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Civale is the dark horse IMO. The key is staying healthy.Very nice performance from Aaron Civale tonight...
He was 10-2 with a 3.32 ERA when he hurt his arm in June, 2021. He missed over two months and was inconsistent in his last six starts, although he threw two 6-inning shutouts against the Yankees and Rangers. Then in 2022 he got hurt three times, but went 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his last 10 appearances in the regular season.
When he's been healthy the last two years he's been a very good starter except for the first month of the 2022 season coming off a shortened spring training. The problem is he's gone on IR four times in the last year-and-a-half and none of those times were due to freak injuries like getting hit with a line drive. One was a pulled hammy incurred while covering first base and the other three were arm or finger injuries from pitching.
If he can avoid injuries this year I really think he could win 15 games.
Civale’s curveball and sinker helped him produce above-average strikeout and chase rates last year, while he maintained an outstanding 5.4% walk rate. Civale’s curveball ranked in the top 10 among all pitchers with a 50.9% strikeout rate, while his sinker produced a -0.6 run value per 100 pitches. - Hoynes
He struck out 10 Tigers in six innings last year and I think all 10 were on curveballs.