Cleveland Guardians Offseason Discussion 2021-22

[Mott the Hoople]

As we wait for ST, here is another FanGraph ZIP simulation / predictions for next year. Hey, we got 2nd place in division 78-84 10GB but 9th place for playoff teams (in 6/7 team bracket) -- 2GB of 7th/8th place AL West teams at 81-81. Those 2 West teams includes Oakland who will probably continue its sell off after CBA freeze is lifted.

From FanGraphs...

ZiPS Projections – American League Central

Team	W	L	GB	Pct	Div%	WC%	Playoff%	WS Win%
Chicago White Sox	88	74	—	.543	70.7%	4.2%	74.8%	8.0%
Cleveland Guardians	78	84	10	.481	12.0%	5.5%	17.5%	1.3%
Detroit Tigers	76	86	12	.469	6.9%	3.5%	10.4%	0.7%
Minnesota Twins	75	87	13	.463	5.9%	2.9%	8.8%	0.6%
Kansas City Royals	74	88	14	.457	4.5%	2.2%	6.7%	0.4%

The Central projects similarly to last year, with two clear tiers: the White Sox and everyone else. Right now, there’s no particular reason to expect Chicago to do anything but coast to the divisional title, with the usual caveats for injuries and the like.

Any projection during a lockout isn't worth anything. Before the lockout a few teams were able to beat the clock and sign a few FA. But no trades. It will be hard to take any projection seriously until a few days before the season starts.

 

[macbdog]

Not sure what to make of this...

It just means all those double super secret negotiations going on all of December were so fruitful that just the hardest stuff is left to hash, and the immediate interjection of a federal mediator will put it over the top. The end is in sight!!!!

 

[sportscoach]

Not sure what to make of this...

Yikes.

It couldn't hurt.

I wonder if this means they understand they have to get a deal done quickly, but they are too far apart right now to do in time, so adding in a third party to essentially find the middle grounds/compromises so they get it done in time?

 

[BimboColesHair]

Yeah, a mediator is a straight PR move that will piss off the MLBPA.

This changes nothing, but now the MLB has one less card to throw down and pissed off the MLBPA in the process.

 

[Gson]

Yeah, a mediator is a straight PR move that will piss off the MLBPA.

This changes nothing, but now the MLB has one less card to throw down and pissed off the MLBPA in the process.

In the event of an unfavorable compromise on any issue by either side, they have a "new" target to lash out at..

iow.. when in doubt.. blame the government..

btw.. IF the mediator has no authority to bind the two sides.. then the request for a mediator is nothing more than a distraction..

 

[CATS44]

If its really merely a PR stunt, and Im leaning towards looking it that way, the MLBPA should agree to it, but with two stipulations:

1) The owners open their books.
2) The mediation is binding.

Obviously, neither stipulation has any chance of being agreed to, but the PR battle in this maneuver would be won by the MLBPA.

Anybody that thought that both sides were fully aware of the damage these negotiations would do to baseball. ..and actually CARED....should be thoroughly disabused of that notion by now.

 

[Criznit]

Though it could be an extremely risky gambit, the MLBPA agreeing to mediation under the condition the result being binding would be one helluva way to lob the hot potato back to the other side....

This isn't overly surprising, has happened before and nothing much should come of this.... Maybe MLB is hoping an arbiter can help identify/solidify areas where agreements can be reached.. But who knows....

IMO - the players are "winning".. at least for now.

 

[Steve_424]

Though it could be an extremely risky gambit, the MLBPA agreeing to mediation under the condition the result being binding would be one helluva way to lob the hot potato back to the other side....

This isn't overly surprising, has happened before and nothing much should come of this.... Maybe MLB is hoping an arbiter can help identify/solidify areas where agreements can be reached.. But who knows....

IMO - the players are "winning".. at least for now.

IMO nobody is winning, at least from a PR perspective.

 

[BimboColesHair]

IMO nobody is winning, at least from a PR perspective.

Yup. And really, this delays regular season games and everyone is a loser.

Owners, players, fans, team/stadium employees, hotdog vendors. Everyone.

 

[sportscoach]

Yup. And really, this delays regular season games and everyone is a loser.

Owners, players, fans, team/stadium employees, hotdog vendors. Everyone.

Especially you cause you sell those all those dollar dogs! You cannot make a profit unless you sell lots and lots and if there isn't lots of people to sell too, no dollar dog days for anyone!!!! MLB and MLBPA get this done now so we don't lose our dollar dogs!!!!

 

[Criznit]

IMO the players appear to have shown more of a willingness to work out a deal so far.

 

[Gson]

IMO the players appear to have shown more of a willingness to work out a deal so far.

by rejecting federal mediation.. I don't think so..

 

[Criznit]

by rejecting federal mediation.. I don't think so..

If the federal mediation had any teeth then maybe, but this was a PR stunt.

 

[LL3]

IMO the players appear to have shown more of a willingness to work out a deal so far.

I feel like/am assuming far more work, and even negotiation. is going on behind the scenes than anything we see reported....all the public "disclosure" seems to be about optics and positioning. The players may indeed be more willing to work out a deal, but nothing I have seen or read to this point sways me one way or another...we are not privy to much.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I feel like/am assuming far more work, and even negotiation. is going on behind the scenes than anything we see reported....all the public "disclosure" seems to be about optics and positioning. The players may indeed be more willing to work out a deal, but nothing I have seen or read to this point sways me one way or another...we are not privy to much.

Yes...

I've been saying as much for almost 2 months now, because it is. All of the small stuff has been hammered out, most of the slightly contentious items (universal DH, economic advancement packages, future branding initiatives, etc.) are all hammered out. That stuff happens behind closed doors and in the dark and doesn't see the light of day because it isn't newsworthy.

Also, one group had agreed with the other group to bring a counterproposal to the table and on the day that counterproposal was to be presented the group instead dropped a mediator on the other group.

Also, the main thing to keep in mind in this entire thing...when the CBA expired the MLB/owners did not have to lockout the players. The CBA could have been renegotiated without a lockout. The owners chose to lockout the players.

If you aren't swayed one way or the other while one side locked the other group out from hour 1 when they didn't have to and has thrown PR move after PR move out against the other instead of negotiating at the table in good faith, then their PR moves are working hahahaha.