2023 Rule 5 Draft

[Criznit]

@petes999 Thanks for the Rule 5 draft primer...

Still looking through the names, but righty reliever Justin Slaten immediately stands out to me. He's a lock to get picked by someone.

As for our guys... Pitching-wise Hankins and Burns stand out as possibilities and position-wise Lavastida is about the only one we could lose, but we won't, as no one will pick him

 

[sportscoach]

@petes999 Thanks for the Rule 5 draft primer...

Still looking through the names, but righty reliever Justin Slaten immediately stands out to me. He's a lock to get picked by someone.

As for our guys... Pitching-wise Hankins and Burns stand out as possibilities and position-wise Lavastida is about the only one we could lose, but we won't, as no one will pick him

Schneeman could be a player picked as well if they believe his 23 wasn't an anomaly... I doubt Pries will, but he has shown flashes of being good

 

[petes999]

Schneeman could be a player picked as well if they believe his 23 wasn't an anomaly... I doubt Pries will, but he has shown flashes of being good

I doubt we could even get $100,000 for him if we traded him straight up (non-Rule 5). I know you loved his June and July +300 BA. Yet, like Pries, he came back down to earth with final 3 months .274/.226/.178. I wouldn't even shed a tear if we lost him in the AAA phase.

Part of me wonders if we let Oscar go when we did, not necessarily for a trade for even Rule 5 space, but as a favor in return for him re-signing with us as a minor league FA at end of 21. We would do Schneeman a favor by letting him go now. We may not even have room for him as a back-up next year as a MIF/3B

AAA - Tena, Brito, Martinez
AA - Tolentino, Frias, Watson, Furman

Then fighting for scrap time (assuming Rocchio, Freeman, Arias, Fry -- all make our MLB roster or traded) -- Schneeman, Delgado, Bracho (more 1st I guess), and another wave in A+ with Benjamin, Devers, Genao Cairo, Valdez, Turner (later three who could go up to AA as utility guys).

If someone wants a utility player, Prato from Twins will be the obvious Rule 5 choice. In the last 2 Rule 5s, only 2-3 position players have gotten picked. I came up with a list of 4 OFs that I would love to have even over a Rivas who is rostered let alone Schneeman.

As for our pitching, I think Burns and Hankins are relatively safe. But, I thought losing both Enright/Kelly was long-shot too. But, if teams are looking for a reclamation project, I would take Wilcox, Sauer and just as big of reach Lacy (with higher upside). Burns maybe, but how many pitchers have we listed here that have higher upside as he is middle reliever type upside now?? I skipped several who are already in AA/AAA that were Burns FB level but with better numbers. I like 7 (just for high leverage backend speed types) + Criznit's Slaten plus many others that I would take ahead of Burns who could be consistent 5th/6th starters for teams over time. You look at the draft order and only Nationals, Tigers and Pirates are sitting with 38 right now. I don't know if this draft goes to a 2nd round for a non-contender to look to stash 2 (and no other FA signings or extra player via trade). Thus, if we make it past first 15 or so selections without anyone picked, the chances of a non-return selection is slim. And, I can easily name 15 players better than Burns and Hankins and 50 better than Schneeman and Pries (being a bit sarcastic).

 

[petes999]

It is interesting that none of us have really mentioned Burns being lost in Rule 5 (Hankins and Frias) but Burns is getting a lot of mentions...

From CBSSports
4. Tanner Burns, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Burns, a supplemental first-round pick out of Auburn University in 2020, has seen his stock slip mightily in recent years. Not only did he spend a second full season in Double-A, the Guardians also used him out of the bullpen down the stretch. Neither is what you want to see from an SEC product. Burns, 24, has a varied arsenal led by a rising low-90s fastball and a slider, and he has accumulated a career 3.37 ERA. His stuff is too light to be an impact reliever, suggesting that he's perhaps best suited in a swingman role.

2023 MLB Rule 5 Draft: Date, time, five players to watch and everything else to know

The draft will take place on Dec. 6 in Nashville

www.cbssports.com

From Mayo this morning (Burns mentioned as one of 6 arms being talked about)
Tanner Burns, RHP, Guardians (No. 19): There have been some injury issues, but he’s topped 85 IP in each of the last two seasons and pitched well with a move to the bullpen in Double-A in 2023 (2.73 ERA, 10.6 K/9), which could intrigue teams.

Is his based on his Comp A selection? If he was something, wouldn't the Tribe have brought him up over Gaddis or Curry? AAA needed relievers at the end of last year and they kept him at AA for 2 years. His upside now seems to be a multi-inning reliever which doesn't sound that glamorous in Rule 5, at least Kelly had a funky release and both Enright and Kelly had command which has been an issue the first few years for Burns.

