2023 Rule 5 Draft

[petes999]

As I said elsewhere, next week will be a let down and boring for us. Thus, looking ahead. I doubt we will take anyone in this draft but we are in a position to get someone picking around 10th or so. But as Tampa showed last year, you can always buy a decent pick. This Rule 5 will be interesting because it includes the lack of 2020 College kids with draft being 5 rounds (2023 being 4th year when they become eligible). Therefore, there may not be as much of a full 40 man roster as last year when 3 of top 8 teams passed -- Colorado theoretically passed and traded pick to Tampa. Yet, 5 of the first 7 teams selected guys that they kept and rest returned other than Rodriquez for Cardinals who has been injured on now on rehab. As some say it usually is nothing but us losing Kelly and Santander - and theoretically Palacios as they deemed him not 40 man worthy over the winter-- is something.

Last year's draft

1. Nationals (38) -- RHP Thad Ward (BOS) becomes Nationals' No. 13 prospect (-0.3 WAR on BR and -0.4 on FG but a strong Sept after injury)
2. A’s (38) -- 1B Ryan Noda (LAD) becomes A's No. 26 prospect (2.2/2.3 WAR on FG/BR)
3. Pirates (38) -- LHP Jose Hernandez (LAD) (0 WAR on FG/BR)
4. Reds (39) -- OF Blake Sabol (PIT) (0.8/0.4 WAR on FG/BR)
5. Royals (40) -- Roster full
6. Tigers (38) -- RHP Mason Englert (TEX) becomes Tigers' No. 26 prospect (-0.7/-0.4 on FG/BR - injured 2nd half)
7. Rangers (40) -- Roster full
8. Rockies (38) -- RHP Kevin Kelly (CLE) (1.2/0.8 WAR on FG/BR - wouldn't he looked good over Sandlin if given a chance???)
9. Marlins (39) -- RHP Nic Enright (CLE) becomes Marlins' No. 24 prospect (Returned and struggled due to cancer issues)
10. Angels (40) -- Roster full
11. D-backs (40) -- Roster full
12. Cubs (36) -- Pass
13. Twins (39) -- Pass
14. Red Sox (39) -- Pass
15. White Sox (36) -- RHP Nick Avila (SF) Returned
16. Giants (39) -- Pass
17. Orioles (38) -- RHP Andrew Politi (BOS) Returned
18. Brewers (38) -- RHP Gus Varland (LAD) Returned
19. Rays (39) -- Pass
20. Phillies (38) -- RHP Noah Song (BOS) Returned
21. Padres (34) -- LHP Jose Lopez (TB) becomes Padres' No. 22 prospect Returned
22. Mariners (37) -- RHP Chris Clarke (CHC) becomes Mariners' No. 28 prospect Returned
23. Guardians (39) -- Pass
24. Blue Jays (39) -- Pass
25. Cardinals (38) -- RHP Wilking Rodriguez (NYY) (Injured on rehab assignment)
26. Yankees (39) -- Pass
27. Mets (34) -- RHP Zach Greene (NYY) becomes Mets' No. 25 prospect Returned
28. Braves (38) -- Pass
29. Astros (37) -- Pass
30. Dodgers (37) -- Pass

 

[petes999]

So, the question is how far down do we protect?

Think the overall consensus (give or take) in order is Espino, Rodriquez, Hankins, Smith, Lavastida, (cut-off) Burns, Frias, Benton, Schneeman, Bracho, Altunez, Pries, Wolf, Torres, Benjamin

Who do we drop from the 41 man (Bibee on 60 day)? Giolito, Lopez, Calhoun, Gallagher, Kelly (easy cut-off of 5), Fry, Oscar, Laureano,

So it is Fry for Lavastida? Kind of fitting ... As for reliever, Smith vs Kelly vs FA spot like Lopez vs taking Rule 5 with open slot???

Possible DFA - Sandlin and Morgan (but risk of slightly better than average MOR over taking a Rule 5 or taking a chance at of a Burns???)

Remember, there a few block buster trades before the rosters are set as there isn't much of an offseason to work these bigger trades in time vs 1-1 roster trades.....

 

[Tondo]

Antunez, Benjamin and Frias are the highest rated prospects, but hitters that haven't at least reached AA never get taken. Iirc the Blue Jays left a top 100 A Ball guy unprotected.

I think the 5 you mentioned are gone and Fry, Oscar and especially Laureano survive the R5 cut off.

That would leave 4 open spots. The two pedigree P plus Rodriguez. Last spot goes to either Smith or Lavastida, or left open for the draft. I'd say Smith.

