2020-21 Offseason Discussion

[CDAV45]

I have to say that if Ramirez is moved off of 3B, it better be for a f'n AS replacement. Otherwise it's a problem that could be compounding itself.

 

[Gson]

I don't know which question is more relevant, will JRam convert to 2B or can Jones play a capable 3B? I honestly don't know how legitimate the concern that Jones cannot play 3B are. If Jones' bat is ready then I think the question is if Jones plays LF or 1B or rotates with Naylor. Thing is, Miller might be more ready than Jones and is more than capable of playing a fine 2B.

Where I get stumped is when I try to figure how all of Jones, Naylor, and Bauers get ample playing time. If I was being forced to predict what would happen, I'd say that Jones will probably start the year in Columbus while Bauers and Naylor cover 1B and LF, but that's just a guess because I have no f'n clue what they intend to do TBH.

The last time we saw Nolan Jones playing 3B.. was before he started receiving the brilliant teachings of Johnny Mac.. Jones was less than stellar defensively.. but, that might also be due to the fact that he was learning a new position.. 3B.. He was, like so many young kids.. a shortstop prior to professional ball.. There is NO DOUBT, work ethic is a strong suit for young Mr Jones...

Can Nolan Jones play 3B defensively?.. Probably.. maybe not.. who really knows.. but the likelihood is, he can do an adequate job as a ML 3B'man.. What isn't so certain.. is can he hit as an every day player.. If he can't hit LHP's, then the experiment is over before it begins.. unless the tribe pairs him with Yu Chang as the RHH platoon partner to Nolan Jone's LHH job..

We'll see...

 

[EdMonix11]

Question on Jose Ramirez RE Nolan Jones’ position. Is it out of the question the Hosey moves back to 2B to open 3B for Jones? It’s being ruled out here but has Tito or the FO actually stated that this won’t happen? Hosey played 2B as recently as 2018 and just last off season they discussed with him the option of playing either 2B or 3B (but not both) depending on free agency (they obviously signed Hernandez and he stayed at 3B). Did I miss something? If it were an option last year why not next year?

Jose Ramirez’s willingness to change creates 2020 infield options for the Cleveland Indians

Where will Jose Ramirez play for the Indians in 2020? Will it be third or second base?

www.cleveland.com

Antonetti already said Jose isn’t moving off 3B in his post season presser two weeks ago

 

[CDAV45]

Antonetti already said Jose isn’t moving off 3B in his post season presser two weeks ago

Good! Because I wasn't crazy about the idea of it.

 

[EdMonix11]

He doesn't have "stuff" outside of a good change up. He's performed well and I like his pitchability, but it's unproven at the highest level where guys like him often struggle. He may very well get selected if not protected, but there is also a good chance that he doesn't stick and gets offered back. With the current SP depth, I'd take the chance of losing Morgan over a higher ceiling guy like Oviedo.

You're looking at this the wrong way. It's not about who has the higher ceiling, it's about who you're more likely to lose. I don't care about the pitching depth, you can never have enough. You don't want to lose a good pitcher for free.... especially a guy with plus command, plus-plus spin rate and a 70+ grade pitch (Morgan).

The Indians left Oviedo unprotected in the Rule 5 draft last year and he was passed over despite being a highly talked about piece in trade talks with other teams.

Why? Well, in his most recent season, the velocity was erratic from start to start.... sitting anywhere from mid 80's in some starts and up to 97 in others.... Yes, mid 80's with the FB. The command has been very erratic as well-- walks are way up and he's missing way fewer bats as well. There's also been some injury issues there too.

I mean, Oviedo was kinda bad last year. Yes, he has a higher ceiling than Morgan but he's waaaayyyy further away from being an MLB pitcher and thus very unlikely to be selected whereas Morgan is literally knocking on the door. The jump from A+ to AA is typically the biggest jump in baseball levels and Morgan handled that well enough to earn a trip to AAA.

 

[NEOLeo]

Antonetti already said Jose isn’t moving off 3B in his post season presser two weeks ago

Thanks, I missed that. And that’s what I was looking for.

