2023 Cleveland Guardians Season Thread

[CDAV45]

They didn't trade him since they felt he was worth more keeping than trading... That says his trade value right there...

You know this how? I think a big factor in Amed still being with this team is our AS 3B pining for his sorry ass. It kinda pisses me of to consider it, but he was advocating extending Amed last year.

 

[CDAV45]

I dont understand why so many on here keep making excuses for the FO stunning failure to improve this team, esp when it has so many resources to do so.

'We tried' doesn't cut it. Trying without succeeding is failure.

The FO should be held to the same standard as the players.

Zimmer tried. Bradley tried. Plesac tries.

Some on this board complain that Dolan doesn't spend money that he doesn't have, but seem perfectly fine when the FO refuses to spend assets it does have...and then shrug when those assets turn to dust a year later.

Our FO is well known to be the most difficult to deal with in MLB. Thats not a badge of honor.

How many times do I have to tell you before it sinks in. They are not on the same timeline as you and they were never going all in for this season. The sooner you accept that fact the sooner you can get on with your healing.

The only failures are keeping Amed and starting Straw. Zunino was the last option after missing out on Murphy and Bell was supposed to fill a need. Unfortunately he is a shell of his former self.

Are they the most difficult to deal with or the most difficult to take advantage of? There's going to be some trades and probably a release or 2 and I look forward to seeing what some of these kids can do because those are the ones that will be on our next contender. Not doing so to start the season was ignorant IMO and pretty much kicking the can down the road.

 

[CDAV45]

The importance of relievers is underrated. We'd be doing significantly better if ours were equally nasty to last year. So many games have been lost due to the failures of the pen.

Not nearly as many that has been lost to the failures of the lineup.

It will be interesting to see what happens in/with the BP going forward. Does it correct itself or is this one of those "funny" years where unpredictability comes in to play?

 

[Huber.]

How many times do I have to tell you before it sinks in. They are not on the same timeline as you and they were never going all in for this season. The sooner you accept that fact the sooner you can get on with your healing.

The only failures are keeping Amed and starting Straw. Zunino was the last option after missing out on Murphy and Bell was supposed to fill a need. Unfortunately he is a shell of his former self.

Are they the most difficult to deal with or the most difficult to take advantage of? There's going to be some trades and probably a release or 2 and I look forward to seeing what some of these kids can do because those are the ones that will be on our next contender. Not doing so to start the season was ignorant IMO and pretty much kicking the can down the road.

When are they going #allin according to your timeline?

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

When are they going #allin according to your timeline?

I don't think this organization ever goes "all in." A tiny bump in the odds of winning this year isn't worth gutting your ability to win next year and down the road.

I think the organization works in contention windows, where they try and consolidate talent around a multi-year period. I think our next contention window starts next year but really hits its stride in 2025. It will be headlined by our top prospects being sorted out. Arias, Rocchio, Valera, Naylor, Gavin, Bibee, Espino, Cantillo... there are a lot of names that are ready or close to it that we need to sort out.

 

[CDAV45]

When are they going #allin according to your timeline?

2025 and that's not my timeline.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

It's getting to the point where I'm no longer reading posts; I'm scanning them for the words "Amed" or "Rosario". If I see either of those words I skip forward to the next post.

If anybody else is doing that they will have already moved on from this one.

Of the six division leaders at the one-third point in the season, the Guardians have played just one - the Twins, who are 27-26. Of the six second place teams the Guardians have played two; the Tigers (25-26) and the Marlins (28-26). IOW, the schedule has been a cakewalk so far and is going to get a lot tougher.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I think our next contention window starts next year but really hits its stride in 2025. It will be headlined by our top prospects being sorted out. Arias, Rocchio, Valera, Naylor, Gavin, Bibee, Espino, Cantillo... there are a lot of names that are ready or close to it that we need to sort out.

Agree with this. Plesac has been moved down and I expect Bieber to be traded. Civale and Quantrill will also be traded or moved to the bullpen. By 2025 the rotation will probably be McKenzie, Williams, Bibee, Cantillo, and Espino or Allen.