But there will be some smaller trades before the cut off like in past years

 

[petes999]

Part of the other reason I did this was to start looking at the roster crunches that others will face (that we are not to their extent) .... as FG didn't do their article this year.

I hate to leave a guy like Lavastida or Burns off the list but ... will they be taken in the top part of the draft where guys are kept? And, if Lavastida is taken and then returned, it would be his 2nd deferral so I believe then eligible for minor league FA (like Enright if taken again).

Kansas City overview - Sitting 48 men with FA(just 3) - Keller, Greinke and Duffy and a bunch of guys needing roster spaces Mann, Gentry, Klein, Hoffman and few like Seikmann -- Part of me feels that this roster will be FULL.

Oakland overview - Sitting at 47 with FA (just 1) - Kemp and need to protect Hernaiz and Salinas and possibly Ginn and Davidson. With cutting Laureano, it shows how deep they would need to cut to add someone....

Colorado - Sitting at 45 with FA(just 2) Blackmon and Suter and need to protect Amador and Fernandez and possibly Criswell. They maybe able to get under but like last year, there isn't much room.

Chicago WS - They are at 44 with Grandall and Andrus as FA and club options on Anderson & Hendricks and mutual Clevinger. They will protect Mena and Eder and possibly Thompson but with a weak farm system, I am sure they will take a pick (especially if get 1st dibs). But, again with FA, how will they build? Will fans be patient to work a guy in as 8th pen person or 13 bench guy???

St Louis - They are at 45 with with only Wainwright and VerHagen as FA. They will protect Robberse and Kloffenstein and Pages (possibly). But, again, how much do they want a Rule 5 vs going for FA or something.

Nationals - They are sitting at 47 with Strasburg issue and Edwards as FA (Robles has a $3.3 club option). They will add Henry and Hertz and maybe one or two others. But, again how deep do these teams have to cut? Call??? Downs???

Angels - Okay a big mess with no farm system ... They are at 51 but FA to Urshela, Ohtani, Grichuk, Cron and Mustakas and Club on Escobar and Loup. Even though they may only need to add Kochanowicz, do they need to leave space to try one last run at Ohtani by adding other FAs first or is that ship sail and rebuild?

Mets - Sitting at 45 with a few FA in Curtiss and Cookie and player options on Ottavino and Narvaez and club on Raley. Without much to add other than Orze, they could be in play to select someone. But, Cohen is going to put pressure to win now vs add a rule 5.

Pittsburgh - They are at 47 with FA for McCutchen and Valesquez and club on Garcias. There are not many new guys to add but few left overs from last year like Nunez. They could work themselves down a bit to select someone ....

Guardians - We could be taking the 4-5th player ... someone like Kelly last year from others teams ... so it will be interesting how this game of chess works out.

But, overall, you got teams that need FAs to make a quick resurrection or team like last year that have too much young talent (from trading best players) that this will be another very quiet Rule 5 draft.

 

[petes999]

The question is if we take a Rule 5 pick on Wednesday? It never hurts to look as the strength of this Rule 5 seems to be OF and RP which we can always take a flyer to improve our roster.

Usually OFs are not selected, but we have shown that the 13th roster spot is always wasted anyways with the like of Clement, Viloria, Clement and even Gallagher (when Fry was playing more C). With our roster flexibility with Arias and Freeman picking up an OF glove, there is room to take a flyer for an OF. And, if it doesn't work out, you just return them. You can go 4 OF + 2 C + 6 Inf + Rule 5 -- but it means that Fry is optioned to AAA as he has full 3 options remaining. Plus, since his return from his injury in Sept, he only hit .177 BA (22 PA in 15 games). With Bethancourt as our back-up catcher, we don't need to play the 3 catcher shenanigans. Yet, adding someone in that 5th OF spot, limits the look sees at guys like Valera and Noel who will be on their last options (which in itself with Straw/Brennan/Kwan/Laureano - limits ABs anyways). Some interesting names to look out for (all ranked with 40/45 FV in AA/AAA that had decent 2023 numbers)

1) Baltimore - Hudson Haskins -- can play all 3 OF positions, was injured last year with a hammy so limited ABs but hit .268 in AAA. He has speed and power - just what we need. So don't tell me you rather have Fry over this guy as your RHB.

2) Philies - Carlos De La Cruz -- this is a stretch as he only played in AA last year. He strikes out a lot but is that power RHB that we crave for (24 HR in AA).

3) Rays - Kameron Misner -- not really what we are looking for (a lefty with a high strike out rate) but is something that a team before us may want as a 4th/5th OF to allow a righty OF fall to us. But, if he can stay in CF and platoon with Straw, he hit 21 HRs last year with a wicked splits (better w RHP of course with decent avg despite high K rates).

