2020 NBA Draft

[TyGuy]

I’m seeing 6.9 blocks per 100 for wiseman and a 13.4 block percentage. Both are really good. It’s a small sample size, but it’s all we really have.

 

[Nathan S]

I’m seeing 6.9 blocks per 100 for wiseman and a 13.4 block percentage. Both are really good. It’s a small sample size, but it’s all we really have.

Misleading because 8 of his 9 blocks were in blowout wins against cupcake opponents: South Carolina State and Illinois-Chicago. I think it's reasonable to take the game against Oregon as the better example of how he might look in the NBA.

 

[ajz20]

I buy that description of him. Disagree that he has some special star potential that makes him worth a mid/high lottery pick. Sure, it doesn't hurt to be big and athletic, but how many current All-Stars were drafted primarily for size and athleticism rather than skill?

All star and special star are not the same thing . There are plenty of players that make all star games who are not super stars. There are always teams reaching for projects . I would be very surprised if he made it out of the top 10 with the lack of superior talent in this class.

 

[TyGuy]

Misleading because 8 of his 9 blocks were in blowout wins against cupcake opponents: South Carolina State and Illinois-Chicago. I think it's reasonable to take the game against Oregon as the better example of how he might look in the NBA.

Yeah, unfortunately we just don’t have much to go on. A full season would have given us a good idea of what he’s capable of.

 

[blommen]

If you're a legit modern center you don't need to space the floor as long as you can be a great pick setter and rim runner, provide excellent defense and rebounding. Being able to make spot up threes would be a bonus, but I care more about defense from my big. Gobert isn't good at defending in space, but that doesn't stop him from making a massive impact on defense.

I generally agree with regards to defense from Big men, but that has to encompass perimeter D. Gobert has been exploited on the perimeter during the playoffs several times by now, and the fact that such a brilliant rim protector still is imminently exploitable on defense in todays league further underlines how important defensive versatility is from your cornerstone Big.

Furthermore, and this is important, Wiseman has not shown anything that indicates that he is even close to the type of rim protector Gobert is. Even if being a stand out rim protector was enough to anchor and sustain a top of the line Defense in the modern game, there is nowhere near enough evidence to support the argument that Wiseman has that very same potential.

I think taking that type of big man at the top of the lottery is a bad move. For it to be worth it he would have to develop and expand his game far beyond what there is any reason to expect or he would have to be a rim protecting savant, which he hasn’t shown signs of either.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I buy that description of him. Disagree that he has some special star potential that makes him worth a mid/high lottery pick. Sure, it doesn't hurt to be big and athletic, but how many current All-Stars were drafted primarily for size and athleticism rather than skill?

People smarter than me have said he reminds them of Myles Turner. So if you believe he can be a more athletic version of Myles Turner, that guy might be a special player. Myles Turner sans physical limitations.

Do I think that is realistic? Honestly, no clue but draft people who have seen and worked with him recently have all said he has unrealized shooting potential that he’s just starting to scratch the surface on.

It was a small sample but his FT shooting took a significant spike from HS to college......which maybe intimates the above. Certainly his workouts will be interesting.

The reason I take Wiseman #1 right now is that he’s a worker with considerable physical talent. That combination has a high rate of success. I have no idea what he actually is.....just that I think a player who has his skill, size, athleticism and work ethic is a safer bet as a good NBA player, at his position, than most every other guy I’ve watched at the top of this draft.

 

[Nathan S]

People smarter than me have said he reminds them of Myles Turner. So if you believe he can be a more athletic version of Myles Turner, that guy might be a special player. Myles Turner sans physical limitations.

Do I think that is realistic? Honestly, no clue but draft people who have seen and worked with him recently have all said he has unrealized shooting potential that he’s just starting to scratch the surface on.

It was a small sample but his FT shooting took a significant spike from HS to college......which maybe intimates the above. Certainly his workouts will be interesting.

The reason I take Wiseman #1 right now is that he’s a worker with considerable physical talent. That combination has a high rate of success. I have no idea what he actually is.....just that I think a player who has his skill, size, athleticism and work ethic is a safer bet as a good NBA player, at his position, than most every other guy I’ve watched at the top of this draft.

Well, there's no shortage of work ethic/rebound/dunk bigs, especially in this draft. So I'd really have to be sold on the skill differential between him and those other guys to spend a high lottery pick on him. The post game alone won't cut it...that's way too far down on the list of in-demand skills. The shooting might, if he can really back it up in a workout. The lack of reflexes as a ballhandler and as a decision maker with the ball stood out to me when I watched him against Oregon and made me think "roleplayer."