Josh Bell, Rosario, Zunino, and Brennan will have moved on. Straw will be the fourth outfielder. Bo Naylor will be in his second season as the every day catcher. Rocchio will probably be the shortstop and Arias may be in right field. We need a center fielder who can hit - hopefully obtained in the Bieber deal. Or do it indirectly by trading Bieber for prospects, then packaging prospects for a center fielder. Valera may earn a corner outfield spot moving Kwan to center.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Here's the guy we missed the boat on.

Harrison Bader’s Defense Is Generationally Good

The Yankees center fielder makes 5-star plays look routine on a nightly basis.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Harrison Bader is the best defensive centerfielder in the game. This year he's hitting .250/.780. He's destroying lefties to the tune of .412/1.650. Against righties he's hitting just .211/.568, but Straw is hitting just .214/.604 off them.

Bader, 28, is averaging a home run every 14.7 at-bats this year. He hit three of them in four games against the Guardians in the playoffs last year after the Yankees traded for him in August. We need power in the worst way, not to mention guys who can hit lefties. We could get a lot more power while not losing defense. In fact, Bader grades higher than Straw defensively.

The Yankees are 32-23 despite a huge problem with starting pitching. They have Gerrit Cole and not much else. They are 10-2 when Cole starts and 22-21 when he doesn't. Nestor Cortes has a 5.30 ERA. Clarke Schmidt and Jhony Brito are both at 5.58 in 11 and 9 starts.

Give them Shane Bieber and they could end up with the third seed behind Tampa and Texas, or maybe better. And being able to start Cole and Bieber four times in a seven game series would give them the chance to beat anybody.

I wouldn't mind us trading Bieber and Straw to the Yankees for Bader and a package of prospects. Their #3 and #4 ranked prospects are both center fielders. One of them would be a good start. I could see Bader as a guy who starts against lefties and comes in as a defensive replacement or pinch hitter when he isn't starting. Maybe a Valera/Bader platoon in center?

 

[macbdog]

Here's the guy we missed the boat on.

Harrison Bader’s Defense Is Generationally Good

The Yankees center fielder makes 5-star plays look routine on a nightly basis.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Harrison Bader is the best defensive centerfielder in the game. This year he's hitting .250/.780. He's destroying lefties to the tune of .412/1.650. Against righties he's hitting just .211/.568, but Straw is hitting just .214/.604 off them.

Bader, 28, is averaging a home run every 14.7 at-bats this year. He hit three of them in four games against the Guardians in the playoffs last year after the Yankees traded for him in August. We need power in the worst way, not to mention guys who can hit lefties.

The Yankees are 32-23 despite a huge problem with starting pitching. They have Gerrit Cole and not much else. They are 10-2 when Cole starts and 22-21 when he doesn't. Nestor Cortes has a 5.30 ERA. Clarke Schmidt and Jhony Brito are both at 5.58 in 11 and 9 starts.

Give them Shane Bieber and they could end up with the third seed behind Tampa and Texas, or maybe better. And being able to start Cole and Bieber four times in a seven game series would give them the chance to beat anybody.

I wouldn't mind us trading Bieber and Straw to the Yankees for Bader and a package of prospects. Their #3 and #4 ranked prospects are both center fielders. One of them would be a good start. I could see Bader as a guy who starts against lefties and comes in as a defensive replacement or pinch hitter when he isn't starting. Maybe a Valera/Bader platoon in center?

This can't be true. Straw is a generational CFer, and you can't ha e two generational CFers in the league at one time. Their numbers must be doctored.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Here's the guy we missed the boat on.

Harrison Bader’s Defense Is Generationally Good

The Yankees center fielder makes 5-star plays look routine on a nightly basis.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Harrison Bader is the best defensive centerfielder in the game. This year he's hitting .250/.780. He's destroying lefties to the tune of .412/1.650. Against righties he's hitting just .211/.568, but Straw is hitting just .214/.604 off them.

Bader, 28, is averaging a home run every 14.7 at-bats this year. He hit three of them in four games against the Guardians in the playoffs last year after the Yankees traded for him in August. We need power in the worst way, not to mention guys who can hit lefties. We could get a lot more power while not losing defense. In fact, Bader grades higher than Straw defensively.