4) Twins - Deshawn Keirsey - Another lefty that can jump to MLB immediately with his speed. Not a great fit for us but shows what is out there as he has speed 30+ SB to stay in CF and some power.

 

[petes999]

For Rule 5, the golden ticket is usually RPs. No one thought Kelly would do as well as he did being the pick in 8th slot (6th pick overall). Just shows that we may get someone who falls to us. As for interesting prospects, I can try to name a few, but I would assume that the pick will come out of left field (something that our brain trust sees as an easy fix in a delivery to gamble on). Look at Stephan who was the 15th pick, had a 4 ERA in A+ (in 2019 with no 2020 minor league) and now we count on him for our back-end (same year we lost Oviedo - earlier in draft)??? As more teams select a RP/SP in the draft hoping to strike gold, teams have been rostering them more and more (like our Smith - off 30 man prospect list), making it a true gamble (maybe better odds with position players).

With our bullpen in a bit of disarray, I would gamble (even draft 2 - pitcher/OF and waive Rivas) on a high upside pitcher that could replace Barlow in 2025 in back end (like Stephan did). And, if they are a starter, they could play the Curry role (inning eater this year to earn back-end next year) and allow Curry to be stretched and developed more in AAA. A few names to look at (again someone should fall to us ... or we can jump up to take one)

NYY - Matt Sauer - A highly drafted player with injury history. His FB went from 97 in HS to 91-93 as a starter. Could he find some speed in relief. His K rate in AA was 93 in 74 innings.

Tampa - Cole Wilcox - He is our Hankins with more upside. He has a 60 grade FB and Slider. Can be a mini-Clase. Last year was rough after TJS, but had 3 good outings in September in AA to close it out.

STL - Ian Bedell - Another TJS but with nearly 100 innings last year in A+ compared to Hankins.

Hous - Misael Tamarez - with hitting near 100 on his FB and hard slider, he has the potential to be a great pick up but his walk rate of 60 in 100 innings will be like Karinchack. One of those pitchers that can shine if a pitching coach sees something in his delivery.

Bos - Liu - FG says ... Liu (sitting 95 mph with a plus breaking ball and average split as a starter) could be vulnerable in the Rule 5, especially if teams think his stuff will tick up in relief. The issue again is his high walks.

Sea - Taylor Dollard - Not really on our radar as a hard throwing reliever but will get one of the lower teams to look at him as their long-reliever/spot starter (over a guy like Burns or our Hankins).

KC - Chandler Champlain -- He had 1/2 season at AA and his FB plays up earlier in outtings.

 

[Gson]

Looking over the Rule V guys.. not one single player stands out as worth a roster spot for the entire 2024 season.. imho..

 

[sportscoach]

The question is if we take a Rule 5 pick on Wednesday? It never hurts to look as the strength of this Rule 5 seems to be OF and RP which we can always take a flyer to improve our roster.

Usually OFs are not selected, but we have shown that the 13th roster spot is always wasted anyways with the like of Clement, Viloria, Clement and even Gallagher (when Fry was playing more C). With our roster flexibility with Arias and Freeman picking up an OF glove, there is room to take a flyer for an OF. And, if it doesn't work out, you just return them. You can go 4 OF + 2 C + 6 Inf + Rule 5 -- but it means that Fry is optioned to AAA as he has full 3 options remaining. Plus, since his return from his injury in Sept, he only hit .177 BA (22 PA in 15 games). With Bethancourt as our back-up catcher, we don't need to play the 3 catcher shenanigans. Yet, adding someone in that 5th OF spot, limits the look sees at guys like Valera and Noel who will be on their last options (which in itself with Straw/Brennan/Kwan/Laureano - limits ABs anyways). Some interesting names to look out for (all ranked with 40/45 FV in AA/AAA that had decent 2023 numbers)

1) Baltimore - Hudson Haskins -- can play all 3 OF positions, was injured last year with a hammy so limited ABs but hit .268 in AAA. He has speed and power - just what we need. So don't tell me you rather have Fry over this guy as your RHB.

2) Philies - Carlos De La Cruz -- this is a stretch as he only played in AA last year. He strikes out a lot but is that power RHB that we crave for (24 HR in AA).

3) Rays - Kameron Misner -- not really what we are looking for (a lefty with a high strike out rate) but is something that a team before us may want as a 4th/5th OF to allow a righty OF fall to us. But, if he can stay in CF and platoon with Straw, he hit 21 HRs last year with a wicked splits (better w RHP of course with decent avg despite high K rates).

4) Twins - Deshawn Keirsey - Another lefty that can jump to MLB immediately with his speed. Not a great fit for us but shows what is out there as he has speed 30+ SB to stay in CF and some power.

