Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

[Derek]

Exactly, many athletes have these (you just don't hear about them unless they are used). This gives athletes considerable freedom to take things like QOs if a team is low-balling a long-term offer.

Except the policy would likely be for far less than the numbers you’ve thrown round.

If he asked them to insure him for $40 million after he turns down $40 million, they’d laugh him right out of the room.

 

[Lyuokdea]

Except the policy would likely be for far less than the numbers you’ve thrown round.

If he asked them to insure him for $40 million after he turns down $40 million, they’d laugh him right out of the room.

$40M in lifetime earnings against injury... not "Guarantee that my next contract is $40M"

Look at the Anthony Kim scenario that you just quoted: his injury exemption was "$10-20M", which is more money than he had ever won on the tour up to that point.

It's about his expectation value of future earnings (which is probably in the $200M range at this point), it is not about what the next contract is.

 

[Derek]

$40M in lifetime earnings against injury... not "Guarantee that my next contract is $40M"

Look at the Anthony Kim scenario that you just quoted: his injury exemption was "$10-20M", which is more money than he had ever won on the tour up to that point.

It's about his expectation value of future earnings (which is probably in the $200M range at this point), it is not about what the next contract is.

Sorry, not trying to be a dick, but you’re way off on this.

If it worked the way you’re describing, nobody would sign long-term contracts.

 

[Lyuokdea]

Sorry, not trying to be a dick, but you’re way off on this.

Explain to me how a sophmore NCAA Quarterback can get a $20M injury guarantee that costs roughly $160k (those are the numbers ESPN gives), but an NBA player (who has already made $20M, plays in a league that pays way more money, and importantly, in a league where career ending injuries are much less common), can't get a $60M injury guarantee.

It is not about the next contract, it is about the expectation of his lifetime earnings (just like it was for Anthony Kim, or any NCAA quarterback who has earned $0 thus far). The expectation on Collin Sexton's future NBA earnings is far in excess of $60M.

 

[Douglar]

Explain to me how a sophmore NCAA Quarterback can get a $20M injury guarantee that costs roughly $160k (those are the numbers ESPN gives), but an NBA player (who has already made $20M, plays in a league that pays way more money, and importantly, in a league where career ending injuries are much less common), can't get a $60M injury guarantee.

It is not about the next contract, it is about the expectation of his lifetime earnings (just like it was for Anthony Kim, or any NCAA quarterback who has earned $0 thus far). The expectation on Collin Sexton's future NBA earnings is far in excess of $60M.

There was this post-- https://realcavsfans.com/index.php?threads/collin-sexton-the-young-bull.49057/page-839#post-3837852

This type of insurance...it's a pretty complicated world. Both articles you linked talk about how the payout amount is hardly ever fully paid out even in the event of an injury. As a matter of fact, the CBS article seems to be about how these college athletes are being exploited by insurance companies knowing they will never have to fully pay out the policies. And the ESPN article talks about how these policies are capped out at a fraction of expected future earnings.​

But you are pooping on this thread. You have turned a basketball thread into a debate about a type of hypothetical insurance that doesn't exist in the real world as far as anyone knows.

 

[Lyuokdea]

Wait, here is an article that talks numbers:

In 2021 Schröder wanted the German Government to pay a $100M injury insurance if he played in the Olympics. Germany only offered $10M in insurance, and thus he declined to play:

Lakers news: Dennis Schroder may take bold risk ahead of free agency

Dennis Schroder may attempt to play for Germany in the Tokyo Olympics ahead of unrestricted free agency, where he hopes to land a $100+ million contract.

clutchpoints.com

The insurance you can get for a 23yo Collin Sexton is >> The insurance you could get for a 27yo Dennis Schroder.

 

[Lyuokdea]

There was this post-- https://realcavsfans.com/index.php?threads/collin-sexton-the-young-bull.49057/page-839#post-3837852

But you are pooping on this thread. You have turned a basketball thread into a debate about a type of hypothetical insurance that doesn't exist in the real world as far as anyone knows.

Fine, I will stop.. But this does exist and is common - there's just no reason for insurance companies or players to brag about the numbers.

 

[CavsKermit]

True, but this is looking very similar to the Bulls situation with Markkanen last summer. The differences being Markkanen is a 7’ who can shoot the ball while Sexton is an undersized SG. Additionally, the Cavs actually want Sexton back.

Lauri didn’t wanted to go back to Chicago and Collin is very open to coming back to Cleveland. This likely won’t be resolved anytime soon, which is why I still think this ends with Collin signing the QO.

Lauri and his camp wanted $20M per and couldn't find it, not even in a S&T.

 

[buzzdog]

I disagree with posters here who think we should squeeze Sexton for every last dollar. I don't think the Cavs should overpay him either. But the Cavs should make an offer in line with where they placed his value before the injury, adjusted downwards to account for the injury and the current lack of a market. Just because the team could possibly squeeze him down to $12 mil/year doesn't mean that's what they should do if they actually believe everything they've said about Sexton in the last year. They should make an offer that keeps them out of the luxury tax, and anything in the $15-$17 mil/year range makes it a tradable contract. They shouldn't hardball him for every last penny the way people seem to be proposing here.