 

[CDAV45]

You're looking at this the wrong way. It's not about who has the higher ceiling, it's about who you're more likely to lose. I don't care about the pitching depth, you can never have enough. You don't want to lose a good pitcher for free.... especially a guy with plus command, plus-plus spin rate and a 70+ grade pitch (Morgan).

The Indians left Oviedo unprotected in the Rule 5 draft last year and he was passed over despite being a highly talked about piece in trade talks with other teams.

Why? Well, in his most recent season, the velocity was erratic from start to start.... sitting anywhere from mid 80's in some starts and up to 97 in others.... Yes, mid 80's with the FB. The command has been very erratic as well-- walks are way up and he's missing way fewer bats as well. There's also been some injury issues there too.

I mean, Oviedo was kinda bad last year. Yes, he has a higher ceiling than Morgan but he's waaaayyyy further away from being an MLB pitcher and thus very unlikely to be selected whereas Morgan is literally knocking on the door. The jump from A+ to AA is typically the biggest jump in baseball levels and Morgan handled that well enough to earn a trip to AAA.

You could be right, I like what Morgan has done and performance matters to me, but I feel as if a team like the Orioles would gamble on the higher upside prospect and stash him in the BP. Morgan doesn't really fit that narrative, but he could provide innings for a team lacking SP depth. For me though, Oviedo's upside is more desirable than Morgan's pitchability. I don't feel that everyone has to agree with my take. Hell, I doubt MLB execs would agree on that subject. The one thing I know for sure is that Morgan is way down the SP pecking order in Cleveland's organization. I like the idea we mentioned earlier about cutting Plutko loose and putting Morgan in his place. I would be perfectly fine with that, but I'm not ready to see Oviedo go down the road.........yet.

I found this report on 20-80 baseball. It describes my sentiments toward Eli better than I could.
"This is a confounding type of pitching prospect. Given his track record of simply getting outs everywhere he goes, you’d kick yourself for writing him off if he has success. By the same token, it’s tough to think of any 5-foot-10 starting pitcher who hangs around long while pitching near the mid-80s. I’m still more of a skeptic than true believer, though Morgan’s excellent start to the year in Double-A makes it tougher to call him a low-minors mirage altogether. I don’t think he’s durable or dynamic enough to face modern Major Leauge lineups numerous times in a traditional starting role, but it’s clear he really excels at what he does do. A realistic ceiling for Morgan is a tricky middle reliever or longman/spot-starter who soaks up multiple innings at a time."

 

[EdMonix11]

I found this report on 20-80 baseball. It describes my sentiments toward Eli better than I could.
"This is a confounding type of pitching prospect. Given his track record of simply getting outs everywhere he goes, you’d kick yourself for writing him off if he has success. By the same token, it’s tough to think of any 5-foot-10 starting pitcher who hangs around long while pitching near the mid-80s. I’m still more of a skeptic than true believer, though Morgan’s excellent start to the year in Double-A makes it tougher to call him a low-minors mirage altogether. I don’t think he’s durable or dynamic enough to face modern Major Leauge lineups numerous times in a traditional starting role, but it’s clear he really excels at what he does do. A realistic ceiling for Morgan is a tricky middle reliever or longman/spot-starter who soaks up multiple innings at a time."

20-80 also said Civale and Plesac are bullpen guys....

FWIW, Morgan has also added velocity on the FB-- sitting at 88-90 and topping out at 92.

But I'm not gonna discuss Eli Morgan vs. Luis Oviedo anymore. Like I said before, it's not about ceiling or ability. The Rule 5 draft is about who you're most likely to lose in the draft and it's Eli Morgan by a landslide. Oviedo was already exposed to the Rule 5 draft, didn't get selected and hasn't pitched since so I'm not sure why anyone would select him.

 

[MadThinker88]

......
Oviedo was already exposed to the Rule 5 draft, didn't get selected and hasn't pitched since so I'm not sure why anyone would select him.

