Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

[kriegs]

Collin isn't going to love his contract regardless of where he ends up at this point. It's up to him to be a professional and own his performance rather than place the blame elsewhere (ex. Noel situation). May as well take a short deal with us and prove his worth by approaching this season assertively. The injury came at a horrible time for him so he shouldn't be surprised or disappointed with the market. Just have to get out there and get after the bag.

It's wrong of us to assume he'd approach it any other way

 

[CavsKermit]

True. But there were people here who didn't even want him back. They thought his poor performance towards the end of the season were a precursor to what he would become. Others saw him as too one dimensional. They thought Koby overpaid by a lot.

One thing fans struggle with is the idea that their preferred playing styles might not result in wins. Some fans want to build around what pleases them aesthetically. I loved watching Dion Waiters' game, but the Cavs were just a better team with JR and Shump.

 

[dark2332]

There's no indication the Cavs are doing that. None at all. The only time they ever pulled an offer was with Hayward and that's because LBJ wanted to come back.

I suspect their last offer was more than fair and it's still on the table. Where it gets tricky is if the Cavs last offer is Sexton's best offer and he refuses to take it as summer draws to a close. If he's going to be resentful and angry playing on $15-17M, if he's going to demand a trade if he's not named a starter, then the Cavs need to think about whether they'd rather have him be upset on someone else's roster.

A big part of an agent's job is managing client expectations when the market won't meet them, and I'm not sure Klutch recognizes that.

This—Klutch is notoriously unrealistic with their clients. They pump them up, tell them they are worth max contracts, and when that simply isn’t true, they backseat those players within their agency.

They need to do a better job of looking out for each player’s longterm best interests.

I would imagine Sexton not signing yet isn’t due to the Cavs lowballing, even though they could since there is absolutely no market. It’s because it’s Klutch, and Klutch isn’t going to be honest with the young man and tell him this is going to be a good contract for you to stay where you want to be.

It’s been less than a week, so this is normal. What isn’t normal is that Klutch will do this dog and pony show all summer. That’s fine—I understand the patience and I personally would rather sign-and-trade Sexton for roster reasons.

It makes sense to wait for the league year to officially begin, all of the transactions to go through. Sometimes teams may approach as their rosters officially change.

However, we’ll see when August hits and he’s still holding out pre-camp, missing various team activities, the Cavs decide to move on, and he’s left in a situation he doesn’t want to be in. No one ever points the finger at Klutch.

 

[Lyuokdea]

How many of the Restricted Free Agents have agreed thus far?

Bagley and Simons have, Ayton and Bridges (extenuating circumstances) have not... I don't think anybody else is really in Sexton's class....

 

[Mr. MacPhisto]

Two words... Greg Munroe...

Since there is a back and forth here, to summarize:

+ Sexton would eventually accept something like 3 yr $55M, if nothing else comes his way (maybe $50M, maybe $60M, but something in that ballpark).

+ Sexton would play on the qualifying offer rather than take a contract like 3yr $36M --- the EV on his future contract is just way, way, higher than that.

+ I don't know whether he would take insurance out on his future contract or not -- but that is a thing that exists, and it would probably cost him about $3M, give or take, to ensure that he receives at least $60M in case of injury. That is consistent with both the actual probability that he has a career ending injury, as well as what previous athlete insurance polices have looked like.

+ A lot of people don't understand how insurance works, including (1) $60M in insurance is absolutely nothing to a large insurance company, (2) many more things (including athletes) are insured than you realize, (3) the margins are much smaller on individual contracts than you realize, insurance companies win by having lots of clients with small margins, not by demanding outrageous margins like $10M for a $60M contract.

It’s going to be more than $3M. Raw probability is not the only factor. Insurance is all about risk and adding buffer to the risk. Part of that is because insurance policies are often reinsured to minimize risk. Term also plays into it. Insuring himself for one year would definitely be cheaper than doing it for multiple years. $60M would cost a lot because and insurer want to hedge and will want reinsurance. I would guess it would be at least a 10:1 number. I invest in the insurance industry with companies like Allianz. I doubt a $60M policy for one year would cost less than $6M dollars with prior injury history. And any little issues on a physical would throw it all off.