I'd rather have Haskins than Straw right now personally...

 

[petes999]

Looking over the Rule V guys.. not one single player stands out as worth a roster spot for the entire 2024 season.. imho..

Well, that is true in that none of them got a 40 man spot and are a gamble. But for $50,000 (100 - 50 return), I will take that gamble because as for me

1) I rather have some upside like a Haskins or De La Cruz over a Rivas who doesn't really even deserve a 40 man slot

2) It is time for a Sandlin or Curry to move over for some higher upside reliever like a Herrin, Sauer or a Wilcox -- as we need to develop someone for the back end vs relying on a Barlow type (hot/cold - 1 yr rental). It is not like we can count on Stephan or Karinchak as we anticipated last year.

Yet, I have my doubts that we even take a pick

1) They are sticking with Straw and Laureano in CF/OF with Kwan and Brennan -- where we only have 1 more spot and a lot of our guys need a legit show whether if Freeman/Arias can be that super utility guy (if not SS for Arias), Valera/Noel (on last options), Rocchio/Tena needs some time too as a utility guy (SS). I would also like to see Martinez get a shot in CF by mid-year over the Straw/Laureano mehh line up.

2) Even though there are 5 guys in pen that are penciled in are Clase, Barlow, Hentges, Stephan, Morgan (over Sandlin for possible length), they may want Curry/Gaddis up as 6th guy for length. Yet, for me, Curry is just another Sandlin/Morgan back-end guy. Sandlin is too inconsistent and will be overtaken soon (get a little value when you can). Karinchak is a hot mess. Herrin is the only guy who can step in day 1 and start battling for the backend with his speed.

Yet, as others will say, by end of this year or next year, we have to make room for Sharpe, Thorton, Aleman, Walters and I wouldn't sleep on Smith. And, I would look at Gaddis in pen vs starter too. Thus, this is why I would look at Wilcox for Curry role this year and then decide at year-end to make him a back-end piece or throw him in AAA to be another starter to trade down the road. Yet, FO will probably just be patient vs spending $50,000 on a lottery ticket.

As for Smith, CleGuardPro wrote "Smith showed increased velocity on his fastball from 96 mph while sitting at 93-95 mph in 2022 to now topping out at 98 mph and sitting around 95-96 mph in 2023." He graded FB at 65 but needs more control and an above average 2nd pitch to earn a back-end role (so more time developing in AAA this year).

 

[CDAV45]

Well, that is true in that none of them got a 40 man spot and are a gamble. But for $50,000 (100 - 50 return), I will take that gamble because as for me

1) I rather have some upside like a Haskins or De La Cruz over a Rivas who doesn't really even deserve a 40 man slot

2) It is time for a Sandlin or Curry to move over for some higher upside reliever like a Herrin, Sauer or a Wilcox -- as we need to develop someone for the back end vs relying on a Barlow type (hot/cold - 1 yr rental). It is not like we can count on Stephan or Karinchak as we anticipated last year.

Yet, I have my doubts that we even take a pick

1) They are sticking with Straw and Laureano in CF/OF with Kwan and Brennan -- where we only have 1 more spot and a lot of our guys need a legit show whether if Freeman/Arias can be that super utility guy (if not SS for Arias), Valera/Noel (on last options), Rocchio/Tena needs some time too as a utility guy (SS). I would also like to see Martinez get a shot in CF by mid-year over the Straw/Laureano mehh line up.

2) Even though there are 5 guys in pen that are penciled in are Clase, Barlow, Hentges, Stephan, Morgan (over Sandlin for possible length), they may want Curry/Gaddis up as 6th guy for length. Yet, for me, Curry is just another Sandlin/Morgan back-end guy. Sandlin is too inconsistent and will be overtaken soon (get a little value when you can). Karinchak is a hot mess. Herrin is the only guy who can step in day 1 and start battling for the backend with his speed.

Yet, as others will say, by end of this year or next year, we have to make room for Sharpe, Thorton, Aleman, Walters and I wouldn't sleep on Smith. And, I would look at Gaddis in pen vs starter too. Thus, this is why I would look at Wilcox for Curry role this year and then decide at year-end to make him a back-end piece or throw him in AAA to be another starter to trade down the road. Yet, FO will probably just be patient vs spending $50,000 on a lottery ticket.

As for Smith, CleGuardPro wrote "Smith showed increased velocity on his fastball from 96 mph while sitting at 93-95 mph in 2022 to now topping out at 98 mph and sitting around 95-96 mph in 2023." He graded FB at 65 but needs more control and an above average 2nd pitch to earn a back-end role (so more time developing in AAA this year).