Your point about Oviedo already being exposed in last year's R5 is accurate. Not debating or arguing that.
I was asked who I would protect by sportscoach & I listed Eli Morgan in my group along with 2 of the following 3 arms (Oviedo/ Carlos Vargas/ Gregori Vasquez) but no one asked my reasoning for such a move.

Here is the reasoning: in a timeframe when ALL 30 clubs are looking for ways to reduce costs, finding a live "big" arm that can help in the bullpen for league minimum cost is a HUGE get..

We agree that not all big arms have the control to be effective at the major league level, but for minimal cost (call it a lottery ticket) a team might uncover the next Clase/ Brusdar Graterol to help out the bullpen.

As teams are in cost cutting mode, what might be more appealing: 50k on a lottery ticket to help the bullpen or 750k (or much more) on a retread like Dominic Leone/ Joe Smith/ Joe Biagini/ Aaron Sanchez?? Yes some teams will go after the experienced vet but I suspect more teams than normal will pick up a group of lottery tickets this off-season..

 

[sportscoach]

Your point about Oviedo already being exposed in last year's R5 is accurate. Not debating or arguing that.
I was asked who I would protect by sportscoach & I listed Eli Morgan in my group along with 2 of the following 3 arms (Oviedo/ Carlos Vargas/ Gregori Vasquez) but no one asked my reasoning for such a move.

Here is the reasoning: in a timeframe when ALL 30 clubs are looking for ways to reduce costs, finding a live "big" arm that can help in the bullpen for league minimum cost is a HUGE get..

We agree that not all big arms have the control to be effective at the major league level, but for minimal cost (call it a lottery ticket) a team might uncover the next Clase/ Brusdar Graterol to help out the bullpen.

As teams are in cost cutting mode, what might be more appealing: 50k on a lottery ticket to help the bullpen or 750k (or much more) on a retread like Dominic Leone/ Joe Smith/ Joe Biagini/ Aaron Sanchez?? Yes some teams will go after the experienced vet but I suspect more teams than normal will pick up a group of lottery tickets this off-season..

Edmonix was also responding to others who stated frankly they wouldn't protect Morgan at all. I think that was more his point since I also asked him if he had to protect Morgan or Oviedo, which one would it be and he said Morgan.

I do not disagree that they should try to protect the talent, but I wouldn't do it over a guy who has the, could help us right now stuff, not the high potential with the high bust probability.

 

[DCTribefan]

Your point about Oviedo already being exposed in last year's R5 is accurate. Not debating or arguing that.
I was asked who I would protect by sportscoach & I listed Eli Morgan in my group along with 2 of the following 3 arms (Oviedo/ Carlos Vargas/ Gregori Vasquez) but no one asked my reasoning for such a move.

Here is the reasoning: in a timeframe when ALL 30 clubs are looking for ways to reduce costs, finding a live "big" arm that can help in the bullpen for league minimum cost is a HUGE get..

We agree that not all big arms have the control to be effective at the major league level, but for minimal cost (call it a lottery ticket) a team might uncover the next Clase/ Brusdar Graterol to help out the bullpen.

As teams are in cost cutting mode, what might be more appealing: 50k on a lottery ticket to help the bullpen or 750k (or much more) on a retread like Dominic Leone/ Joe Smith/ Joe Biagini/ Aaron Sanchez?? Yes some teams will go after the experienced vet but I suspect more teams than normal will pick up a group of lottery tickets this off-season..

Already, the Yankees, Mets, Astros, and Cubs have stated their intention to be frugal this off-season, which would probably preclude adding Lindor’s likely $20 million arby-3 salary. Thus, I agree that cheap lotto tickets in Rule 5 will be very attractive to most if not all teams. The new MLB economics of few if any fans in the spring of 2021 will dictate very tight-fisted payroll management.

