stadium seating .... it may not be a bad investment for the Dolans (spread of 10-year TV contract). I think we may have gotten it all wrong in Dolans wanting to shed payroll. Yes, getting rid of Hand's $10 million or Santana's $18 million will help to clear the books for next owner (and hopefully show a projected profit for 2021/22) to increase the value of a sale. Yet, if the TV revenue for next contract in 2022/23 (?) decreases due to a slip in ratings (in excitement), Dolan's are just sabotaging themselves. They need to keep the fans interest up as long as possible (before TV contract is signed) and the PR value of Lindor does that. $25 million only equates to $2.5 million per year over a 10-year TV contract ... if the TV demos drop by just 10% you are looking at a much larger decrease in a potential $60 or so million per year TV contract they may get with great demos -- we had best % of fans watching at beginning of this season per population). Lindor has that appeal to draw fans in ... Hand and Santana do not. Thus, I am starting to rethink if Lindor will be traded at all!
I could have seen a trade last offseason if we had a year to develop the next Tatis type SS (for 2 years of contract remaining) with excitement level peaking right when TV contract is renewed .... but now that type of return is just a pipedream where even Boston could only get Verdugo for Bettis type return pre-Covid (not much excitement there).