Yet, again, I don't think Cleveland would have passed on rostering a guy that could be more than just useful over Rivas. MLB Pipe may just be high due to his draft status. He is 44th in FG Cle Prospect Board and did nothing to change it for the better this year. And, in the end, Burns would have been passed over next year for who we need to roster in pitching

2024 year-end
Starters (6) - McK, Williams, Espino, Bibee, Cantillo, Allen
Relievers (6) - Clase, Stephan, Hentges, Smith, Herrin, Morgan
Possible/Probable Adds (5) - Thorton, Aleman, Sharpe, Webb, Hankins?
Hanging Around (5) - Gaddis, Curry, Sandlin, Morris, Karinchak
Others needing space- whole 2021 draft class - Leftwich, Dion, Nikhazy, Mace, Carver, Johnston...
Relievers who could rise - Torres, Wolf, Hajjar, Benton, Enright, Miko, Miso, Walters (not eligible but will see 2025 action) ....

And this doesn't include the prospects in trades of Bieber and/or Clase.

So, even if we lose a Burns, it is kind of like Kelly, may be a solid middle reliever guy. Yet Cleveland is focused on getting those back-end guys for the upside and these guys are roster crunch folder issues. For Cleveland, the key is to develop the high $$$ guys -- starters and back of pen guys so we don't need the Barlow types the eat our payroll that could be used for other positions.

 

[petes999]

So draft is at 2 pm, here is the current order as roster as of last night (unfortunately, last night lottery has no impact on this). We may get the 5th-7th pick factoring full rosters. Will that be enticing enough to make a selection? Is that why we passed on rostering Burns too (but why not just cut Rivas)? Can we keep our luck going from last night?

1. A's (39)
2. Royals (40)
3. Rockies (40)
4. White Sox (39) - Fedde makes 40
5. Nationals (38)
6. Cardinals (39) - On record as wanting FA relievers so may pass
7. Angels (39) - Want to build up in FA (resign Ohtani) so may pass
8. Mets (33)
9. Pirates (39)
10. Guardians (39)
11. Tigers (38)
12. Red Sox (37)
13. Giants (36)
14. Reds (39) -
15. Padres (31)
16. Yankees (37)
17. Cubs (37)
18. Marlins (39)
19. D-backs (38)
20. Twins (36)
21. Mariners (36)
22. Blue Jays (37)
23. Rangers (35)
24. Phillies (38)
25. Astros (38)
26. Brewers (36)
27. Rays (40)
28. Dodgers (39)
29. Orioles (36)
30. Braves (34)

 

[Tondo]

I believe we'll lose a couple in the minors phase. I come up with 40+ names worth keeping around (38 roster) and I already left out busts like Sanquintin etc.

Especially guys with only one year of control left (2018 draftees and 2017 IFA) are in danger to be left exposed and this includes K. Holland, A. Scott, Ponticelli, L. Torres, Schneemann, Delgado and even Planez

 

[petes999]

I believe we'll lose a couple in the minors phase. I come up with 40+ names worth keeping around (38 roster) and I already left out busts like Sanquintin etc.

Especially guys with only one year of control left (2018 draftees and 2017 IFA) are in danger to be left exposed and this includes K. Holland, A. Scott, Ponticelli, L. Torres, Schneemann, Delgado and even Planez

Torres is the only one in this group, maybe Planez, that I would worry about. Who are your other 38 guys? I don't see much of a crunch .... (assuming we let some AAA relievers go

Just going off FanGraph list
Catchers - Lavastida and Ramirez maybe Hernandez (have protected Paz and Planchart in past but they are getting passed soon and maybe no room), Beglund?
1st/DH - Collado, Pries, Naranjo, maybe Sanquitin, Ball ????
2nd - Benjamin, Pastrano, maybe Brancho (had a few good months)
SS - Devers, Valdes
3rd - Frias, Cairo, maybe Rodriquez or Schneeman
OF - Burgus, Durango, Altunez, Gonzalez maybe Planez, Para
Here is 15 for sure and 7-8 maybes (for 21 of 19 targets - 1/2 of 38)

Starters - Hankins, Barria, Oiler, Burns, Gomez, maybe - Scott no - Arias
Relievers - Enright, Benton, Hanner, Labaut, Miko, Misa, Wolf, Torres, Vazquez, probably, Gose, Jones, Hickman maybe Gervacio
I have 14 for sure on my list (Wolf and Torres for upside) and 3 probably, 2 maybes

