There's a lot to talk about here. I guess, first off, let's talk about his frame, because his improvement there has been a big key to his breakout season.
I'm linking this video not to suggest that he's going to be shooting 1-legged stepback 3's, but because it's an unobstructed view of his frame and how he moves. You can see that he has a strong lower body, but he's not carrying much extra weight around his midsection at all. He's not the most physically massive center in the Turkish league, not even close. You mention Tristan, and it occurs to me that Sengun's body and athleticism are pretty similar to Tristan's at the same age. Not unusually big or bulky, but very strong in the lower body, with that all-important motor and willingness to seek out contact.
In this highlight, which I posted earlier, you can see that he's not actually any bulkier than Grant Jerrett who's lined up next to him:
Jerrett is well aware of Sengun's offensive rebounding ability, and tries to stay in a low stance and use his bulk to hold him off:
As the ball comes off the rim, Jerrett still appears to have decent position:
But Sengun is much quicker off the ground, and that makes the difference:
Here it is all together:
This is very reminiscent of a play a young Tristan would make. He's not necessarily physically larger than his opponent...often he may be a little smaller. But he knows where he needs to be, he has the strong lower body to get himself there, and he has the timing and quick-twitch athleticism to get to the ball before anyone else.
The other factor at play here is his skill development. What's really telling is that you can't compare him to most other prospects at the same age, because most other prospects didn't have any kind of professional or collegiate track record at age 18. For example, if Sengun could ignore eligibility issues and play NCAA ball
next year in the 2021-22 season, he'd still be a younger freshman than Lauri was.
Those who were playing were typically playing small roles. Here's how their averages looked:
Porzingis - 6.9 points, 2.8 boards, 0.3 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.9 blocks per game
Valanciunas - 7.7 points, 5.8 boards, 0.2 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.7 blocks per game
Jokic - 11.3 points, 6.3 boards, 2.5 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks per game
Nurkic - 5.3 points, 2.8 boards, 0.4 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.6 blocks per game
Saric - 11.5 points, 7.3 boards, 2.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks per game
Compared to Sengun
Sengun - 19.7 points, 9.2 boards, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.6 blocks per game
The difference is so large that I couldn't believe it at first. My first thought was, the Turkish League must be a joke these days for an 18-year-old to come in and dominate like this. More so, not an 18-year-old who's a 7'0" 270 pound behemoth like Nurkic, or a 7'3" freak like Porzingis, but just a fairly ordinary-looking 6'10" 240 pound big. Level of competition is certainly a factor in these comparisons; Saric, for instance, had his numbers inflated a bit playing against very weak Croatian League competition, while Valanciunas had a tougher task against top-shelf Euroleague competition.
But as I looked into it more, I saw that the Turkish League hasn't actually declined at all. Two days ago, Efes stomped Real Madrid 90-63 in the Euroleague playoffs. Even the absolute worst Turkish League teams are riddled with guys who were elite NCAA players and have NBA connections. This is a strong league with a lot of talented players, and Sengun is marmalizing them almost every single game. That reality is completely inconsistent with the mainstream characterization of him as this raw 18-year-old who's nothing special physically. The player scouting reports describe should have a hard time getting off the bench in such a strong professional league, let alone winning MVP. But instead you have a player who's scoring more than Wiltjer, rebounding more than Thomas Robinson, and getting more steals+blocks than Vesely, all at the age of 18.
The only way to explain all this is that Sengun is an elite talent, and he's hiding in plain sight. This is in contrast to the case of Pokusevski last year, for instance. He was playing weak competition and had some serious flaws that prevented him from dominating, but had an interesting mix of statistical factors that got me thinking about his long-term NBA potential. Sengun's case is much, much more straight forward...there's nothing subtle about it, no intricate projecting to do. He's playing strong competition and he's dominating that competition right now. If Josiah-Jordan James or Miles McBride develops into a NBA star I deserve a pat on the back, but identifying Sengun as an elite prospect took embarrassingly little skill on my part. As was the case with Doncic, it's just recognizing what's already (painfully) obvious to the professional teams tasked with trying to slow Sengun down.