2020 Draft Prospects Thread

[Jordan]

I've given up on scouting safeties based off youtube film. I thought Eddie Jackson was undraftable.

I cannot figure out what’s worse, scouting them in man or zone...

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

Ahh, you meant in the top ten safeties. I thought you meant top ten overall.

Gotta be Stone or Wallace. I'm gonna guess Stone out of Iowa?

Might as well as come out and say it.

It's Alohi Gilman. They have him ranked in the 80s. And he is not at all good.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Might as well as come out and say it.

It's Alohi Gilman. They have him ranked in the 80s. And he is not at all good.

Damn, never would've guessed.

The most recent big board I found on that website (Benjamin Solak's) has him ranked 175

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I cannot figure out what’s worse, scouting them in man or zone...

I think scouting zone is harder unless you're watching a FS play cover 1.

Back to the OL talk, I think I have Wills ahead of Wirfs now. I'd still prefer Thomas, but I'm gonna go Wills second, Wirfs third.

I still take Simmons over all of them if he's available.

 

[Randolphkeys]

There are six safeties I have some level of interest in drafting. After that it's a lot of special teams rype guys who have some schemes where they can get on the field, but holes in their game that need correction. I trust Sheldrick Redwine more than everyone but the following:

McKinney, Chinn, Delpit, Duggar, Davis, Winfield. That might be the order of my interest as well, still deciding.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

There are six safeties I have some level of interest in drafting. After that it's a lot of special teams rype guys who have some schemes where they can get on the field, but holes in their game that need correction. I trust Sheldrick Redwine more than everyone but the following:

McKinney, Chinn, Delpit, Duggar, Davis, Winfield. That might be the order of my interest as well, still deciding.

Drafting Kyle Dugger over Ashtyn Davis would be interesting.

Depends on style and need, I suppose. Two totally opposite players in terms of style of play. And level of interest of day one impact on the field.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Drafting Kyle Dugger over Ashtyn Davis would be interesting.

Depends on style and need, I suppose. Two totally opposite players in terms of style of play. And level of interest of day one impact on the field.

Yeah, Davis is more prepared to play safety right now.

Dugger is projected as a strong safety or even a linebacker, but he primarily played deep coverage in college. In deep coverage, he was productive: Dugger finished his career with 10 picks, 36 pass breakups, six forced fumbles, two blocked kicks and, as a returner, six punt returns for touchdowns. He has the athleticism and definitely has the size to move all over the defensive backfield, but he doesn't have recognition yet. Bring him into a film room with a veteran strong safety like Andrew Sendejo who has played for almost a decade in the system Jeff Howard and Joe Woods want to play, and you may not see a higher ceiling in this draft.

It's going to be fun seeing how Karl Joseph is utilized. He was a pure strong safety in college, bit is undersized and has a history of injuries playing in the box. A safety with size is a quality investment, especially with needs at linebacker as well.

 

[Jordan]

So I was messing around with the PFF mock draft simulator and it is quite cool. This draft is from one where teams care only a little about positional value (something I think is realistic), are drafting for needs (also realistic), the “big board” is half PFF and half public (something that I think is *very realistic* - analytics will play a bigger role because teams cannot meet/see as many players due to COVID), and is not random at all (I do not think there will be many surprises).

PFF really likes my draft, though I am not sure if that is a good or bad thing.

My strategy was to improve the offensive line (Thomas is my favorite and I really do like Lamieux out of Oregon - he’s a great pass protector), add one receiver that could eventually replace Landry (Jefferson’s size and route running make him perfect), and take a bunch of stabs at safety and linebacker. I was pleased with the outcome.

Also, editing to add another mock draft that I did with the big board as 75% PFF, and same overall strategy. This one I got Wirfs instead of Thomas, but my overall plan is the same.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Hard to beat the value on Logan Wilson, I hope the Browns get a chance to pick him up on Day 3. I finally identified the comp for Terrell Burgess in my mind: Brian Poole formerly of the Falcons, now the Jets. He is physical and should see most of his reps in the slot rather than in the box or as an outside corner.

 

[Jordan]

Hard to beat the value on Logan Wilson, I hope the Browns get a chance to pick him up on Day 3. I finally identified the comp for Terrell Burgess in my mind: Brian Poole formerly of the Falcons, now the Jets. He is physical and should see most of his reps in the slot rather than in the box or as an outside corner.

Heh, I actually came to the same comp a few days ago. I think Burgess is a guy that a team can use in unique ways and will allow for diverse coverages. I am not saying he is Jimmie Ward, but I do really believe Burgess has a role as a starter or frequent utility player in the NFL.

And yeah, PFF's simulation is the only one that continuously has Wilson dropping to day three. I have Dye, Wilson, and Willie Gay Jr. as my "day-three" linebackers that I think could benefit the Browns this year. I also think it is possible that, by pick 74, all but one of them are gone.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Heh, I actually came to the same comp a few days ago. I think Burgess is a guy that a team can use in unique ways and will allow for diverse coverages. I am not saying he is Jimmie Ward, but I do really believe Burgess has a role as a starter or frequent utility player in the NFL.

