2022 Minor League Thread

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

400 it is.

Now, K% for the league as a whole in 2022 right now is 22.3%. We will establish that as average.

So what would we call above average and what would we call below average?

I like nice round numbers, so a 5% spread. 2.5% up and higher is above average, 2.5% down and lower is below average. Would make the cutoffs at 24.8% and higher are high K rate hitters and 19.8% and below are low K rate players. Everyone else is average.

Fair enough?

You're saying the difference between average and above average is only 10 strikeouts across an entire season?

Bimbo, that seems awfully low. How could you change someone's evaluation so drastically over only 10 plate appearances?

It sounds like this metric is being severely overstated!

 

[Lee]

of note.. potential AL ROTY guys: Julio Rodriguez/George Kirby, Adley Rutschman, Jeremy Pena, Bobby Witt Jr. & Stevie Ray Kwan.. Pretty good group of rookies.. pretty good, indeed..

The big take I git out of that is the fantastic nickname of Stevie Ray Kwan, lol

 

[CATS44]

It's not even that.

Like, the soon to be AL MVP is a guy who struck out in around 30% of his minor league PAs. But who cares, what he does in the other 70%-75% of his PAs means so much more, which shouldn't surprise anyone.

Imagine looking at guys like Judge, Schwarber, Matt Chapman, Dansby Swanson, Teoscar Hernandez and any other high K rate but productive hitters and saying they have no shot because of what they do in maybe 1/4th or 1/5th of their PAs. Asinine.

I think it's somewhat poetic for this discussion that Steven Kwan and his 9.4% K rate is going to finish either 2nd or 3rd in the ROTY voting for the AL behind a kid with a 26% K rate. And the kid who most likely finishes 2nd above him causing an outcry of bitter fans is posting an 18% K rate. And the kid who most likely finishes right around or behind Kwan has a 21% K rate.

Low K rates are nice. High K rates are not nice. You can be a productive hitter as either type. For the love of God, quit obsessing over K rates.

I didn't say have no chance. I said, and always have, has LESS chance. Big difference. Huge difference.

If you want to point out the one freak (Judge) as your basis for supporting your argument that Ks and contact matter little, be my guest.

Lets look at your examples...

Julio Rodriguez entered the league with a solid foundation thru the minors...high contact, low K rate, high average.

Kyle Schwarber...high contact, low K rate, high average.

Dansby Swanson...high contact, low K rate, fairly high average.

Teoscar Hernandez....fairly high contact, low K rate, so so average.

The only one on your list, outside of Judge, that Kd a lot in the minors is Chapman.

Nice try.

Everybody is looking for the next Thome, the next Manny, the next Belle. But if you are looking at our big swingers for one, you had better look at what those guys did in the minors.

Thome...317 BA...17.6 K rate.
Manny...299 BA....19.7 K rate.
Belle......298 BA....22.9 K rate.

It seems like the concensus is that Valera is our next big thing.

Valera....248 BA...25.5 K rate

How about Jones?

Jones...278 BA....27.2 K rate.

Being able to make consistent contact in the minors DOES matter...a LOT.

Its not everything, but its by far the most important thing.

Ignore K rates at your own risk, and keep chasing good money after bad.

 

[Tondo]

NL is having just as good of a season too.

Harris, Strider, Donovan, McCarthy, Cruz, Alexis Diaz, Lodolo, Roansy Contreras.

And oh yeah, speaking of the NL rookies. ROTY award is going to go to a kid with a 24% K rate.

I'm less tolerant with high K% guys, but of course they can overcome it.

But it's not exactly the "Guardians way", though they have more power/swing and miss types coming up in Valera, Naylor, Noel.

I know you've defended NoJo before, Bimbo and he (and somewhat Benson) seems to be an exemplary case to argue about. I still can't figure out why his debut got appruptly stopped and he wasn't given the chance to work through it.
Was it the swing and miss? They do seem to prefer the contact guys. Is it just this season or how do you envision the OF pecking order to shake out?

 

[CATS44]

Don't establish averages at the MLB level.

Establish them at the minor league level, in order to make future assessments.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I do not have time to go across every level of minor league baseball over the course of multiple years to establish what the average K rate for each league and each level is in a given season.

 

[sportscoach]

We always have to look at the whole picture.

I feel like the success Cleveland has had is because they go for guys with certain types of contact skills, that have a good batters eye... I believe Cleveland has the lowest SO total in the majors. It's also easier to teach to add power to a heavy contact guy than it is to teach a heavy power hitter to add more contact.

