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2021 NBA Draft Safari
- Thread starter adam81king
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I haven't paid as close attention to the collegiate season as I usually would but outside of the top-5, I'm not really seeing too many guys to get excited about especially when considering what the Cavs need moving forward...
It looks like they might be in the range to snag a bench shooter or backup ball-handler but I'm not sure there's a guy who really represents a really good fit/value for where the Cavs are likely to be drafting, and what they're likely to need...
It looks like they might be in the range to snag a bench shooter or backup ball-handler but I'm not sure there's a guy who really represents a really good fit/value for where the Cavs are likely to be drafting, and what they're likely to need...
adam81king
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Ziaire Williams, Scottie Barnes and Franz Wagner are just 3 guys that should fit well.
cabs
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Sounds like our kind of prospect
Updated draft ratings...wings continue to lead the way
This comparison may surprise some people (per-100 stats)
Okongwu: 30.2 points (.62/.25/.72 shooting), 16.1 boards, 2.0 assists, 2.3 steals, 5.1 blocks, 3.7 turnovers, 5.0 fouls
Mobley: 28.9 points (.58/.30/.72 shooting), 15.5 boards, 3.3 assists, 1.5 steals, 5.0 blocks, 4.1 turnovers, 2.7 fouls
Mobley and Okongwu put up very similar scoring numbers, with Okongwu just ahead in steals, Mobley with fewer fouls and a bit better in the assist:TO area. It's interesting that, while Okongwu was seen as quite raw with a questionable offensive ceiling, Mobley is almost universally considered a top-3 prospect with a very high offensive ceiling.
This comparison may surprise some people (per-100 stats)
Okongwu: 30.2 points (.62/.25/.72 shooting), 16.1 boards, 2.0 assists, 2.3 steals, 5.1 blocks, 3.7 turnovers, 5.0 fouls
Mobley: 28.9 points (.58/.30/.72 shooting), 15.5 boards, 3.3 assists, 1.5 steals, 5.0 blocks, 4.1 turnovers, 2.7 fouls
Mobley and Okongwu put up very similar scoring numbers, with Okongwu just ahead in steals, Mobley with fewer fouls and a bit better in the assist:TO area. It's interesting that, while Okongwu was seen as quite raw with a questionable offensive ceiling, Mobley is almost universally considered a top-3 prospect with a very high offensive ceiling.
Part of it is where they're getting their points from. Okongwu was mostly offensive rebound put backs and transition. That TT-style rim-running big usually projects as just a good role player in the NBA.
Mobley is out on the perimeter more and creating, which is more exciting for a 7-footer. Plus, the difference in assist rate is one of the bigger selling points for people to believe that you can run an offense through Mobley ala Bam or Sabonis that you can't really do with Okongwu.
EDIT: Also, interesting to see Barnes dominate your metrics. He seems like the perfect guy that passes the eye test and analytics, and would also fill a huge need on the Cavs roster and someone that seems like a perfect cultural fit. I saw ESPN dropped him down to 13 in their latest mock, so he could potentially be available if we end up in the late lotto.
Mobley is a tough evaluation for me because he falls in that in-between place offensively. He doesn't dominate the offensive glass and crush the rim with the frequency of some center prospects like Okongwu. But he's also not an outlier shooter or an outlier passer...he's maybe a bit above average in those areas, but nothing super unusual. He does fare better than Okongwu on my draft rater (about 1.5 better offensively, 0.5 worse defensively), but still doesn't grade out as an obvious superstar talent.
And yeah, Barnes is doing quite well; for now he looks like the rare prospect who can do it all offensively at 6'8". The key for him will be to keep the 3-pointers falling. It's not hard to imagine that he could go 1/9 from 3 or something like that for the rest of the season and then that'd be a huge question mark going into the draft.
adam81king
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Your rater doesn't like Ziaire...at all...
Derek
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more turnovers than assists
36.7% from the field
32.1% from behind the arc
I'm honestly surprised his draft rater churned out an actual number instead of just the shit emoji
LackOfSkill
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I see you have it listed there as its own column, but is SOS an actual component of your Offensive and Defensive ratings? And do you have a sense for how much impact it has, if so?