 

[Nathan S]

All else being equal, would you draft a 6'8-6'9" center with the ability to switch and guard the perimeter, or a 7'0-7'1" center with more shot blocking potential?

 

[Muffinalt]

All else being equal, would you draft a 6'8-6'9" center with the ability to switch and guard the perimeter, or a 7'0-7'1" center with more shot blocking potential?

Yeah I really don't know. Is there data that shows what is more valuable in today's league? More and more teams are playing without shotblocking, but a really good rim protector is still a great thing, something that creates advantage for you at least to my naked eye. Ideally you want both to mix and matchup.

I think it should be easier to find switchable 6'9 guys nowadays in the latter parts of the draft than shotblockers who aren't a complete liability to be played off the court. So I think with this logic, the actual real rim protector is the more premium asset.

But really I don't know what's more effective based on stats. Teams like Boston, Houston and LA heavily in spots seem to vote for playing small.

I think the shift is already here, that the previous tweeners and 6'9 etc guys that were in no man's land before can now be full time centers. So probably the draft will showcase the trend too, and we will see a whole bunch of 6'9ish guys being drafted after the lottery and in the second. I expect there to be plenty supply as opposed to capable rim protectors. This draft is already an example kind of.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Rim protector is probably more important now. Switching is not very effective compared to zone or a good anchor.

 

[LackOfSkill]

A rim protecting big is far more valuable to the Cavs than a switchy player as currently constructed.

It depends how tied you are to the current backcourt. Being that the front office who made those picks is still in place, they're obviously tied to those picks and may favor a big's fit more than best player available. I see an argument for Okongwu (switchy) over Wiseman (rim protection) as players in a vacuum, but much of Okongwu's switching ability would be negated with having a smaller guard out there at all times. Sexton has improved as a defender this season, but I don't think a coaching staff would put either him or Garland into a switch heavy scheme. Okongwu's movement could still provide value in late clock situations, hedge/recover type of coverages, etc., but rim protection would be the most important skill from a big for the current roster in my opinion.

Whether you think Wiseman can provide that rim protection is another question.

 

[I'mWithDan]

All else being equal, would you draft a 6'8-6'9" center with the ability to switch and guard the perimeter, or a 7'0-7'1" center with more shot blocking potential?

I think there is a little more context you'd have to provide.

A guy who looks passable on the perimeter, with shot blocking potential? Sure.
A guy glued to the floor on the perimeter, with shot blocking potential? No.

If you have passable perimeter movement, with shot blocking potential, that allows that player to stay on the floor during crunch time......to me, making him more valuable than a switchy center who doesn't provide you that extra layer of defense.

I think there's just too much freedom of movement in the NBA (for offensive players) to value switching alone over a legitimate rim protector. It's just really hard to stay in front of guys with how the rules are constructed......the one defensive advantage left is having a player who can effect a game around the restricted area. There's been a lot of interesting studies on how block shots can correlate with defensive rating metrics.

The one nuance here would also be how a player challenges shots.....does he keep blocks in play, is he good at contesting without fouling, does he have the defensive gravity to alter shots by being in the area, etc. etc. If you build inside out with defense, that still seems like the best recipe for success, if you think a Wiseman type player can stay on the floor during crunch time and generally not always be in foul trouble.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Just to put some context on Wiseman's brief stat blip, he really was producing at levels (defensively) that we have seen only from Anthony Davis.

In the possession era, the only per 100 4+ BLK+STL+OREB/PF was Davis at 4.568. Just a ludicrous outlier, when you look at the players who have played in that time period. Just the ability to influence a game without fouling. Through 3 games, Wiseman was at 4.570.

I think the one really undersold aspect of that statistic, for Wiseman, is how active he was on the glass. 24.3 total rebounds per 100 is absolutely elite. And he had an offensive rebound percentage of 20+. It isn't just that he gets blocks, it's that he rebounds offensively, defensively and defends the rim. That is a really tough trio to find.

He also drew fouls at an obscene clip per 100. That will drag down at the next level, against better athletes, but if his shooting at the FT is actually improved as much as it seemed, that is a way he can potentially generate more efficient offense as he grows in to some of his perimeter skills.

Edwards is the only other enticing player to me at this point, if we are focusing on just the top of the draft....because of his age / production / physical skill combo. If he plays the last half of the season, similar to some of his recent tape, I think he's the player you select at #1. If his shot making is real, it would be really tough to pass on him given the limited data on Wiseman......but I do think this is a year where the top 2 should be those 2 players.

 

[Nathan S]

I think there is a little more context you'd have to provide.

