It's not even that.
Like, the soon to be AL MVP is a guy who struck out in around 30% of his minor league PAs. But who cares, what he does in the other 70%-75% of his PAs means so much more, which shouldn't surprise anyone.
Imagine looking at guys like Judge, Schwarber, Matt Chapman, Dansby Swanson, Teoscar Hernandez and any other high K rate but productive hitters and saying they have no shot because of what they do in maybe 1/4th or 1/5th of their PAs. Asinine.
I think it's somewhat poetic for this discussion that Steven Kwan and his 9.4% K rate is going to finish either 2nd or 3rd in the ROTY voting for the AL behind a kid with a 26% K rate. And the kid who most likely finishes 2nd above him causing an outcry of bitter fans is posting an 18% K rate. And the kid who most likely finishes right around or behind Kwan has a 21% K rate.
Low K rates are nice. High K rates are not nice. You can be a productive hitter as either type. For the love of God, quit obsessing over K rates.
I didn't say have no chance. I said, and always have, has LESS chance. Big difference. Huge difference.
If you want to point out the one freak (Judge) as your basis for supporting your argument that Ks and contact matter little, be my guest.
Lets look at your examples...
Julio Rodriguez entered the league with a solid foundation thru the minors...high contact, low K rate, high average.
Kyle Schwarber...high contact, low K rate, high average.
Dansby Swanson...high contact, low K rate, fairly high average.
Teoscar Hernandez....fairly high contact, low K rate, so so average.
The only one on your list, outside of Judge, that Kd a lot in the minors is Chapman.
Nice try.
Everybody is looking for the next Thome, the next Manny, the next Belle. But if you are looking at our big swingers for one, you had better look at what those guys did in the minors.
Thome...317 BA...17.6 K rate.
Manny...299 BA....19.7 K rate.
Belle......298 BA....22.9 K rate.
It seems like the concensus is that Valera is our next big thing.
Valera....248 BA...25.5 K rate
How about Jones?
Jones...278 BA....27.2 K rate.
Being able to make consistent contact in the minors DOES matter...a LOT.
Its not everything, but its by far the most important thing.
Ignore K rates at your own risk, and keep chasing good money after bad.