I hope and pray that we don't have to withstand another season starting with an OF consisting of Kwan, Straw, Brennan and Laureano. If we do then they do not intend to be competitive at all for the 24 season. I suspect that's the case as all of Valera, Rodriguez and DeLauter could be vying for time in the OF before too long. There's also the possibility that Martinez and Brito could see some time in the grass as well.

I don't concern myself with the BP often and I think that this could be a good time to deal Clase if they chose to, but I understand if they chose not to. Aleman, Smith and Walters are all 3 intriguing and Herrin really caught my eye prior to the start of last season. We shouldn't downplay how good Hentges is becoming. Karinchak is obviously talented, but I think he has a $.10 mind and I'm sick of his shenanigans. There is no reason to carry both Curry and Morgan in the BP. Sandlin can be super effective, but his value took a hit after last season. I'm not sure what role Gaddis will have, but if he hasn't significantly improved his control he wouldn't have one for this team if it were up to me. I wouldn't rule out some BP work from Espino and Hankins at some point in 24 either. Both have backend stuff and could use a BP role to build their innings going forward. If that is a possibility I hope it's only temporary as I still like both of them as potential front end SP.

In the end, they have to take a step back and make a decision based on where they think they are vs where they want to be and decide the best way to improve the roster. I'm sure there's plenty of disagreement and banter from within on exactly what should be done. In my view, the OF has to be addressed and right there with the OF is the need for quality SP depth. Bieber could very well be traded and I'm not confident in the amount of innings McKenzie can give. If Triston starts the season healthy and effective I might consider moving him at the deadline to avoid the injury risk going forward. He's just too fragile and if it weren't for that I'd be looking to extend him if possible. Great kid and talent.

I'll be surprised if they make a R5 pick. They have enough questionable talent that they don't need to be cornered into sacrificing a roster spot for another one IMO.

 

[sportscoach]

I hope and pray that we don't have to withstand another season starting with an OF consisting of Kwan, Straw, Brennan and Laureano. If we do then they do not intend to be competitive at all for the 24 season. I suspect that's the case as all of Valera, Rodriguez and DeLauter could be vying for time in the OF before too long. There's also the possibility that Martinez and Brito could see some time in the grass as well.

I don't concern myself with the BP often and I think that this could be a good time to deal Clase if they chose to, but I understand if they chose not to. Aleman, Smith and Walters are all 3 intriguing and Herrin really caught my eye prior to the start of last season. We shouldn't downplay how good Hentges is becoming. Karinchak is obviously talented, but I think he has a $.10 mind and I'm sick of his shenanigans. There is no reason to carry both Curry and Morgan in the BP. Sandlin can be super effective, but his value took a hit after last season. I'm not sure what role Gaddis will have, but if he hasn't significantly improved his control he wouldn't have one for this team if it were up to me. I wouldn't rule out some BP work from Espino and Hankins at some point in 24 either. Both have backend stuff and could use a BP role to build their innings going forward. If that is a possibility I hope it's only temporary as I still like both of them as potential front end SP.

In the end, they have to take a step back and make a decision based on where they think they are vs where they want to be and decide the best way to improve the roster. I'm sure there's plenty of disagreement and banter from within on exactly what should be done. In my view, the OF has to be addressed and right there with the OF is the need for quality SP depth. Bieber could very well be traded and I'm not confident in the amount of innings McKenzie can give. If Triston starts the season healthy and effective I might consider moving him at the deadline to avoid the injury risk going forward. He's just too fragile and if it weren't for that I'd be looking to extend him if possible. Great kid and talent.

I'll be surprised if they make a R5 pick. They have enough questionable talent that they don't need to be cornered into sacrificing a roster spot for another one IMO.

I'm sure you will like this... Take Hudson Haskins and trade Straw lol

 

[Benway]

I wish Straw was available in Rule 5. When they offered him back, I'd be Nope.

 

[petes999]

Here is Mayo Rule 5 possible selections ...

These prospects could be taken in the Rule 5 Draft

It's diamond in the rough time. Every year, teams find big leaguers in the Rule 5 Draft. We expect the 2023 version, to be held at the Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tenn., on Wednesday at 1 p.m. CT., to be no different.

www.mlb.com

 

[Tondo]

I'm confused....FG says draft lottery is today and Rule 5 tomorrow, while mlbpipeline has them December 6th/7th, so delayed by a day...

 

[Gson]

I'm confused....FG says draft lottery is today and Rule 5 tomorrow, while mlbpipeline has them December 6th/7th, so delayed by a day...

Tuesday/Wednesday Draft Lottery/Rule V draft...