2021 NBA Draft Safari

[TheAdmin]

Giddey will be in the top 15 at the end of the day.

Edit: top 9

 

[I'mWithDan]

Nbadraft.net says it all...

He may very well sneak into the first round, but that seems like a waste of a first round pick.

Lottery is bat shit crazy on him.

I'd take a flier on him as a bench scorer, for a contender.......but this draft is just way too good 1-20 to consider someone like him as a lottery selection IMO. He's an inefficient streaky scorer who doesn't do a whole lot else. At least at this point.

Purple and blue is varying degrees of below median. Likes his 3P volume, relative to his scoring.......but everything else it is really cool on him. He's not a bad prospect by any means.......just that he's a scorer who doesn't have very interesting scoring volume or scoring efficiency.

 

[I'mWithDan]

It's complicated. In college, Zion was not only an outlier scorer and rebounder, he also got a lot of assists and steals for a big man, which pointed strongly towards future perimeter potential. Sengun's similar in that way; he leads all Turkish league centers not only in scoring and offensive rebounding, but also in assists and steals.

Zion is too quick for bigger players, too strong for smaller ones. He presents a matchup problem, where it is a no win situation. I don't really envision Sengun being a guy that is wholly impossible to guard at the NBA level. He just doesn't have that type of unique skillset.

I think Sengun will be a good NBA player but Zion is in another stratosphere analytically. I understand it is pro vs. college but across nearly all dimensions, Zion was the absolutely elite of the elite analytically. Zion, Durant and AD are the only possession era players who had profiles so certain that it would have been impossible to think they wouldn't be stars.

Again, I like Sengun, have trouble figuring out where to slot him.......but even as a great player, at 18, he is not producing across the board, like those truly elite guys do. Where it looks like they really just have no weaknesses. This will probably devolve in to a pro vs. college debate but.....

The thing that is so next level insanity about Zion is.......lets say you want to try to ball park the reduction in competition, if you want to believe there is a very large one. You can apply a penalty in this calculation......so even if Zion takes a 20% reduction, he still is a vastly superior guy......and that is just physical traits and defensive profile aside, where Zion (to me) far and away beats Sengun as well. My opinion would be that Zion would dominate the Turkish league the same way he dominated NCAA but we can shelve that for the sake of a 4 page debate.

This should also be the point in time where I also mention I thought RJ Barrett might be a better prospect then Zion, at the start of the 2019 college season, so what do I know. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Derek]

Lottery is bat shit crazy on him.

I'd take a flier on him as a bench scorer, for a contender.......but this draft is just way too good 1-20 to consider someone like him as a lottery selection IMO. He's an inefficient streaky scorer who doesn't do a whole lot else. At least at this point.

Purple and blue is varying degrees of below median. Likes his 3P volume, relative to his scoring.......but everything else it is really cool on him. He's not a bad prospect by any means.......just that he's a scorer who doesn't have very interesting scoring volume or scoring efficiency.

Yeah, he obviously got hot in the tournament but mostly when I watched UCLA this year, he didn't stand out. When I look at his stat line, I figured his shooting would probably rate out positively, but nothing else beyond that would.

 

[Nathan S]

Zion is too quick for bigger players, too strong for smaller ones. He presents a matchup problem, where it is a no win situation. I don't really envision Sengun being a guy that is wholly impossible to guard at the NBA level. He just doesn't have that type of unique skillset.

I'll preface this by saying that I don't want this to devolve into a real debate about which one of them was/is a better prospect. We could talk in circles and get nowhere. That said, the dynamic you're talking about here is precisely the dynamic that's making Sengun so dominant in Turkey. He clobbers PFs and small-ball C types, and makes traditional C's look like statues.

To take the comparison just one step further, I want to emphasize one more key thing both of them do, which is that they really consistently punish double teams with their passing. That's what puts defenses in a bind and makes them impossible to defend.

I think Sengun will be a good NBA player but Zion is in another stratosphere analytically. I understand it is pro vs. college but across nearly all dimensions, Zion was the absolutely elite of the elite analytically. Zion, Durant and AD are the only possession era players who had profiles so certain that it would have been impossible to think they wouldn't be stars.

It's interesting that you cite that trio, because those are the 3 freshman Wooden Award winners. Overseas, just one other freshman-age prospect has won league MVP against a comparable or stronger level of play, and that's Luka. So we're 4/4 so far with those ultra-dominant 18 year olds becoming superstars. Now along comes Sengun...

Again, I like Sengun, have trouble figuring out where to slot him.......but even as a great player, at 18, he is not producing across the board, like those truly elite guys do. Where it looks like they really just have no weaknesses. This will probably devolve in to a pro vs. college debate but.....

The thing that is so next level insanity about Zion is.......lets say you want to try to ball park the reduction in competition, if you want to believe there is a very large one.

