Current status: The Browns have not been aggressive -- at least not yet -- with re-signing Mayfield, who has made clear he
cares very little about negotiations. That's not necessarily a concern, though. The Browns have looked to extend several core players, starting with running back
Nick Chubb last month. They've begun discussions with cornerback
Denzel Ward, though a deal is considered a long shot as of now.
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As I'm hearing, there's a strong chance Mayfield enters this season without a deal, but the Browns do believe Mayfield -- whose fifth-year option for 2022 was picked up -- can be their long-term answer at quarterback, and Mayfield knows that. So eventually, the team must decide whether that faith is strong enough to acknowledge a QB market that balloons by the month.
Mayfield isn't expected to reach
Josh Allen's six-year, $258 million extension signed earlier this month, so maybe that alleviates pressure on both sides. But Allen became the third quarterback to reach the $40 million annual plateau and the fifth at $35 million or above. That range is now a starting point for any young quarterback who can make a case as a top-15 passer.
So since Mayfield's deal is the most complicated Cleveland faces, the Browns seem to be gauging the market of other players first, getting a clear picture of their salary cap before coming over the top with the quarterback. Mayfield's reps have a good working relationship with the Browns, so talks will indeed reignite.
Verdict: I think this one plays out a little longer than expected, with the possibility of an in-season deal or Mayfield shutting talks down himself. Mayfield's home run leverage is in 2022. If he plays really well and the Browns have more playoff success, his outlook is really strong. He would be one year from free agency, and the Browns would have to elevate him at that point. Betting on himself -- something Mayfield seems to embrace -- is a good play.
The quarterback market has reached a boiling point, with
Russell Wilson falling to fifth in quarterback pay 28 months after a landmark four-year, $140 million deal. Mayfield likely needs to be, at the least, halfway between Wilson and Allen in compensation, and it's uncertain whether Cleveland is willing to get there.
But Waters has Mayfield coming in strong with his proposal: five years with $206 million in new cash, $152.6 million over the next three years, a $30 million signing bonus and $143 million total guaranteed. Big option bonuses over the first two years are necessary to get this payout high for cap purposes, Waters said.
That puts him below Allen but ahead of
Dak Prescott, who, interestingly enough, is a comp that several NFL evaluators make for Mayfield's ceiling as a player. The guarantees would be in line with edge rusher
Myles Garrett, who got a reported $100 million in total guarantees from Cleveland last summer as part of his $125 million extension over five years.
play
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Greeny has a message for Baker Mayfield detractors
Mike Greenberg explains why Baker Mayfield deserves credit for turning the Browns into a Super Bowl contender.
Aftermath: I can't overstate the importance of this deal, a litmus test for how much teams will pay for good quarterbacks just outside of the top tier. Mayfield could become great with another year, but evaluators don't see him as a top-10 guy just yet. So the Browns' team-building method comes into focus.
The outlandish payouts have some teams wondering if drafting first-round passers every three or four years is an easier path, a revolving door of cheap rookie deals at the game's most important position to free up money for other positions. That's easier said than done, and an underplayed angle is how the Browns would manage the storyline of
not doing a deal. They are an ascending team with nothing but good vibes, and extending Mayfield reinforces that the franchise is all in on this group. Not doing it plants a seed of doubt.
