2021 Draft Prospects Thread

[Smooth]

Regardless of who's available or what the WR room contract situation is, WR is just not a position valued in this team's team building, nor is it used heavily in Stefanski's offense..

But if you want to use OBJ and Landry contracts as a reason to draft a WR, I still don't see it... OBJ is locked up for two more years after this year, at a extremely reasonable rate for a premium WR (his cap hit will be ranked 15th amongst WRs next year) and Landry only has one more year after this year... If the Browns are trying to remain competitive within the next couple years, why would they let go two of their better players? I understand the economic portion of getting similar production out of a WR at a lower rate, but OBJ is already valuable in his current situation, and Landry only has one more year... The Browns WR situation behind them (Hodge, Higgins and DPJ all making near minimum salaries) also allows for a top-heavy room... If anything, I see them as restructure candidates more so than release/trade candidates...

If you want to talk contractual situations past 2021 at least OBJ and Landry are under contract... This is who's under contract on the DL and DB side past 2021:
Myles Garrett
Jordan Elliott

Denzel Ward
Troy Hill
Greedy Williams

John Johnson III
Grant Delpit
Sheldrick Redwine

If you're using the contractual commitment side of things, DL needs to be hit hard and hit early and more so than WR...

Say the scenario happens where one of OBJ or Landry is let go.. We already saw what the offense would look like should that happen last year... Even without OBJ, the Browns were still one of the more productive offenses in the league and fared just fine with a group of Landry/Higgins/DPJ/Hodge... That doesn't mean that group doesn't need upgraded, it just means it doesn't need upgraded in the 1st or 2nd round...

Higgins has been as productive and as effective of a WR in the whole league when called upon... His contract the last two years is more so indicative of the WR market and the Browns conscientous decisions to not overly invest in Landry and OBJ because of their cap hits and because WR is not a premium analytical position...

If this draft is deep at WR, that's even more of a reason to wait and reap the rewards in the middle rounds when they can afford to take a WR, not early on...

 

[Mr. Orange]

I’ll trust AB and Paul but I imagine they take a WR in the first three rounds. Likely not at 26 unless someone they love falls but it should be in the mix. We want to build a sustainable winner.

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

It looks similar, but it’s substantially more extreme for corner. Teams tend to be good at evaluating corner - better than any other position. This means there is less variance in outcomes between rounds. The article explains this if you keep on reading.

I understand what they wrote, but I think there’s something missing in the discussion.

When it comes to football, by far CB is the least reliant on their teammates, especially in a man-to-man scheme. IMO, that tends to make them easier to evaluate, and it also means that they are more likely to succeed right away because they are really only relying on their own ability.

Sure, a pass rush helps CBs, but it’s not required for them to be elite. However, if you look at basically every other position on either side of the ball, their success is much more determined on scheme fit and surrounding personnel.

Obviously talent plays a big role, but IMO a lot of what that article addresses is that most teams can’t evaluate CB’s outside of the elite guys or they can’t evaluate how that player fits in with their teams system/needs beyond the first or second round.

Point being, I think the rate is different because the position is easier to evaluate when it comes to transitioning from the college-to-pro game because it has fewer variables from NCAA to NFL. I think a team that is confident in it’s coaching staff and it’s scouting department puts very little weight on anything like this.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Regardless of who's available or what the WR room contract situation is, WR is just not a position valued in this team's team building, nor is it used heavily in Stefanski's offense..

Why do you feel this way?

I, personally, have always called wide receivers a hood ornament on the car that is your offense. Offensive line and QB are the engine and driver.

I think that is likely wrong though, because every analytics model I've seen places far more importance on WR's.

If Stefanski is supposed to be in tight-step with these analytic models, and if he came from a system that had Diggs and Thielen, to a situation that has Landry and OBJ, why do you think he doesn't value WR?