The Yankees are 32-23 despite a huge problem with starting pitching. They have Gerrit Cole and not much else. They are 10-2 when Cole starts and 22-21 when he doesn't. Nestor Cortes has a 5.30 ERA. Clarke Schmidt and Jhony Brito are both at 5.58 in 11 and 9 starts.

Give them Shane Bieber and they could end up with the third seed behind Tampa and Texas, or maybe better. And being able to start Cole and Bieber four times in a seven game series would give them the chance to beat anybody.

I wouldn't mind us trading Bieber and Straw to the Yankees for Bader and a package of prospects. Their #3 and #4 ranked prospects are both center fielders. One of them would be a good start. I could see Bader as a guy who starts against lefties and comes in as a defensive replacement or pinch hitter when he isn't starting. Maybe a Valera/Bader platoon in center?

Yeah, but Harrison Bader is so douchey and has such a punchable face... I'm happy not having him on our team. He belongs on the Yankees.

 

[CATS44]

We keep talking about our supposed 'real' window of contention, and moving it back.

Last year we were supposedly ahead by a year, and this was the first 'real' year. Now we are talking about 2025. It never ends.

*******

Last year 17 Guardians made their MLB debuts. The year before it was ten. We are at six and counting this year. Thirty three rookies in 2.33 seasons. That never ends, either.

I will ask this forum the same question I've asked both of the last two seasons...

Exactly when do you want to see the FO make a major move(s) to try to be a 'real' contender?

******

When an org has sixteen good looking young MIFs...as it did last year...it isnt trading the future away to trade a few of them to upgrade the team. When an org has nearly 20 solid SP prospects behind a very good MLB rotation, it isn't trading away its future to trade a few of them to upgrade the team. When an org has more young LH corner outfield bats than it can ever possibly use, it isnt trading the future away to trade a few of them to upgrade the team. And it certainly isn't helping the future by eventually having to give them away for virtually nothing.

********

On another note....

A lot of fans want our players to do 'something' different. They want Valaika and the hitting coaches to have them do something different...anything different. In most cases, I dont agree. Most of our batters are hitting in extremely bad luck.

You can go thru all the metrics you want, but in the end, this is what is happening to most of our batters in terms of results vs expected results....

Kwans expected BA is 26 points higher. His expected SLG is 12 points higher. His expected overall production (xwOBA) is 18 points higher.

Jose...+22...+30...+30.

Amed....+22...+37...+26.

Naylor....+55...+101...+66

Thats generally the first four guys in our lineup. Imagine what the offense would look like if the results equalled their effort.

Straw is producing fairly similar to his effort, only down a bit...+7...+5...+6.

The two that are woeful are Gimenez and Bell.

Gimenez statcast numbers are worse across the board, and we are seeing production that shows it....-5...-30...-11.

Bells lack of production is due almost exclusively to hitting the ball into the ground. His LA is less than half of his career number, and his GB% is an astronomical 58.8%. Everything else is on his career numbers. Nevertheless, his production has not matched his effort.
+39...+66...+42.

Over a 162 game season, production *should* even out. I know its not a lot of consolation...lol.

A little Wee Willy Keeler would surely help.

******

Speculation that Bell will be gone any time soon is unfounded. Unless there is a vast change soon, he would be an idiot to option out of his contract.

 

[sportscoach]

We keep talking about our supposed 'real' window of contention, and moving it back.

Last year we were supposedly ahead by a year, and this was the first 'real' year. Now we are talking about 2025. It never ends.

*******

Last year 17 Guardians made their MLB debuts. The year before it was ten. We are at six and counting this year. Thirty three rookies in 2.33 seasons. That never ends, either.

I will ask this forum the same question I've asked both of the last two seasons...

Exactly when do you want to see the FO make a major move(s) to try to be a 'real' contender?

******

When an org has sixteen good looking young MIFs...as it did last year...it isnt trading the future away to trade a few of them to upgrade the team. When an org has nearly 20 solid SP prospects behind a very good MLB rotation, it isn't trading away its future to trade a few of them to upgrade the team. When an org has more young LH corner outfield bats than it can ever possibly use, it isnt trading the future away to trade a few of them to upgrade the team. And it certainly isn't helping the future by eventually having to give them away for virtually nothing.

