2022 Minor League Thread

[CATS44]

Lets look at how things stand.

Gone:

Zimmer
Chang
Bradley
Franmil

All highly thought of at one time, what do they have in common?

Power, but no contact skills. Strike out a lot. Lots of cheering of their power, which in the end meant nothing.

Now look at where our outfield prospects stood two years ago.

Jones....power, don't worry about the Ks.

Benson....power, don't worry about the Ks.

Kwan...great contact, but doesn't have any power. Doesn't fit corner OF profile.

OGonz...contact skills, doesn't walk, doesn't have enough power.

Brennan...(see Kwan)

Now, two years later, what is the pecking order?

Kwan...OGonz...Brennan. ( The guys that make contact )

With those three in the lead going into next season and Valera in AAA, where does anybody see room for Jones and Benson in the outfield?

With Naylor, who doesn't strike out, established as at least the left hand side of a platoon at first, and Arias learning to play first as possibly the RH side, where does anybody see room for Jones anywhere?

As for scouting, I'm very happy that the emphasis on scouting prospects has switched from power, size, and athleticism to contact skills...and it began about six years ago.

It's something I've been preaching since before internet forums. Charlie Manuel approves.

So does Chris Valaika...which is why he was hired.

There is a description of Tyler Freeman that I agree with...'skills over tools'.

Tools mean nothing if a kid doesn't have and/or develop the skills.

 

[BimboColesHair]

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I personally love how every prospect with a high strikeout rate who doesn't succeed validates his position, but every prospect with a low strikeout rate who fails gets ignored.

Just bring up Ernie Clement and watch the mental gymnastics begin.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I personally love how every prospect with a high strikeout rate who doesn't succeed validates his position, but every prospect with a low strikeout rate who fails gets ignored.

Just bring up Ernie Clement and watch the mental gymnastics begin.

It's not even that.

Like, the soon to be AL MVP is a guy who struck out in around 30% of his minor league PAs. But who cares, what he does in the other 70%-75% of his PAs means so much more, which shouldn't surprise anyone.

Imagine looking at guys like Judge, Schwarber, Matt Chapman, Dansby Swanson, Teoscar Hernandez and any other high K rate but productive hitters and saying they have no shot because of what they do in maybe 1/4th or 1/5th of their PAs. Asinine.

I think it's somewhat poetic for this discussion that Steven Kwan and his 9.4% K rate is going to finish either 2nd or 3rd in the ROTY voting for the AL behind a kid with a 26% K rate. And the kid who most likely finishes 2nd above him causing an outcry of bitter fans is posting an 18% K rate. And the kid who most likely finishes right around or behind Kwan has a 21% K rate.

Low K rates are nice. High K rates are not nice. You can be a productive hitter as either type. For the love of God, quit obsessing over K rates.

 

[Gson]

It's not even that.

Like, the soon to be AL MVP is a guy who struck out in around 30% of his minor league PAs. But who cares, what he does in the other 70%-75% of his PAs means so much more, which shouldn't surprise anyone.

Imagine looking at guys like Judge, Schwarber, Matt Chapman, Dansby Swanson, Teoscar Hernandez and any other high K rate but productive hitters and saying they have no shot because of what they do in maybe 1/4th or 1/5th of their PAs. Asinine.

I think it's somewhat poetic for this discussion that Steven Kwan and his 9.4% K rate is going to finish either 2nd or 3rd in the ROTY voting for the AL behind a kid with a 26% K rate. And the kid who most likely finishes 2nd above him causing an outcry of bitter fans is posting an 18% K rate. And the kid who most likely finishes right around or behind Kwan has a 21% K rate.

Low K rates are nice. High K rates are not nice. You can be a productive hitter as either type. For the love of God, quit obsessing over K rates.

of note.. potential AL ROTY guys: Julio Rodriguez/George Kirby, Adley Rutschman, Jeremy Pena, Bobby Witt Jr. & Stevie Ray Kwan.. Pretty good group of rookies.. pretty good, indeed..

 

[BimboColesHair]

of note.. potential AL ROTY guys: Julio Rodriguez/George Kirby, Adley Rutschman, Jeremy Pena, Bobby Witt Jr. & Stevie Ray Kwan.. Pretty good group of rookies.. pretty good, indeed..

NL is having just as good of a season too.

Harris, Strider, Donovan, McCarthy, Cruz, Alexis Diaz, Lodolo, Roansy Contreras.

And oh yeah, speaking of the NL rookies. ROTY award is going to go to a kid with a 24% K rate.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Just because I’m generally curious.

Someone in here give me the number of PAs you think is large enough to determine how a player performed for a season.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Just because I’m generally curious.

Someone in here give me the number of PAs you think is large enough to determine how a player performed for a season.

8.

And that's 8 across both regular season and postseason.

My reference point is Chad Ogea in 1997. Dude was a silver slugger and nobody can convince me otherwise!