But if you want to use OBJ and Landry contracts as a reason to draft a WR, I still don't see it... OBJ is locked up for two more years after this year, at a extremely reasonable rate for a premium WR (his cap hit will be ranked 15th amongst WRs next year) and Landry only has one more year after this year... If the Browns are trying to remain competitive within the next couple years, why would they let go two of their better players? I understand the economic portion of getting similar production out of a WR at a lower rate, but OBJ is already valuable in his current situation, and Landry only has one more year... The Browns WR situation behind them (Hodge, Higgins and DPJ all making near minimum salaries) also allows for a top-heavy room... If anything, I see them as restructure candidates more so than release/trade candidates...

I agree that they're both restructure candidates, but at this point I'm not so certain that the money we're paying OBJ is worth his production.

I'm a defender of Beckham, but if we go by your initial assumption that WR isn't heavily used, then why should we be allocating such a large portion of funds to the position?

If you want to talk contractual situations past 2021 at least OBJ and Landry are under contract... This is who's under contract on the DL and DB side past 2021:
Myles Garrett
Jordan Elliott

Denzel Ward
Troy Hill
Greedy Williams

John Johnson III
Grant Delpit
Sheldrick Redwine

If you're using the contractual commitment side of things, DL needs to be hit hard and hit early and more so than WR...

I agree that both DL and OL should be priorities ahead of WR. That doesn't mean that WR can't be a valuable selection if it's the BPA on your board.

Say the scenario happens where one of OBJ or Landry is let go.. We already saw what the offense would look like should that happen last year... Even without OBJ, the Browns were still one of the more productive offenses in the league and fared just fine with a group of Landry/Higgins/DPJ/Hodge... That doesn't mean that group doesn't need upgraded, it just means it doesn't need upgraded in the 1st or 2nd round...

Or look at our offense against Kansas City. It struggled. We didn't have an alpha receiver that could bust through their coverage.

Higgins has been as productive and as effective of a WR in the whole league when called upon... His contract the last two years is more so indicative of the WR market and the Browns conscientous decisions to not overly invest in Landry and OBJ because of their cap hits and because WR is not a premium analytical position...

If this draft is deep at WR, that's even more of a reason to wait and reap the rewards in the middle rounds when they can afford to take a WR, not early on...

It gives you a boon everywhere. The guys available at 26 wouldn't be available most years. Just because you might be able to get a second round talent in the third doesn't mean that taking a traditionally top-15 talent at 26 is less valuable.

 

[FiveThous]

Regardless of who's available or what the WR room contract situation is, WR is just not a position valued in this team's team building, nor is it used heavily in Stefanski's offense..

But if you want to use OBJ and Landry contracts as a reason to draft a WR, I still don't see it... OBJ is locked up for two more years after this year, at a extremely reasonable rate for a premium WR (his cap hit will be ranked 15th amongst WRs next year) and Landry only has one more year after this year... If the Browns are trying to remain competitive within the next couple years, why would they let go two of their better players? I understand the economic portion of getting similar production out of a WR at a lower rate, but OBJ is already valuable in his current situation, and Landry only has one more year... The Browns WR situation behind them (Hodge, Higgins and DPJ all making near minimum salaries) also allows for a top-heavy room... If anything, I see them as restructure candidates more so than release/trade candidates...

If you want to talk contractual situations past 2021 at least OBJ and Landry are under contract... This is who's under contract on the DL and DB side past 2021:
Myles Garrett
Jordan Elliott

Denzel Ward
Troy Hill
Greedy Williams

John Johnson III
Grant Delpit
Sheldrick Redwine

If you're using the contractual commitment side of things, DL needs to be hit hard and hit early and more so than WR...

Say the scenario happens where one of OBJ or Landry is let go.. We already saw what the offense would look like should that happen last year... Even without OBJ, the Browns were still one of the more productive offenses in the league and fared just fine with a group of Landry/Higgins/DPJ/Hodge... That doesn't mean that group doesn't need upgraded, it just means it doesn't need upgraded in the 1st or 2nd round...

Higgins has been as productive and as effective of a WR in the whole league when called upon... His contract the last two years is more so indicative of the WR market and the Browns conscientous decisions to not overly invest in Landry and OBJ because of their cap hits and because WR is not a premium analytical position...