I don't think it's a good use of time to go back-and-forth about specific statistics, though I think some, blocks in particular, are a lot easier to come by in the NCAA than in the pros. My claim, though, is that Sengun and Zion are both outliers when it comes to 18-year-old prospects, and pickings are slim if you want comparison points for outliers like that. Even if you loosen the age restriction to allow 19-year-old prospects, Sengun may be more similar to Zion than to anyone else.

You can apply a penalty in this calculation......so even if Zion takes a 20% reduction, he still is a vastly superior guy......and that is just physical traits and defensive profile aside, where Zion (to me) far and away beats Sengun as well. My opinion would be that Zion would dominate the Turkish league the same way he dominated NCAA but we can shelve that for the sake of a 4 page debate.

This should also be the point in time where I also mention I thought RJ Barrett might be a better prospect then Zion, at the start of the 2019 college season, so what do I know. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

For this, I'm trying to put Zion's NBA success out of my mind and just think about him as a prospect. He wasn't without weaknesses. There were people who thought Ja should go #1. People pointed to Zion's lack of height and shooting ability in particular...hell, people criticized Durant and Luka for perceived physical limitations too. They probably criticized AD for something, though I'm not sure what it was . No prospect, no matter how dominant, is going to be completely beyond criticism. But at some point you have to just not overthink it and draft the guy.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I don't think it's a good use of time to go back-and-forth about specific statistics, though I think some, blocks in particular, are a lot easier to come by in the NCAA than in the pros. My claim, though, is that Sengun and Zion are both outliers when it comes to 18-year-old prospects, and pickings are slim if you want comparison points for outliers like that. Even if you loosen the age restriction to allow 19-year-old prospects, Sengun may be more similar to Zion than to anyone else.

Generally great response to all this.....just wanted to follow up here.

To me, when you look at Sengun's profile and try to ballpark another young big man like him....... he tends to align more with KAT than someone like Zion. Just in terms of how they produce overall impact and where that impact comes from both scoring and non scoring wise. I think they are also both in that more gray area athletically.....where they aren't bad athletes but they are a little awkward.

And KAT, while longer, just hasn't really been an interesting defender at the NBA level. That is my bigger hangup with Sengun.....I suspect he will provide offensive value, from what you have touched on but is he going to be able to guard anyone at the NBA level? When you look at advanced metrics that assess positional value, there are just so few valuable big men who aren't good defenders.

I would worry that Sengun being smaller would most likely slot him as a PF and guarding the 4 at the NBA level is a nightmare, relative to what players spend time there on offense.

 

[Nathan S]

Generally great response to all this.....just wanted to follow up here.

To me, when you look at Sengun's profile and try to ballpark another young big man like him....... he tends to align more with KAT than someone like Zion. Just in terms of how they produce overall impact and where that impact comes from both scoring and non scoring wise. I think they are also both in that more gray area athletically.....where they aren't bad athletes but they are a little awkward.

And KAT, while longer, just hasn't really been an interesting defender at the NBA level. That is my bigger hangup with Sengun.....I suspect he will provide offensive value, from what you have touched on but is he going to be able to guard anyone at the NBA level? When you look at advanced metrics that assess positional value, there are just so few valuable big men who aren't good defenders.

I would worry that Sengun being smaller would most likely slot him as a PF and guarding the 4 at the NBA level is a nightmare, relative to what players spend time there on offense.

Thinking about Sengun's defense, I guess there are a couple considerations:

-In terms of shot blocking, his block percent is sitting at 5.9. That's good enough to lead the Turkish league, and would rank 6th in the NBA this season. Realistically that's gonna regress at least a little...I'd say his floor probably looks something like Daniel Theis, with a block percent of 3.7. But that's still good for top-20 in the NBA, and very solidly average for a starting center.

-Is it important to have a 7-footer at center anymore? With a shorter center you may give up hookshots and lightly-contested midrange shots to opposing bigs, but modern defenses are often okay with giving up those shots. The key consideration when playing a 6'9"-6'10"-ish guy at center is whether he's strong enough to hold his own on the glass and prevent opposing bigs from getting deep post position. I think Sengun checks that box.

-Can Sengun defend perimeter bigs? This is an area of some uncertainty. In his favor, his improved physique has certainly led to improved all-around quickness, and at 6'10" he doesn't have the same high-center-of-gravity issues that give some bigs trouble changing directions of the perimeter. He also gets a lot of steals for a big, which distinguishes him from many "true" centers like Towns and points toward mobility and anticipation skills that may translate to perimeter defense. On the other hand, qualitatively, he doesn't look too comfortable playing perimeter defense. He can make highlight plays that start fast breaks, but more often he loses track of shooters or gets thrown off balance by a crossover. I think between his IQ, physical tools, and youth, there's potential for him to develop into a competent perimeter defender. But he's a project there.

