I’m seeing 6.9 blocks per 100 for wiseman and a 13.4 block percentage. Both are really good. It’s a small sample size, but it’s all we really have.
All star and special star are not the same thing . There are plenty of players that make all star games who are not super stars. There are always teams reaching for projects . I would be very surprised if he made it out of the top 10 with the lack of superior talent in this class.I buy that description of him. Disagree that he has some special star potential that makes him worth a mid/high lottery pick. Sure, it doesn't hurt to be big and athletic, but how many current All-Stars were drafted primarily for size and athleticism rather than skill?
Yeah, unfortunately we just don’t have much to go on. A full season would have given us a good idea of what he’s capable of.Misleading because 8 of his 9 blocks were in blowout wins against cupcake opponents: South Carolina State and Illinois-Chicago. I think it's reasonable to take the game against Oregon as the better example of how he might look in the NBA.
If you're a legit modern center you don't need to space the floor as long as you can be a great pick setter and rim runner, provide excellent defense and rebounding. Being able to make spot up threes would be a bonus, but I care more about defense from my big. Gobert isn't good at defending in space, but that doesn't stop him from making a massive impact on defense.
I buy that description of him. Disagree that he has some special star potential that makes him worth a mid/high lottery pick. Sure, it doesn't hurt to be big and athletic, but how many current All-Stars were drafted primarily for size and athleticism rather than skill?
People smarter than me have said he reminds them of Myles Turner. So if you believe he can be a more athletic version of Myles Turner, that guy might be a special player. Myles Turner sans physical limitations.
Do I think that is realistic? Honestly, no clue but draft people who have seen and worked with him recently have all said he has unrealized shooting potential that he’s just starting to scratch the surface on.
It was a small sample but his FT shooting took a significant spike from HS to college......which maybe intimates the above. Certainly his workouts will be interesting.
The reason I take Wiseman #1 right now is that he’s a worker with considerable physical talent. That combination has a high rate of success. I have no idea what he actually is.....just that I think a player who has his skill, size, athleticism and work ethic is a safer bet as a good NBA player, at his position, than most every other guy I’ve watched at the top of this draft.
All else being equal, would you draft a 6'8-6'9" center with the ability to switch and guard the perimeter, or a 7'0-7'1" center with more shot blocking potential?
All else being equal, would you draft a 6'8-6'9" center with the ability to switch and guard the perimeter, or a 7'0-7'1" center with more shot blocking potential?
I think there is a little more context you'd have to provide.
A guy who looks passable on the perimeter, with shot blocking potential? Sure.
A guy glued to the floor on the perimeter, with shot blocking potential? No.
If you have passable perimeter movement, with shot blocking potential, that allows that player to stay on the floor during crunch time......to me, making him more valuable than a switchy center who doesn't provide you that extra layer of defense.
I think there's just too much freedom of movement in the NBA (for offensive players) to value switching alone over a legitimate rim protector. It's just really hard to stay in front of guys with how the rules are constructed......the one defensive advantage left is having a player who can effect a game around the restricted area. There's been a lot of interesting studies on how block shots can correlate with defensive rating metrics.
The one nuance here would also be how a player challenges shots.....does he keep blocks in play, is he good at contesting without fouling, does he have the defensive gravity to alter shots by being in the area, etc. etc. If you build inside out with defense, that still seems like the best recipe for success, if you think a Wiseman type player can stay on the floor during crunch time and generally not always be in foul trouble.
Just to put some context on Wiseman's brief stat blip, he really was producing at levels (defensively) that we have seen only from Anthony Davis.
In the possession era, the only per 100 4+ BLK+STL+OREB/PF was Davis at 4.568. Just a ludicrous outlier, when you look at the players who have played in that time period. Just the ability to influence a game without fouling. Through 3 games, Wiseman was at 4.570.
I think the one really undersold aspect of that statistic, for Wiseman, is how active he was on the glass. 24.3 total rebounds per 100 is absolutely elite. And he had an offensive rebound percentage of 20+. It isn't just that he gets blocks, it's that he rebounds offensively, defensively and defends the rim. That is a really tough trio to find.
He also drew fouls at an obscene clip per 100. That will drag down at the next level, against better athletes, but if his shooting at the FT is actually improved as much as it seemed, that is a way he can potentially generate more efficient offense as he grows in to some of his perimeter skills.
Edwards is the only other enticing player to me at this point, if we are focusing on just the top of the draft....because of his age / production / physical skill combo. If he plays the last half of the season, similar to some of his recent tape, I think he's the player you select at #1. If his shot making is real, it would be really tough to pass on him given the limited data on Wiseman......but I do think this is a year where the top 2 should be those 2 players.
Again, the tricky thing is that two of the three games in our sample were against worthless opponents. It's common for elite bigs to put up absurd numbers against teams like that. Okongwu for instance tallied 7 offensive boards and 8 blocks in his season opener against Florida A&M. It's like when the Cavs played that team from Argentina in preseason...yeah, everyone looked really good, but it's easy to look good when your opponent is so hopelessly outmatched.