If this draft is deep at WR, that's even more of a reason to wait and reap the rewards in the middle rounds when they can afford to take a WR, not early on...

By this very logic, would it not make sense to draft a cost controlled WR to move on from OBJ and/or Landry after this season? This would free up the cap to extend folks and/or target the other areas of need.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I don't get too deep into Twitter, but I do have an account for breaking news. When I delve deeper into it, I see fans who want to pick and choose analytic models differently to situations to push reasoning they want to believe, rather than apply the same reasoning to a holistic roster situation.

If you want to want to talk cost control with receivers, you have to look at all the voidable one year contracts on defense as well. The team invested long-term high picks in offense moreso than defense. When the Browns did take some swings with recent high picks on defense, like Delpit and Greedy, they had injury concerns.

Then on offense, the team hit in the draft more than they missed. That's a good thing, not a problem.

But it's important to distinguish this stage of the roster development is different than the "opening moves" of roster construction. Choices the front office made when they were strategically tanking were different than last off-season, right? So now that they are in the mid-game of creating a championship contender, why am I still seeing the positional value chart that mattered when the team barely had any talent at all?

At this point, it's okay to value the holes on the roster that could prevent the team from entering the Super Bowl conversation. It's okay to talk about cost control at every position.

Nothing about this front office's moves lacks in strategy. The roster has a holistic approach for sustainable winning.

Having faith in the front office is such a boring take, but they earned it. If they want defense in the first two rounds, they earned credit. If they just can't turn down a certain receiver value, they earned it. If they want to trade back and gain draft capital... for the first time as a Browns fan... I won't complain.

 

[Vee-Rex]

Perhaps I am wrong but the feeling I have is that OBJ will want more money if he performs well. The only reason he's quiet now is because his numbers don't justify it. At this point, his contract is only "valuable" to us in the sense that he's a 15 million cap hit for what we know can be an elite talent. But that's a pretty enormous cap hit for his actual production. In the event that he gives us a huge year in the way we believe he can, I'm guessing the murmurs of wanting a bigger contract will begin to surface.

So the question is - are we content with ~15m at his current production and will we be content with what would likely be MORE money if he does give us the production we seek (he'd be 29 years old).

I think it's likely that we move on from one of OBJ or Jarvis, or both in the next one or two years. And while I'm very high on DPJ and think he will become a quality WR, I'm not opposed to us using an early pick on a guy we REALLY like. I prefer defense with #26 but I don't want to force it either.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I don't get too deep into Twitter, but I do have an account for breaking news. When I delve deeper into it, I see fans who want to pick and choose analytic models differently to situations to push reasoning they want to believe, rather than apply the same reasoning to a holistic roster situation.

If you want to want to talk cost control with receivers, you have to look at all the voidable one year contracts on defense as well. The team invested long-term high picks in offense moreso than defense. When the Browns did take some swings with recent high picks on defense, like Delpit and Greedy, they had injury concerns.

Then on offense, the team hit in the draft more than they missed. That's a good thing, not a problem.

But it's important to distinguish this stage of the roster development is different than the "opening moves" of roster construction. Choices the front office made when they were strategically tanking were different than last off-season, right? So now that they are in the mid-game of creating a championship contender, why am I still seeing the positional value chart that mattered when the team barely had any talent at all?

At this point, it's okay to value the holes on the roster that could prevent the team from entering the Super Bowl conversation. It's okay to talk about cost control at every position.

Nothing about this front office's moves lacks in strategy. The roster has a holistic approach for sustainable winning.

Having faith in the front office is such a boring take, but they earned it. If they want defense in the first two rounds, they earned credit. If they just can't turn down a certain receiver value, they earned it. If they want to trade back and gain draft capital... for the first time as a Browns fan... I won't complain.

I think people are overstating the hole at linebacker, and understating the needs to bolster CB and DL.

I also don't want to go an entire draft and completely ignore the offensive line. Have to start planning what to do with all three interior line positions in the future, as well as swing tackle.