A guy who looks passable on the perimeter, with shot blocking potential? Sure.
A guy glued to the floor on the perimeter, with shot blocking potential? No.

If you have passable perimeter movement, with shot blocking potential, that allows that player to stay on the floor during crunch time......to me, making him more valuable than a switchy center who doesn't provide you that extra layer of defense.

I think there's just too much freedom of movement in the NBA (for offensive players) to value switching alone over a legitimate rim protector. It's just really hard to stay in front of guys with how the rules are constructed......the one defensive advantage left is having a player who can effect a game around the restricted area. There's been a lot of interesting studies on how block shots can correlate with defensive rating metrics.

The one nuance here would also be how a player challenges shots.....does he keep blocks in play, is he good at contesting without fouling, does he have the defensive gravity to alter shots by being in the area, etc. etc. If you build inside out with defense, that still seems like the best recipe for success, if you think a Wiseman type player can stay on the floor during crunch time and generally not always be in foul trouble.

Can think of two possible comparisons, depending which prospects exactly we're talking about:

1. The 7'0"-7'1" center really has slow feet on the perimeter, simply can't defend the 3-point line without giving up a blow-by. But the 6'8"-6'9" center is really a pure rebounder in the paint, a guy who'll at best average a shade under 1 block per game.

2. The 7'0"-7'1" center moves well enough on the perimeter, only occasionally caught flat-footed or troubled by quicker guards. The 6'8"-6'9" center is a fairly active shot blocker for his size, not Ben Wallace but good enough that it's not a weakness.

I think I agree with your conclusion, though. Size isn't going out of style. If two players are equally productive at the college level, I take the taller guy 10 times out of 10.

Just to put some context on Wiseman's brief stat blip, he really was producing at levels (defensively) that we have seen only from Anthony Davis.

In the possession era, the only per 100 4+ BLK+STL+OREB/PF was Davis at 4.568. Just a ludicrous outlier, when you look at the players who have played in that time period. Just the ability to influence a game without fouling. Through 3 games, Wiseman was at 4.570.

I think the one really undersold aspect of that statistic, for Wiseman, is how active he was on the glass. 24.3 total rebounds per 100 is absolutely elite. And he had an offensive rebound percentage of 20+. It isn't just that he gets blocks, it's that he rebounds offensively, defensively and defends the rim. That is a really tough trio to find.

He also drew fouls at an obscene clip per 100. That will drag down at the next level, against better athletes, but if his shooting at the FT is actually improved as much as it seemed, that is a way he can potentially generate more efficient offense as he grows in to some of his perimeter skills.

Edwards is the only other enticing player to me at this point, if we are focusing on just the top of the draft....because of his age / production / physical skill combo. If he plays the last half of the season, similar to some of his recent tape, I think he's the player you select at #1. If his shot making is real, it would be really tough to pass on him given the limited data on Wiseman......but I do think this is a year where the top 2 should be those 2 players.

Again, the tricky thing is that two of the three games in our sample were against worthless opponents. It's common for elite bigs to put up absurd numbers against teams like that. Okongwu for instance tallied 7 offensive boards and 8 blocks in his season opener against Florida A&M. It's like when the Cavs played that team from Argentina in preseason...yeah, everyone looked really good, but it's easy to look good when your opponent is so hopelessly outmatched.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Again, the tricky thing is that two of the three games in our sample were against worthless opponents. It's common for elite bigs to put up absurd numbers against teams like that. Okongwu for instance tallied 7 offensive boards and 8 blocks in his season opener against Florida A&M. It's like when the Cavs played that team from Argentina in preseason...yeah, everyone looked really good, but it's easy to look good when your opponent is so hopelessly outmatched.

Yes, I really don't know how useful the data is, if at all.......but almost all of it is elite in what amounts to a 7-9% sample size of a college season. It more was just pointing out that his initial analytic blip was about as good as it could be.

I like more of what I have seen out of Edwards but I really get scared seeing his FT/3PT percentage combinations. He's just a really average FT shooter.......and I start to wonder exactly what he is at the NBA level with a lot of good but not great skills?

Part of Wiseman, that I think helps him, is his physical tools + the unknown. I'm almost more willing to gamble on him hitting a defensive ceiling than I am on someone like Edwards, who doesn't have any 1 specific standout skill, developing one. Maybe I'm being too harsh on Edwards but he profiles, through about half a college season here, as just a generic 1st round wing. This is potentially where you need to set some of the data aside and pair it evenly with traditional scouting methods......because my eyes tend to like him more than any of the numbers I see.