Moses Moody 5th is what piqued my interest, since he's really struggled vs better competition yet still has great numbers on the year.
I'm just thinking out loud, but I wonder if you're able to quantify a player's performance relative to the opposing level of competition on a game-by-game basis, rather than his season averages as a whole compared to the full season SOS. I'd think that by using the full season averages vs full season SOS, it wouldn't be able to identify when a decline in the player's play is more steep than the change in competition level. I'm pretty clueless when it comes to models, but I'm sure doing the former is much more challenging.
So BartTorvik has him as shooting just 38.6% from 2PT in the 6 games considered "Top 50 quality". Despite this, he's still at 51.1% from 2PT on the year. I think using season long averages relative to a full season SOS may not provide the full context of when he is struggling. Sure he would be hurt by a weak SOS overall, but I think the effects would be stronger and more representative when looked at at a game by game basis.
https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2021&p=Moses Moody&t=Arkansas
Good question; SOS doesn't factor in, which is why I include it for context. Definitely think it's an interesting idea to potentially weight games based on level of competition, but it'd be more work than I'm able to put it.
I'mWithDan
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What exactly do the Cavs do with team building relative to Okoro?
That is my one big struggle as I try to look at roster fits for this team.
Okoro has to improve immensely just to be an average offensive player, which would lead me to believe they need a 3 who is a pure scorer. This draft doesn’t seem to have that type of guy.
And the bigs look a little underwhelming to me. My stuff increasingly likes Barnes but even if we have a chance to draft him, I struggle to envision how all these pieces go together in any way that makes sense.
That is my one big struggle as I try to look at roster fits for this team.
Okoro has to improve immensely just to be an average offensive player, which would lead me to believe they need a 3 who is a pure scorer. This draft doesn’t seem to have that type of guy.
And the bigs look a little underwhelming to me. My stuff increasingly likes Barnes but even if we have a chance to draft him, I struggle to envision how all these pieces go together in any way that makes sense.
Ran my draft rater on ESPN's top international guys, and well, Sengun (now up to #14 on ESPN's mock) looks very good. Prkacin, Garuba, and Giddey not exceptional, but certainly draftable, and Jokubaitis probably is too considering the tough schedule he's played (all SOS values are my estimates).
As a comparison point, consider the Turkish league stats this year for 18-year-old Sengun vs. Thomas Robinson, who was basically a replacement-level rebounding specialist big in his 5-year NBA career (per-40 stats):
Sengun: 27.8 points (71% true shooting), 14.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.9 steals, 2.8 blocks, 3.3 turnovers, 4.6 fouls
Robinson: 18.1 points (57% true shooting), 13.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, 4.6 turnovers, 5.5 fouls
Sengun goes toe-to-toe with Robinson on the glass, which itself is impressive, and completely blows him out of the water in every other statistical area. I should watch more film of him, but at this point I tend to think he's "for real" and should be considered a potential pick anywhere in the lottery.
As a comparison point, consider the Turkish league stats this year for 18-year-old Sengun vs. Thomas Robinson, who was basically a replacement-level rebounding specialist big in his 5-year NBA career (per-40 stats):
Sengun: 27.8 points (71% true shooting), 14.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.9 steals, 2.8 blocks, 3.3 turnovers, 4.6 fouls
Robinson: 18.1 points (57% true shooting), 13.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, 4.6 turnovers, 5.5 fouls
Sengun goes toe-to-toe with Robinson on the glass, which itself is impressive, and completely blows him out of the water in every other statistical area. I should watch more film of him, but at this point I tend to think he's "for real" and should be considered a potential pick anywhere in the lottery.
Also added a few more guys who appeared in the ESPN top-60: Isaiah Livers, Carlik Jones, Jay Huff, and John Petty. Huff is the only one with a decent projection, coming in at -2.0 offense, +1.2 defense. Seems like he could contribute right away as a floor-spacing bench big, and could be an interesting fit with Allen.