 

[Criznit]

Just because I’m generally curious.

Someone in here give me the number of PAs you think is large enough to determine how a player performed for a season.

350 absolute minimum, but 400 sounds about right to me.

 

[Tondo]

K rate alone is meaningless, just as it is for pitchers.

That's why BB/K ratio is better, but still not enough to tell the whole story. Add SwStr%, ISO, BABIP, OBP, wRc+ then we're talking.

It's why Amed Rosario being top 5 in AL hits is totally meaningless too, because in the context of the stats above, he's still an average hitter. Below avg power and OBP is a bad mix. His speed pushes his profile up to average.

 

[macbdog]

Lets look at how things stand.

Gone:

Zimmer
Chang
Bradley
Franmil

All highly thought of at one time, what do they have in common?

Power, but no contact skills. Strike out a lot. Lots of cheering of their power, which in the end meant nothing.

Now look at where our outfield prospects stood two years ago.

Jones....power, don't worry about the Ks.

Benson....power, don't worry about the Ks.

Kwan...great contact, but doesn't have any power. Doesn't fit corner OF profile.

OGonz...contact skills, doesn't walk, doesn't have enough power.

Brennan...(see Kwan)

Now, two years later, what is the pecking order?

Kwan...OGonz...Brennan. ( The guys that make contact )

With those three in the lead going into next season and Valera in AAA, where does anybody see room for Jones and Benson in the outfield?

With Naylor, who doesn't strike out, established as at least the left hand side of a platoon at first, and Arias learning to play first as possibly the RH side, where does anybody see room for Jones anywhere?

As for scouting, I'm very happy that the emphasis on scouting prospects has switched from power, size, and athleticism to contact skills...and it began about six years ago.

It's something I've been preaching since before internet forums. Charlie Manuel approves.

So does Chris Valaika...which is why he was hired.

There is a description of Tyler Freeman that I agree with...'skills over tools'.

Tools mean nothing if a kid doesn't have and/or develop the skills.

Don't forget to include Valera, who has a career .248 BA from rookie ball to now. Yes, he has a bigleague ready batflip, but I don't see why the same crowd that throws Oscar on the trash heap is so open with praise for a guy who can't break .250 against minor league pitching.

 

[macbdog]

I personally love how every prospect with a high strikeout rate who doesn't succeed validates his position, but every prospect with a low strikeout rate who fails gets ignored.

Just bring up Ernie Clement and watch the mental gymnastics begin.

. . You talking shit about Ernesto Clemente?

 

[Gson]

Just because I’m generally curious.

Someone in here give me the number of PAs you think is large enough to determine how a player performed for a season.

[(total team plate appearances x 0.25)]/9] = ____

 

[Criznit]

Lets look at how things stand.

Gone:

Zimmer
Chang
Bradley
Franmil

All highly thought of at one time, what do they have in common?

It should be noted you peacocked Franmil Reyes more than any other poster on this website IMO.

Posted this somewhere else but here it is again - the Major league's strikeout leaders

1.	Schwarber • PHI - was an All-Star in 2022 - NL HR leader -1.2 bWAR	197
2.	Suarez • SEA - 4.7 bWAR - .800+ OPS	189
3.	Swanson • ATL - was an All-Star in 2022 - 5.1 bWAR	180
4.	Wisdom • CHC 1.0 bWAR - .737 OPS	176
	García • TEX - 3.6bWAR - .758 OPS	176
6.	Voit • 2TM 1.1WAR	169
7.	Judge • NYY - All-Star in 2022 - THE BEAST - AL triple crown within reach still I think and - should win MVP - and 10.5 bWAR	168
	Chapman • TOR 3.4 bWAR	168
9.	Olson • ATL - our reported #1 trade target this past off-season 2.9 bWAR	164
10.	Pham • 2TM 0.8 bWAR - he sucks - also a name mentioned in acquisition riffing this past off-season	163
NA	Reyes - 2TM -1.0bWAR - somewhere in the top 15 still even though he has only appeared in 113 games.	153

Of the top 10 K machines, 3 were All-Stars - 9 of the 10 are at least league average using bWAR and most of them are better than league average. List includes both NL and AL homerun (AARON JUDGE) leaders.

I'm not overly concerned with strikeouts in the current baseball climate, many factors can mitigate high K rates, if you're willing to accept them.

I am keeping my eye on Minnesota's Matt Wallner, has boom or bust written all over him.

 

[BimboColesHair]

350 absolute minimum, but 400 sounds about right to me.

400 it is.

Now, K% for the league as a whole in 2022 right now is 22.3%. We will establish that as average.

So what would we call above average and what would we call below average?

I like nice round numbers, so a 5% spread. 2.5% up and higher is above average, 2.5% down and lower is below average. Would make the cutoffs at 24.8% and higher are high K rate hitters and 19.8% and below are low K rate players. Everyone else is average.

Fair enough?