********

On another note....

A lot of fans want our players to do 'something' different. They want Valaika and the hitting coaches to have them do something different...anything different. In most cases, I dont agree. Most of our batters are hitting in extremely bad luck.

You can go thru all the metrics you want, but in the end, this is what is happening to most of our batters in terms of results vs expected results....

Kwans expected BA is 26 points higher. His expected SLG is 12 points higher. His expected overall production (xwOBA) is 18 points higher.

Jose...+22...+30...+30.

Amed....+22...+37...+26.

Naylor....+55...+101...+66

Thats generally the first four guys in our lineup. Imagine what the offense would look like if the results equalled their effort.

Straw is producing fairly similar to his effort, only down a bit...+7...+5...+6.

The two that are woeful are Gimenez and Bell.

Gimenez statcast numbers are worse across the board, and we are seeing production that shows it....-5...-30...-11.

Bells lack of production is due almost exclusively to hitting the ball into the ground. His LA is less than half of his career number, and his GB% is an astronomical 58.8%. Everything else is on his career numbers. Nevertheless, his production has not matched his effort.
+39...+66...+42.

Over a 162 game season, production *should* even out. I know its not a lot of consolation...lol.

A little Wee Willy Keeler would surely help.

******

Speculation that Bell will be gone any time soon is unfounded. Unless there is a vast change soon, he would be an idiot to option out of his contract.

Cats, no offense meant, but I feel like at times, you don't really listen to what everyone says...

Some like me, feel like the window is now while others don't believe it's until 25...

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I jumped the gun on Bader. Turns out he will be a free agent at the end of this season. I'd like to see us make a run at him. The Athletic ranks him 16th among potential free agents this off-season. Ohtani is first.

The Yankees finally found their answer in center field in Harrison Bader, but free agency beckons for him after this season. He’s a plus defender in center field with above-average range to all sides. In fact, he won a Gold Glove Award in 2021 with the Cardinals. He’s an above-average base runner. His uniform is usually dirty by the national anthem. He plays hard and brings so much energy to the ballpark that he’s already become a fan favorite. A Bronxville, N.Y., native, Bader loves being a Yankee, and it would be a surprise if the two sides weren’t able to agree to a contract once he reaches free agency. So far this season, he’s batting .274 with a 124 OPS+. He’s never been a high on-base percentage player, but he makes up for it with his intangibles.

Fangraphs has him as the best center fielder in baseball this year plus he brings power and he destroys lefties. However, it's quite probable he resigns with the Yankees because they don't have any decent outfielders at the moment other than Judge.

 

[petes999]

I jumped the gun on Bader. Turns out he will be a free agent at the end of this season. I'd like to see us make a run at him. The Athletic ranks him 16th among potential free agents this off-season. Ohtani is first.

The Yankees finally found their answer in center field in Harrison Bader, but free agency beckons for him after this season. He’s a plus defender in center field with above-average range to all sides. In fact, he won a Gold Glove Award in 2021 with the Cardinals. He’s an above-average base runner. His uniform is usually dirty by the national anthem. He plays hard and brings so much energy to the ballpark that he’s already become a fan favorite. A Bronxville, N.Y., native, Bader loves being a Yankee, and it would be a surprise if the two sides weren’t able to agree to a contract once he reaches free agency. So far this season, he’s batting .274 with a 124 OPS+. He’s never been a high on-base percentage player, but he makes up for it with his intangibles.

Fangraphs has him as the best center fielder in baseball this year plus he brings power and he destroys lefties. However, it's quite probable he resigns with the Yankees because they don't have any decent outfielders at the moment other than Judge.

I was just about to hit post on why trade Bieber for a pending FA, just as you posted. Good catch. Yet, he is also having a career year due to growing up a Yankee fan. He only had a FG War above 1.8 in 2018 and 2021. So has been a bit up and down, but admit higher up and down years than Straw. I assume he will resign with NYY though.

From Bader ...
"I absolutely love it here," Bader recently told Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media for NJ.com. "Are you kidding me? It’s a blessing every day. It’s an iconic jersey. It’s so much bigger than me. It’s amazing."

Bader went on to say he loves playing for the Yankees so much that he'd "do this s--- for free."