 

[CavsKermit]

How many of the Restricted Free Agents have agreed thus far?

Bagley and Simons have, Ayton and Bridges (extenuating circumstances) have not... I don't think anybody else is really in Sexton's class....

The Hornets pulled Bridges Q.O. He's no longer restricted.

 

[mds]

Are we the only fan base that discusses insurance and passport status?

 

[cavsfever]

It's not $60M on the next contract - it's $60M in lifetime earnings... that is way way below his expectation.

Where are all the insurance companies offering to guarantee me $2 million (below my expected lifetime earnings as an educated male!) in exchange for a 5%/$100k down payment? According to your theory they must be everywhere! I’d be there tomorrow for that deal! Or do they only make this amazing offer to professional athletes LOL?

 

[Lyuokdea]

Where are all the insurance companies offering to guarantee me $2 million (below my expected lifetime earnings as an educated male!) in exchange for a 5%/$100k down payment? According to your theory they must be everywhere! I’d be there tomorrow for that deal! Or do they only make this amazing offer to professional athletes LOL?

Ok, I know I promised that I would stop .... but what do you think disability insurance is?

I just checked, it would currently cost me $67/month to get $1.3M (paid out over 30 years) if I became unable to do my job.

 

[cavsfever]

Ok, I know I promised that I would stop .... but what do you think disability insurance is?

I just checked, it would currently cost me $67/month to get $1.3M (paid out over 30 years) if I became unable to do my job.

ok fair enough -- but that's insurance for *physical disability*. It in no way insures you against a future failure to get a particular salary when you're healthy. So it's not a salary guarantee, it's compensation for an injury. I agree that Sexton could get injury/disability insurance, it's like surgeons insuring their hands or whatever.

 

[mds]

Guys, I have a home, a car, and a boat. Do you know of a place I can get bundle insurance?

 

[Lyuokdea]

ok fair enough -- but that's insurance for *physical disability*. It in no way insures you against a future failure to get a particular salary when you're healthy. So it's not a salary guarantee, it's compensation for an injury. I agree that Sexton could get injury/disability insurance, it's like surgeons insuring their hands or whatever.

Yes, exactly - that's been what nearly every post I've made was about, e.g.:

$40M in lifetime earnings against injury... not "Guarantee that my next contract is $40M"

+ I don't know whether he would take insurance out on his future contract or not -- but that is a thing that exists, and it would probably cost him about $3M, give or take, to ensure that he receives at least $60M in case of injury.

In 2021 Schröder wanted the German Government to pay a $100M injury insurance if he played in the Olympics.

The amount you get paid out -- of course, depends on your salary. I could get 1.3M because of what my current salary is, but if it doubled, they would give me 2.6M (for a higher premium). For Sexton, total injury insurance at $60M seems very reasonable (though it would cost a lot more than $67/month both because of the high payout, and because his job is more dangerous). Something around $3M seems reasonably correct (though I would guess on the high side, to be honest).

And with that. I will stop talking about this for good - sorry for using everybody's time.

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

One thing fans struggle with is the idea that their preferred playing styles might not result in wins. Some fans want to build around what pleases them aesthetically. I loved watching Dion Waiters' game, but the Cavs were just a better team with JR and Shump.

I can’t imagine someone calling Dion Waiters an aesthetically pleasing basketball player.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Getting back on track... Here is Jordan Clarkson's contract with the Jazz after they traded for him:

Jordan Clarkson

Jordan Clarkson contract and salary cap details, contract breakdowns, dead money, and news.

www.spotrac.com

IMHO, they have the same skillset. We traded Clarkson because they are basically the same guy and couldn't share the court. Klutch and the front office should look to this deal as a guideline.

 

[Swuul]

Lauri and his camp wanted $20M per and couldn't find it, not even in a S&T.

This rumour comes up every now and then, and it is still blatantly false. Lauri wanted from Bulls either 52-55mio/3years or 65-70mio/4years. Bulls offered him 33mio/3 years with the 3rd year being TO. After it was apparent the gap was way too big for sane negotiations, Lauri and Bulls agreed they both would be looking for S&T options

Cavs offered him what he had been asking for from Bulls, and the deal was struck very fast (in a couple days from the first contact, as far as I have heard).