Looks like I am missing a few that you had .... but I just did it quickly so people can debate and tear the list up

 

[Tondo]

Torres is the only one in this group, maybe Planez, that I would worry about. Who are your other 38 guys? I don't see much of a crunch .... (assuming we let some AAA relievers go

Just going off FanGraph list
Catchers - Lavastida and Ramirez maybe Hernandez (have protected Paz and Planchart in past but they are getting passed soon and maybe no room), Beglund?
1st/DH - Collado, Pries, Naranjo, maybe Sanquitin, Ball ????
2nd - Benjamin, Pastrano, maybe Brancho (had a few good months)
SS - Devers, Valdes
3rd - Frias, Cairo, maybe Rodriquez or Schneeman
OF - Burgus, Durango, Altunez, Gonzalez maybe Planez, Para
Here is 15 for sure and 7-8 maybes (for 21 of 19 targets - 1/2 of 38)

Starters - Hankins, Barria, Oiler, Burns, Gomez, maybe - Scott no - Arias
Relievers - Enright, Benton, Hanner, Labaut, Miko, Misa, Wolf, Torres, Vazquez, probably, Gose, Jones, Hickman maybe Gervacio
I have 14 for sure on my list (Wolf and Torres for upside) and 3 probably, 2 maybes

Looks like I am missing a few that you had .... but I just did it quickly so people can debate and tear the list up

I did count Sabrowski (who was a R5 pick and did good in AFL) and Delgado too, Gervacio too.

I have 21 position players (only 2 C). Did count K. Holland because he had his first decent season in AA and is a RHB. We will see, but some of them can't be protected

 

[BimboColesHair]

I believe we'll lose a couple in the minors phase. I come up with 40+ names worth keeping around (38 roster) and I already left out busts like Sanquintin etc.

Especially guys with only one year of control left (2018 draftees and 2017 IFA) are in danger to be left exposed and this includes K. Holland, A. Scott, Ponticelli, L. Torres, Schneemann, Delgado and even Planez

You realize more than half of those names are already protected from the minor league portion, right?

 

[petes999]

You realize more than half of those names are already protected from the minor league portion, right?

Is there an official list on who is protected in minor league portion. We always guess who may not be protected.

 

[Tondo]

You realize more than half of those names are already protected from the minor league portion, right?

I do. Didn't suggest those were all left off. Just that it's a numbers game and a couple of those can't be rostered and could be picked

 

[Criznit]

It looks like the Royals and the Rockies have each cleared a roster spot just in time to make a Rule 5 pick.

Though I do not know who, I think we are a LOCK to draft someone, assuming their "guy" is still available when their turn comes up.

 

[petes999]

Why can't we trade Straw and get a 2nd spot open. There are a few options out there for a 5th defensive OF type???? Ain't going to happen. A reliever is on tap. I would like Wilcox ... have him play the Curry role this year and then shift to AAA next year to develop as a true starter.

 

[petes999]

De los santos dbacks 3B?

in June per FG … 11th Ariz prospect
De Los Santos is barely 20 years old and already has plus-plus raw power. When a contingent of Diamondbacks prospects scrimmaged against the University of West Virginia during the spring, De Los Santos dwarfed the whole team, which was comprised entirely of players who were about his age. His peak exit velos and hard-hit rate are already comfortably plus on the big league scale and elite for a 20-year-old.

But De Los Santos isn’t a good baseball player right now. He’s a butcher on defense, chase-prone at the plate, and his swing this year looks incredibly unnatural and disconnected. De Los Santos’ in-the-box footwork is not well-timed. His weight can start to drift to his front side very early and leave him helpless to adjust to secondary pitches out of hand. This is true despite De Los Santos using a comically simple stride, one that arguably dilutes his explosivity. He has the power to do damage even with a minimalistic operation, and it makes sense to try to keep things simple to help Deyvison’s hit tool play, but it just isn’t working. When he does make contact, it’s often on the ground, so there are power actualization hurdles to overcome on top of everything else. He’s struggling very badly on both sides of the ball at Amarillo so far in 2023.

The D-backs shouldn’t stop playing him at third base. It’s not like this guy’s kicking down the door with his bat, tempting you to DH him and call it a day. Even if he makes adjustments over time, it’s unlikely he’ll fix everything, and his profile will have some room to breath if he can play an actual position. There are a lot of Quad-A hitter traits happening here, but there’s too much power at such a young age to dismiss De Los Santos as a prospect. I’d be scared to trade him, especially at this stage when the D-backs would be selling extremely low, because if things click for him even part of the way, he’s going to hit 30 bombs.

 

[petes999]

no one lost