Eric Murray just made 6 million a year for being a guy who doesn't really fit one position in the defensive backfield, no reason Burgess can't help a team. If we want to talk about a true safety to push Sandejo and Redwine, I just don't know if he is that guy.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

So I was messing around with the PFF mock draft simulator and it is quite cool. This draft is from one where teams care only a little about positional value (something I think is realistic), are drafting for needs (also realistic), the “big board” is half PFF and half public (something that I think is *very realistic* - analytics will play a bigger role because teams cannot meet/see as many players due to COVID), and is not random at all (I do not think there will be many surprises).

PFF really likes my draft, though I am not sure if that is a good or bad thing.

My strategy was to improve the offensive line (Thomas is my favorite and I really do like Lamieux out of Oregon - he’s a great pass protector), add one receiver that could eventually replace Landry (Jefferson’s size and route running make him perfect), and take a bunch of stabs at safety and linebacker. I was pleased with the outcome.

Also, editing to add another mock draft that I did with the big board as 75% PFF, and same overall strategy. This one I got Wirfs instead of Thomas, but my overall plan is the same.

I'm an idiot.

I got fed up with that PFF mock draft simulator because it kept ending after the first round. I completely missed the option to select the number of rounds to draft for.

For anyone else as stupid as I, that setting is here:

 

[Jordan]

Eric Murray just made 6 million a year for being a guy who doesn't really fit one position in the defensive backfield, no reason Burgess can't help a team. If we want to talk about a true safety to push Sandejo and Redwine, I just don't know if he is that guy.

A big problem with this draft is there are not a lot of true box safeties. I think guys like Delpit and Davis - while good prospects - are deep safeties. Later round guys like Burgess and Blackmon seem to be utility guys, slot safeties, or cover-2 specialists.

Guys like Chinn and McKinney can probably be do-it-all safeties, which is really what teams should be looking for, but my fear is both of those guys go before pick #41.

Dugger and Brandon Jones are definitely box safeties in the NFL, so there are a few, but I am not sure where you draft those guys. Dugger looks quite good on tape, and he has metrics to back that up, but he was only meh in zone coverage.

I actually think that, if the Browns are looking to find at least one starting safety for next year in this draft, their strategy should be drafting two or three of them. Safeties have a higher rate of being "safe picks" because they are versatile players. They do not bust all that frequently, even in later rounds. The problem is that it is very hard to actually "hit" on a net-positive starting safety. This draft has a lot of day 2/3 guys with easily-translatable skills, but major flaws, and the Browns' best bet may be taking a bunch of them and seeing which pan out.

 

[Jack Brickman]

I made a post a few pages ago about at least one of the top-8 receivers most likely dropping. I think two of the most likely candidates are Raegor and Laviska Shanault.

I do not think it’s out of the realm of possibility that the Browns draft a receiver in the second round. They won’t reach on one, but if they have a mid-to-low first round grade on a receiver that drops, then I imagine DePo and Berry will draft him.

Van Jefferson looks like a guy that may go much higher than projected. He’s the best route runner in the draft, and while not having elite speed or hands, Jefferson is a film darling. I could honestly see him getting picked before a guy like Mims.

My favorite receivers in this draft class (in no particular order):

CeeDee Lamb
Laviska Shenault
Denzel Mims
Bryan Edwards
Justin Jefferson
Jalen Reagor

I'd think we'd value size in a WR in this draft given that our two best receivers are both under six feet, so that probably leaves Reagor out and I imagine he'll be gone by the time we're drafting a receiver anyway. Lamb likely will be as well, although I'd love to draft him if he somehow fell to us. There are a handful of other receivers I like in this class too (it's very deep on paper), but those six above are my favorites and I think we'll have a shot at several of them.

 

[Jordan]

My favorite receivers in this draft class (in no particular order):

CeeDee Lamb
Laviska Shenault
Denzel Mims
Bryan Edwards
Justin Jefferson
Jalen Reagor

I'd think we'd value size in a WR in this draft given that our two best receivers are both under six feet, so that probably leaves Reagor out and I imagine he'll be gone by the time we're drafting a receiver anyway. Lamb likely will be as well, although I'd love to draft him if he somehow fell to us. There are a handful of other receivers I like in this class too (it's very deep on paper), but those six above are my favorites and I think we'll have a shot at several of them.

I think the Browns are looking for any single or combination of three things:

1) Filling in a hole on offense
2) Size
3) Replacing Jarvis in 1-2 years

The ideal player would be someone who is speedy and can currently make plays as a gadget guy, is tall, and eventually becomes the starter opposite OBJ. I think the only guy available in the second-round who meets that criteria are Laviska Shenault and, potentially, Denzel Mims.

As you get into day three, there are guys like Van Jefferson and K.J. Hill who give you some size and are future Jarvis-replacements; and others that could probably contribute now but will not replace Jarvis, like a Chase Claypool or Brandon Aiyuk.