 

[Mcreek]

Who is the better prospect between Scottie Barnes and Jonathon Kuminga? Who fits the Cavz needs better?

 

[adam81king]

Who is the better prospect between Scottie Barnes and Jonathon Kuminga? Who fits the Cavz needs better?

I think Kuminga is a better scorer, while Barnes is better at the rest. *I* think the Cavaliers need an alpha; a guy that you can roll the ball to and have him get a basket when the team is struggling, but I may be I'm the minority there. This team feels similar to the Miami team before Jimmy Butler went there.

 

[MirORich]

I think Kuminga is a better scorer, while Barnes is better at the rest. *I* think the Cavaliers need an alpha; a guy that you can roll the ball to and have him get a basket when the team is struggling, but I may be I'm the minority there. This team feels similar to the Miami team before Jimmy Butler went there.

We may get an alpha with size and skills in this draft, but even if we do, count on it taking at very MINIMUM 2-3 completed years of development and experience for that to show up in a meaningful way where he is leading the team in a clear, obvious, and meaningful way.

 

[adam81king]

We may get an alpha with size and skills in this draft, but even if we do, count on it taking at very MINIMUM 2-3 completed years of development and experience for that to show up in a meaningful way where he is leading the team in a clear, obvious, and meaningful way.

I'm patient enough to wait...

 

[Nathan S]

Just a couple weeks after scoring a career-high 28 points, Prkacin went off for 38 yesterday on 14/20 shooting, including 6/8 from 3. He's peaking at the right time.

 

[foucault87]

How does Sengun look as a rim protector? Can he be the backline anchor to a defense? I view this as the most important role for centers in the modern NBA, being able to deter shots at the rim.

I think Allen sort of does this for us already. In that case, how does Sengun look as a 4? Can he slide with small all 4s like Harrison Barnes and KD? If not, I am not sure he makes a lot of sense for the Cavs when there is comparable talent that fits our core better in this draft.

 

[Nathan S]

How does Sengun look as a rim protector? Can he be the backline anchor to a defense? I view this as the most important role for centers in the modern NBA, being able to deter shots at the rim.

I think Allen sort of does this for us already. In that case, how does Sengun look as a 4? Can he slide with small all 4s like Harrison Barnes and KD? If not, I am not sure he makes a lot of sense for the Cavs when there is comparable talent that fits our core better in this draft.

Edited this post and the below post to add Bitadze and Prkacin.

Here's how his shot blocking compares to some current NBA bigs in their final overseas seasons (per-40 pace adjusted):

Gobert: 3.3
Bitadze: 3.3
Valanciunas: 3.0
Nurkic: 2.7
Capela: 2.7
Theis: 2.5
Zubac: 2.5
Sengun: 2.3
Porzingis: 2.0
Kleber: 2.0
Hernangomez: 1.9
Hartenstein: 1.8
Gasol: 1.5
Jokic: 1.3
Prkacin: 0.9
Saric: 0.6

He's not an outlier, but the guys on this list are generally solid rim protectors with the exception of Saric all the way at the bottom. Jonas is the only guy who really disappointed as a rim protector relative to his production in Europe.

 

[Nathan S]

Here's how his shot blocking compares to some current NBA bigs in their final overseas seasons (per-40 pace adjusted):

Gobert: 3.3
Valanciunas: 3.0
Nurkic: 2.7
Capela: 2.7
Theis: 2.5
Zubac: 2.5
Sengun: 2.3
Porzingis: 2.0
Kleber: 2.0
Hernangomez: 1.9
Hartenstein: 1.8
Gasol: 1.5
Jokic: 1.3
Saric: 0.6

He's not an outlier, but the guys on this list are generally solid rim protectors with the exception of Saric all the way at the bottom. Jonas is the only guy who really disappointed as a rim protector relative to his production in Europe.

I know steals aren't a perfect proxy for perimeter defense, but here are steals per 40 as well:

Hartenstein: 2.8
Nurkic: 2.3
Sengun: 2.0
Porzingis: 1.7
Prkacin: 1.7
Kleber: 1.6
Gasol: 1.5
Theis: 1.5
Jokic: 1.4
Capela: 1.4
Gobert: 1.3
Hernangomez: 1.3
Zubac: 1.2
Saric: 1.2
Valanciunas: 0.9
Bitadze: 0.9

Nurkic surprised me, though now that I look he's actually getting quite a few steals in the NBA too. Hartenstein also surprised me, but I guess he is a pretty active defender. Both Nurkic and Hartenstein averaged a ridiculous 8 fouls per 40 in Europe, compared to a more reasonable 4.5 for Sengun.