 

[Jordan]

I think people are overstating the hole at linebacker, and understating the needs to bolster CB and DL.

I also don't want to go an entire draft and completely ignore the offensive line. Have to start planning what to do with all three interior line positions in the future, as well as swing tackle.

Do you think the Browns move on from Teller and/or Tretter? I agree, though, I think offensive line is a position likely to be drafted in the mid-rounds. Super important for this offense.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Do you think the Browns move on from Teller and/or Tretter? I agree, though, I think offensive line is a position likely to be drafted in the mid-rounds. Super important for this offense.

I don't think we will have all three of Bitonio/Tretter/Teller together in 2023.

I'm not sure which specifics we'll keep, and which we'll move on from. I also don't know how Martin will play into the future center position, or our guard depth like Forbes will play into the future at guard.

I also know that, if someone like Dickerson is available in the second round, I don't care about need. I'm taking him because if it's not for his injuries, he's a sure-fire first rounder, the first interior lineman off the board, and likely a top-15 pick who can be excellent at both center and guard.

 

[Marcus]

Do you think the Browns move on from Teller and/or Tretter? I agree, though, I think offensive line is a position likely to be drafted in the mid-rounds. Super important for this offense.

Gotta think Tretter's going to be gone.

Is it weird that with Bill Callahan, I'm not nearly as concerned about losing starters on the line, and that I trust him to groom NFL-caliber starters at each position as time goes on?

I could see the Browns using a Day 3 pick on a developmental lineman, or maybe even a Day 2 pick for someone who can step in as a swing tackle.

At 26, they are positioned beautifully to take BPA. Personally, I really wouldn't be upset if they took a DE or a corner. If Clowney turns out to be a rental, they've got his replacement waiting in the wings, one that will be here for the next several years on a rookie contract. Even this year, it would allow them further rotational flexibility and allow Myles and Clowney to both play fewer snaps, given Garrett's post-COVID concerns and Clowney's knee injury history. I'd love Kwity Paye or Jaelan Phillips on this line, but I don't know that either is going to make it that far. Fingers crossed that a run on QBs and WRs could push some of the stud defenders down.

As for corner, last year showed just how desperately they need depth at that position. Troy Hill was a fantastic signing, but they need more. At this point, I don't even consider Greedy Williams to be a football player, and Ward has yet to play a full season (although he came close last year). They could do worse than drafting a bonafide CB2 with the 26th pick, if there's someone there that they really like.

 

[Ozone]

You're absolutely right. I don't know how my wires got crossed.

Did they both go to the Senior Bowl?

Either way, UNC's Surratt was touted much more highly than Jamin Davis for a while in this process... and I like Davis more than him. I'm just saying, I'm probably higher than the crowd on Jamin and I can say he shouldn't be a first-round pick.

I have Jamin Davis as my top 4-2-5 option at LB in the entire draft based on his speed and size except maybe JOK for his versatility as a Safety hybrid and will be pretty surprised if either is available at 26. If he is and they take another player I hope I am dead wrong about him or it's one of my similarly ranked options.
Should be interesting how the chips fall, but somebody like Davis although not a lot of tape has top 10 pick written all over him if he had more tape.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Jamin Davis isn't without some bad tape on the field. He has an overaggressive reputation, which caused him to be a part-timer up until last season. But as a pure athlete? He's the combine champion this year.

He just might not be as incredible as a rookie as he will be by the end of his career. Buyer beware of the wait involved.

 

[Cement]

 

[Cement]

This wouldn't suck.

Two-round 2021 NFL mock draft: Falcons pull off two trades in top 10, Zaven Collins a surprise pick for Giants

Let's see what it looks like if a team trades back, then up into the top 10

www.cbssports.com

Round 1 - Pick 26

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB
NOTRE DAME • JR • 6'1" / 215 LBS

PROJECTED TEAM​ Cleveland

PROSPECT RNK​ 17th

POSITION RNK​ 2nd

JOK to the Browns' suddenly scary defense would be awesome for one of the most well-rounded teams in the NFL.

59. Browns: Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida