2023 Guardians Spring Training Thread

[sportscoach]

Of course Outman gets a double...

 

[Mott the Hoople]

There have been many statistical studies done on players changing leagues over the last 15+ years as stat keeping has evolved.

All of them tend to show the same thing. An ~20-25 point change in OPS in year 1 of being a new league, slight increase in strikeout rate, slight decrease in BB rates.

At the same time, quite a few show 2nd half improvements more in line with career averages, although an increase in K rate tends to be something that sticks for a majority of players in year 1 playing in a new league.

It's not easy to spend your entire career in one league and then have the same success in the other year 1. And over the last 15ish years the jump from the NL to AL has been significantly harder to make than the jump from AL to NL.

For a recent example, and since you guys love talking about him here, Amed Rosario's 1st half of 2021 (.673) vs his 2nd half of 2021 (.796) and his subsequent .715 season in 2022, as well as his 20.7% K rate 1st half of 2021 vs his 17.6% K rate in his ~1000 PAs since.

So w/r to Bell. Patience.

It's tough to have patience for a guy that is probably only here for this season. But even as Bell makes adjustments, he's got to be a helluva lot better than Franmil and Ernie.

 

[CDAV45]

Amed won't really get all-Star votes outside of the Cleveland (and maybe a couple Mets fans who liked him)

There's about 3 Cleveland fans that like him to that extent and they all 3 post here.

 

[sportscoach]

There's about 3 Cleveland fans that like him to that extent and they all 3 post here.

Naw, you have fans that always just vote straight for their teams...

 

[petes999]

Rosario may not even get enough votes to even finish last of all the other AL Central SS's. He is battling Baez for last place (and with their pop/attendance may get more straight line votes) in the Central behind Correra, Witt, Anderson .... But damn it ... he is our All-Star SS by a mile???

Sorry, shouldn't spread hate or argue with other posters, no matter what they are smoking, but please pass it over here. If we want to compete, we shouldn't be satisfied with an average position because that will always be the catcher with their defensive focus. Not saying Arias or Freeman would be the difference but Rocchio maybe and thus why FO maybe waiting a year and only upgrading C (somewhat) and 1B/DH for now -- avoiding going all in for now.

 

[PPark]

An odd thought on the 13th position player, where would a Manny Mota—PH extraordinaire—fit in the DH era?

If you view your catchers as interchangeable defensively then you’ve got 162 possible PA available for a pinch hitter. Now you wouldn’t want to burn Arias or Brennan solely in that fashion, but how about the player continuously praised by the staff for his game prep? Palacios is tailor made for that kind of role.

Just to piss off CDavis ( I’m kidding), footwork is Amed’s defensive nemesis. Counter intuitive, I know. I anticipate continued defensive progress and noting Val’s work emphasis for our hitters this year a 20/20 walk year from Amed.

 

[sportscoach]

Rosario may not even get enough votes to even finish last of all the other AL Central SS's. He is battling Baez for last place (and with their pop/attendance may get more straight line votes) in the Central behind Correra, Witt, Anderson .... But damn it ... he is our All-Star SS by a mile???

Sorry, shouldn't spread hate or argue with other posters, no matter what they are smoking, but please pass it over here. If we want to compete, we shouldn't be satisfied with an average position because that will always be the catcher with their defensive focus. Not saying Arias or Freeman would be the difference but Rocchio maybe and thus why FO maybe waiting a year and only upgrading C (somewhat) and 1B/DH for now -- avoiding going all in for now.

I feel like the intangibles is a huge reason why we are keeping Rosario...

Before we signed anyone we had two position players with greater than 4 years of MLB experience... JRam and Rosario... We had two more with 3... Straw and Naylor... Everyone else on the position side has two or less... We added Zunino and Bell, but with what JRam said last season about Rosario and them not getting a good enough offer in a trade. They felt he was more important to keep than to get rid of.

I have a hunch they will keep looking to make moves and keep upgrading. I just think the next move will be made more towards the trade deadline. They have to see what they really need before they make a big move...

 

[sportscoach]

An odd thought on the 13th position player, where would a Manny Mota—PH extraordinaire—fit in the DH era?

If you view your catchers as interchangeable defensively then you’ve got 162 possible PA available for a pinch hitter. Now you wouldn’t want to burn Arias or Brennan solely in that fashion, but how about the player continuously praised by the staff for his game prep? Palacios is tailor made for that kind of role.

Just to piss off CDavis ( I’m kidding), footwork is Amed’s defensive nemesis. Counter intuitive, I know. I anticipate continued defensive progress and noting Val’s work emphasis for our hitters this year a 20/20 walk year from Amed.

I actually think the last spot will be a rotation in a sense... Since we have so few ABs, we will see a mix of players at the end of the bench based off of who we may be facing and/or who is banged up.

Aka let's say we know we will have a stretch on paper with a bunch of lefty starters on paper, we will possibly see Freeman as the bench guy. After that stretch, we may switch to Palacios or if someone gets a ding/out a few days, we will being up someone who can help cover that position.

Also I am curious if we don't make a swap as well... I wonder if we could trade a prospect/player for a to fill the bench role. Like a Palacios for a IKF in a sense... Maybe not IFK, but someone who has positional flexibility defensively but a better bat than what Clement had for us.

 

[sportscoach]

I am wondering...

Will we make a move for a LHRP whose actually pretty good while trading depth (Aka Tena)? I don't know, I feel like with Hentges going down and us possibly more than one 40 man opening needed, we could see a swap in my mind...

 

[CDAV45]

I am wondering...

Will we make a move for a LHRP whose actually pretty good while trading depth (Aka Tena)? I don't know, I feel like with Hentges going down and us possibly more than one 40 man opening needed, we could see a swap in my mind...

Sure we will. We'll be duping ATL to send us Lee for Rosario since CATS said that Arcia is no Rosario even though most teams would probably prefer Arcia due to having some defensive versatility.

 

[CDAV45]

An odd thought on the 13th position player, where would a Manny Mota—PH extraordinaire—fit in the DH era?

If you view your catchers as interchangeable defensively then you’ve got 162 possible PA available for a pinch hitter. Now you wouldn’t want to burn Arias or Brennan solely in that fashion, but how about the player continuously praised by the staff for his game prep? Palacios is tailor made for that kind of role.

Just to piss off CDavis ( I’m kidding), footwork is Amed’s defensive nemesis. Counter intuitive, I know. I anticipate continued defensive progress and noting Val’s work emphasis for our hitters this year a 20/20 walk year from Amed.

You speak way too much truth to piss me off my friend, but thanks for thinking of me.

Amed's ability to transfer the ball from glove to hand is lacking as well.

 

[petes999]

I feel like the intangibles is a huge reason why we are keeping Rosario...

Before we signed anyone we had two position players with greater than 4 years of MLB experience... JRam and Rosario... We had two more with 3... Straw and Naylor... Everyone else on the position side has two or less... We added Zunino and Bell, but with what JRam said last season about Rosario and them not getting a good enough offer in a trade. They felt he was more important to keep than to get rid of.

I have a hunch they will keep looking to make moves and keep upgrading. I just think the next move will be made more towards the trade deadline. They have to see what they really need before they make a big move...