Jones is someone people complain about, but he also takes a lot of pitches, works counts and gets on base a lot. I mean, Carlos Pena, had a career .232 BA, but his OBP .346 plus he always had a good SLG%... I don't see why Jones floor isn't that type of player. If you go by two stats alone, you will always fail scouting...

Now if I am picking players for Cleveland in a trade or projection of the draft, I will always lean towards contact who have good OBP skills (usually good batters eye as well). But that's because I don't have the film and whatnot of these guys.

@Tondo

I feel like Jones came up to get him some ABs while OGonz was hurt and just to see how he was doing. I think the switch was to see everyone else since OGonz was back... I could be wrong, but I think it was more of the numbers game rather than Jones' performance.

 

[daddywags]

Does Brennan getting regular ABs and Benson somewhat shunted aside say anything about how the franchise views them going forward, or is it just Brennan's "turn"?

 

[Criznit]

I have a very simple strikeout formula....

One per game which obviously equals 162 if you played every game of the season. Not exact, with part time appearances, etc. - but say 650 PA at 25% K = 162.5.

Perfectly acceptable if a variety of other conditions are met, but the more you creep up from here, the more one has to produce in other areas of the game.

 

[sportscoach]

Does Brennan getting regular ABs and Benson somewhat shunted aside say anything about how the franchise views them going forward, or is it just Brennan's "turn"?

I think Closer to Brennan's Turn... I am surprised we haven't seen Benson more to be honest...

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

1.	Schwarber • PHI - was an All-Star in 2022 - NL HR leader -1.2 bWAR	197
2.	Suarez • SEA - 4.7 bWAR - .800+ OPS	189
3.	Swanson • ATL - was an All-Star in 2022 - 5.1 bWAR	180
4.	Wisdom • CHC 1.0 bWAR - .737 OPS	176
	García • TEX - 3.6bWAR - .758 OPS	176
6.	Voit • 2TM 1.1WAR	169
7.	Judge • NYY - All-Star in 2022 - THE BEAST - AL triple crown within reach still I think and - should win MVP - and 10.5 bWAR	168
	Chapman • TOR 3.4 bWAR	168
9.	Olson • ATL - our reported #1 trade target this past off-season 2.9 bWAR	164
10.	Pham • 2TM 0.8 bWAR - he sucks - also a name mentioned in acquisition riffing this past off-season	163
NA	Reyes - 2TM -1.0bWAR - somewhere in the top 15 still even though he has only appeared in 113 games.	153

Harris, Strider, Donovan, McCarthy, Cruz, Alexis Diaz, Lodolo, Roansy Contreras.

And oh yeah, speaking of the NL rookies. ROTY award is going to go to a kid with a 24% K rate.

Judge, Schwarber, Matt Chapman, Dansby Swanson, Teoscar Hernandez

If you want to point out the one freak (Judge) as your basis for supporting your argument that Ks and contact matter little, be my guest.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Yeah.

There are way more than 1.

He just chooses to ignore posts listing off all the other players. Though I’m sure they’re all one of a kind freaks too.

 

[Derek]

Yeah.

There are way more than 1.

He just chooses to ignore posts listing off all the other players. Though I’m sure they’re all one of a kind freaks too.

You’re talking to a guy that weighs a prospect’s performance in A ball from 5 years ago the same as their AAA performance.

Not worth the keystrokes.

 

[BimboColesHair]

400 it is.

Now, K% for the league as a whole in 2022 right now is 22.3%. We will establish that as average.

So what would we call above average and what would we call below average?

I like nice round numbers, so a 5% spread. 2.5% up and higher is above average, 2.5% down and lower is below average. Would make the cutoffs at 24.8% and higher are high K rate hitters and 19.8% and below are low K rate players. Everyone else is average.

Fair enough?

OPS of all players with at least 400 PAs in the MLB, tiered in K% groups.

Above Average K Rate (=>24.8% K%) - .745 OPS
Average K Rate (=<24.7% =>19.9% K%) - .759 OPS
Below Average K Rate (=<19.8 K%) - .754 OPS

Pretty much what I expected, i.e. not a ton of separation.

Now, if you do want something to discuss, here is where it is interesting and falls in line with the thinking that high K rates = less of a chance to stick at the MLB level. And yes, that is something I would absolutely agree with.

Number of players with at least 400 PAs in each tier.

Above Average K Rate - 42
Average K Rate - 59
Below Average K Rate - 94

 

[Tondo]

Thanks for the digging on the stats. Also what I expected. Even distribution, but overall more low K bats get more play and the "bad" high K bats get washed out (Zimmer, B. Bradley, Chang etc)