 

[EdMonix11]

Already, the Yankees, Mets and Cubs have stated their intention to be frugal this off-season, which would probably preclude adding Lindor’s likely $20 million arby-3 salary. Thus, I agree that cheap lotto tickets in Rule 5 will be very attractive to most if not all teams. The new MLB economics of few if any fans in the spring of 2021 will dictate very tight-fisted payroll management.

So the NHL is the first major professional league to start their offseason and here's what went down:

The top FA (Alex Pietrangelo) pretty much got the NHL's equivalent of a max deal ($8.8 AAV / 7 years). The 2nd best FA (Taylor Hall) took basically max money ($8M) but on a one year deal. The 3rd best FA (Torey Krug) took a 7 year deal at an AAV of $6.5M (~$1-1.5M less than pre-covid projections)

The rest of the free agent class had a similar dilemma-- take a little more money on the short term and bet on yourself or take a longer term deal and take a bit of a haircut.

Thus, I don't think there's going to be an influx of guys being selected in the Rule 5 draft or anything like that. Teams still want to be competitive, if it's a realistic possibility. What you're going to see is veteran players just taking less money on shorter term deals-- they gotta play to feed their families, ya know? Further, these Rule 5 elgible guys haven't played baseball in a year so I'm not sure how anyone could have any realistic expectations for their potential contributions.

So what I'm trying to say is, yeah, baseball's economics may have changed due to covid but so will the players. What I've found with the NHL is that teams are VERY concerned about term (i.e. long term financial commitments).

 

[Gson]

Your point about Oviedo already being exposed in last year's R5 is accurate. Not debating or arguing that.
I was asked who I would protect by sportscoach & I listed Eli Morgan in my group along with 2 of the following 3 arms (Oviedo/ Carlos Vargas/ Gregori Vasquez) but no one asked my reasoning for such a move.

Here is the reasoning: in a timeframe when ALL 30 clubs are looking for ways to reduce costs, finding a live "big" arm that can help in the bullpen for league minimum cost is a HUGE get..

We agree that not all big arms have the control to be effective at the major league level, but for minimal cost (call it a lottery ticket) a team might uncover the next Clase/ Brusdar Graterol to help out the bullpen.

As teams are in cost cutting mode, what might be more appealing: 50k on a lottery ticket to help the bullpen or 750k (or much more) on a retread like Dominic Leone/ Joe Smith/ Joe Biagini/ Aaron Sanchez?? Yes some teams will go after the experienced vet but I suspect more teams than normal will pick up a group of lottery tickets this off-season..

...... who I would protect .......3 arms (Oviedo/ Carlos Vargas/ Gregori Vasquez)...

Here is the reasoning: ........

Your reasoning is always welcome..

A key point being what is the purpose behind protecting guys: Because they can become ML'ers.. Oviedo has the raw talent to become that.. but he needs to regain his command and control abilities he was growing into up until & through the 2019 season.. afterwards.. not so much.. but the raw talent is still there.. it might cost him a tick or two on his FB.. but, my guess.. he can keep the tick or two he has if he focuses on fitness & diet.. I've been a Carlos Vargas for a while.. He has a huge and incredible arm.. has all the tools to be as good as he wants.. and should be protected.. again.. discipline.. repeating mechanics.. work ethic and fitness remain as his list of "work ons" as he matures.. IDK much about Gregori Vasquez to say yeah, nay or otherwise..

You know what I think of Eli Morgan..

 

[Kevalier]

Already, the Yankees, Mets and Cubs have stated their intention to be frugal this off-season, which would probably preclude adding Lindor’s likely $20 million arby-3 salary. Thus, I agree that cheap lotto tickets in Rule 5 will be very attractive to most if not all teams. The new MLB economics of few if any fans in the spring of 2021 will dictate very tight-fisted payroll management.

Where did you read that the Mets are planning on being frugal this offseason? I’ve read reports indicating the opposite.

 

[DCTribefan]

Where did you read that the Mets are planning on being frugal this offseason? I’ve read reports indicating the opposite.

Article in NY Post said new owner wanted to go heavy on analytics and be cautious on spending. I linked the article several weeks ago in the Lindor trade ideas thread.