Sorry, keep on hearing your argument on Rosario being a team leader and was contemplating how to sarcastically blow your argument out of the water but will try to refrain. Leadership is an intangible but it is not a HUGE reason we are keeping him. We came within hours of trading Ramirez if Jose didn't call his agent before SDP could entice Dolan with enough cheap prospects. Was Ramirez leadership not that important compared to Rosario? The reason is what you said ... not getting enough back. They would trade anyone if it made them a better team now or in the future. Lindor was traded even if he was a team leader. Someone mentioned would Arias or Freeman be better than Rosario this year (if not, don't trade him) ... It doesn't matter. No one we would have gotten for Jose would have been better (not even 2 combined) - not even close. But it was under serious consideration if he didn't sign a team friendly contract (THAT IS LEADERSHIP - wanting to be a Guardian for LIFE). You also said before we signed anyone we had young team.... We are actually probably older this year than last year as everyone is a year older, does that mean we need more leadership? Did we hold onto Shaw and Hedges for their leadership or hold onto Reyes last year due to his? We had more question last year with Naylor limping into ST and Hedges being a foul tip away from concussion protocols.

And, what kind of leader is Rosario? Yes, he hustles and Jose obviously likes him. Yet, watching the WBC tonight, you have Turner batting 6th finally (9th in most of the other games) because he doesn't care where he bats. Anderson is playing 2nd for the good of the team because he wants to win knowing Turner is just as good of SS, if not better, than him. Yet, Rosario forces Tito to play him at SS and bat 2nd because mentally he cannot handle flexibility and change. Gimenez hits more, hits with more power and takes more walks ... but logically why was he 7th today vs LHP and probably 6th for RHP -- because we want our best hitters in bottom of the lineup. Rosario isn't even top 5 in projected OWAR on this team. I went off on Tito's decision in Rosario's first year to ease him into the team before forcing him into the OF (as there wouldn't be enough time before season). But, come on, last year, Rosario had all the time in the world to make the transition to OF (long lockout with no games to shag BP flyballs at any college or HS in Arz) but we saw how that went. Even Miller, who has played only 1 GAME in college and all of his minor league time in LF is now being considered as an extra OF for Brewers who have enough OF to drive him out of Milwaukee in a year, focused enough on picking up an OF glove. He made the adjustment to even play CF adequately - Rosario couldn't even handle LF. But, Rosario knowing what was best for team and self decided ... we saw what won. The only skill OF need is depth perception and some speed and enough time to judge routes and sound of bat. I always said he wanted SS money ... taking 2nd base or LF money wouldn't do. We will see that this coming offseason. THAT is a leader!!!! especially with an abundance of MIFs coming up to show them how to be a team player.

 

[sportscoach]

Sorry, keep on hearing your argument on Rosario being a team leader and was contemplating how to sarcastically blow your argument out of the water but will try to refrain. Leadership is an intangible but it is not a HUGE reason we are keeping him. We came within hours of trading Ramirez if Jose didn't call his agent before SDP could entice Dolan with enough cheap prospects. Was Ramirez leadership not that important compared to Rosario? The reason is what you said ... not getting enough back. They would trade anyone if it made them a better team now or in the future. Lindor was traded even if he was a team leader. Someone mentioned would Arias or Freeman be better than Rosario this year (if not, don't trade him) ... It doesn't matter. No one we would have gotten for Jose would have been better (not even 2 combined) - not even close. But it was under serious consideration if he didn't sign a team friendly contract (THAT IS LEADERSHIP - wanting to be a Guardian for LIFE). You also said before we signed anyone we had young team.... We are actually probably older this year than last year as everyone is a year older, does that mean we need more leadership? Did we hold onto Shaw and Hedges for their leadership or hold onto Reyes last year due to his? We had more question last year with Naylor limping into ST and Hedges being a foul tip away from concussion protocols.

And, what kind of leader is Rosario? Yes, he hustles and Jose obviously likes him. Yet, watching the WBC tonight, you have Turner batting 6th finally (9th in most of the other games) because he doesn't care where he bats. Anderson is playing 2nd for the good of the team because he wants to win knowing Turner is just as good of SS, if not better, than him. Yet, Rosario forces Tito to play him at SS and bat 2nd because mentally he cannot handle flexibility and change. Gimenez hits more, hits with more power and takes more walks ... but logically why was he 7th today vs LHP and probably 6th for RHP -- because we want our best hitters in bottom of the lineup. Rosario isn't even top 5 in projected OWAR on this team. I went off on Tito's decision in Rosario's first year to ease him into the team before forcing him into the OF (as there wouldn't be enough time before season). But, come on, last year, Rosario had all the time in the world to make the transition to OF (long lockout with no games to shag BP flyballs at any college or HS in Arz) but we saw how that went. Even Miller, who has played only 1 GAME in college and all of his minor league time in LF is now being considered as an extra OF for Brewers who have enough OF to drive him out of Milwaukee in a year, focused enough on picking up an OF glove. He made the adjustment to even play CF adequately - Rosario couldn't even handle LF. But, Rosario knowing what was best for team and self decided ... we saw what won. The only skill OF need is depth perception and some speed and enough time to judge routes and sound of bat. I always said he wanted SS money ... taking 2nd base or LF money wouldn't do. We will see that this coming offseason. THAT is a leader!!!! especially with an abundance of MIFs coming up to show them how to be a team player.

On paper, you may be right, but we don't 100% know what is going on behind the scenes. It makes very little sense that publicly they are calling him a leader and JRam wants him in Cleveland and he is acting the way you stated. Don't forget he is still young himself in the grand scheme of things.

I actually took the OF experiment way differently than you did as well since I stunk as an OF to be honest when I played. I got to the point I could hit the catcher on the fly from deep CF (high school fields) and I ran a 4.4 in the 40 so I was quick on my feet. I was a shit route runner to the ball and I never seemed to be judging the balls right.

Put me in the INF, I just had to make sure I didn't over throw the 1B if I wasn't playing 1B. I could make just about every play regardless of what position I was at. I mostly played 3B or 1B but 2B or SS was easy to handle (I just didn't like playing there lol) I also played catcher and I could throw to 2B without even needing to stand up without a bounce. (Aka I threw in the low 80s off the mound when I was 14 and 140lbs. Plus I find out in boredom, I could pitch submarine actually really well to. Damn to Injures and damn to have EDS. I would have played at least minor league ball if I knew about my EDS).

Aka my point is, Rosario looks like he could become a great OF, but for whatever rhyme or reasons, he's just bad at it even when he shouldn't be. He just doesn't have the right skills for the OF in my mind and I bet you behind closed doors he was practicing just never got the hang of it. I feel like he actually translate to 3B from how he played last season...

Plus in 22, his demeanor changed a fair amount. I did state something I believe at one point, but he did seem to finally mentally grow up in a sense. His errors went down, his range and play at SS all just went way up. Almost like when Carrasco went from a hot head to a very reliable guy... It sounds strange I know, but when that switch got hit he changed and became a leader.

That's just my take of course and I am actually really good at reading body languages of people so if I watch enough/see them enough, I am good at getting a general idea at how players are feeling.

Antonetti wanted to do as little as possible to mess with the chemistry of the current team. Trading Amed for little, would send the wrong message. For better or for worse, he has become apart of the current chemistry of the roster. Let's hope he see that 180 hit mark with 30+ steal cause that means he stayed the course and mentality that he found for himself in 22...

Edit: Amed was always around a range factor of 3.4 -/+ 0.1 in 22 he was a 3.7. Now league average is a 3.9 so he is below range, but he was above league avg in Fld%...

Ps. Side note here... Vizquel was usually around a 4.6-4.7 and so was the league then. So current SS on paper lack the range of pre shift era. So let's see how that changes.

I know that's slightly subjective in a sense, but it's rare to see an actual jump like that at SS. Something that he did in 22 (mentally or physically) changed his game...

 

[KluberSociety]

So Rosario is either less valuable than Orlando Arcia or about to sign a $100+ MM contract. Okay...

 

[sportscoach]

So Rosario is either less valuable than Orlando Arcia or about to sign a $100+ MM contract. Okay...

Can I say both?