 

[CavsKermit]

I disagree with posters here who think we should squeeze Sexton for every last dollar. I don't think the Cavs should overpay him either. But the Cavs should make an offer in line with where they placed his value before the injury, adjusted downwards to account for the injury and the current lack of a market. Just because the team could possibly squeeze him down to $12 mil/year doesn't mean that's what they should do if they actually believe everything they've said about Sexton in the last year. They should make an offer that keeps them out of the luxury tax, and anything in the $15-$17 mil/year range makes it a tradable contract. They shouldn't hardball him for every last penny the way people seem to be proposing here.

There's no indication the Cavs are doing that. None at all. The only time they ever pulled an offer was with Hayward and that's because LBJ wanted to come back.

I suspect their last offer was more than fair and it's still on the table. Where it gets tricky is if the Cavs last offer is Sexton's best offer and he refuses to take it as summer draws to a close. If he's going to be resentful and angry playing on $15-17M, if he's going to demand a trade if he's not named a starter, then the Cavs need to think about whether they'd rather have him be upset on someone else's roster.

A big part of an agent's job is managing client expectations when the market won't meet them, and I'm not sure Klutch recognizes that.

 

[bs80]

I disagree with posters here who think we should squeeze Sexton for every last dollar. I don't think the Cavs should overpay him either. But the Cavs should make an offer in line with where they placed his value before the injury, adjusted downwards to account for the injury and the current lack of a market. Just because the team could possibly squeeze him down to $12 mil/year doesn't mean that's what they should do if they actually believe everything they've said about Sexton in the last year. They should make an offer that keeps them out of the luxury tax, and anything in the $15-$17 mil/year range makes it a tradable contract. They shouldn't hardball him for every last penny the way people seem to be proposing here.

I agree with you wholeheartedly on not squeezing Sexton just because they can. A year ago, we had the opportunity to squeeze Jarrett Allen but the team made JA a reasonable offer in good faith. At the time, many here thought it was an overpay. If Koby played hardball, he probably could've shaved $1 or 2 mil off of the $20 mil AAV deal. Instead, JA felt appreciated, loves his team, worked his fucking ass off, and turned that perceived overpay into a bargain.

With Sexton, the situation is slightly different in that I think the team and Collin are not on the same page in terms of valuation. But if the Cavs are willing to bring him back at 16 or 17 per year, so long as they stay out of the tax, I hope they don't leverage the situation so much as to piss off Collin and his camp.

If Koby wanted to play this like a cutthroat businessman, he might be able to get Collin back at something stupid cheap like 13 per year, or even squeeze so hard that Collin ends up going with the QO. But how does the risk/reward of such a move look? Keep an extra 3-4M in cap space for next season? Would that really move the needle that much? Would Sexton be THAT much more tradeable at 13 per year? I just don't think it's worth it.

 

[buzzdog]

I agree with you wholeheartedly on not squeezing Sexton just because they can. A year ago, we had the opportunity to squeeze Jarrett Allen but the team made JA a reasonable offer in good faith. At the time, many here thought it was an overpay. If Koby played hardball, he probably could've shaved $1 or 2 mil off of the $20 mil AAV deal. Instead, JA felt appreciated, loves his team, worked his fucking ass off, and turned that perceived overpay into a bargain.

With Sexton, the situation is slightly different in that I think the team and Collin are not on the same page in terms of valuation. But if the Cavs are willing to bring him back at 16 or 17 per year, so long as they stay out of the tax, I hope they don't leverage the situation so much as to piss off Collin and his camp.

If Koby wanted to play this like a cutthroat businessman, he might be able to get Collin back at something stupid cheap like 13 per year, or even squeeze so hard that Collin ends up going with the QO. But how does the risk/reward of such a move look? Keep an extra 3-4M in cap space for next season? Would that really move the needle that much? Would Sexton be THAT much more tradeable at 13 per year? I just don't think it's worth it.

Excellent comment. I agree 100%.

There's no indication the Cavs are doing that. None at all. The only time they ever pulled an offer was with Hayward and that's because LBJ wanted to come back.

I suspect their last offer was more than fair and it's still on the table. Where it gets tricky is if the Cavs last offer is Sexton's best offer and he refuses to take it as summer draws to a close. If he's going to be resentful and angry playing on $15-17M, if he's going to demand a trade if he's not named a starter, then the Cavs need to think about whether they'd rather have him be upset on someone else's roster.

A big part of an agent's job is managing client expectations when the market won't meet them, and I'm not sure Klutch recognizes that.

I hope you're right. My commentary was aimed at the fans in this thread who seem to want to squeeze every last blood out of the rock at every opportunity. That is bad business strategy in the current NBA. As bs80 pointed out, most of the people here thought the JA contract was an overpay, and many didn't even see his value as a player because he's not a three point shooting big. I think his signing was a huge factor in the overall team attitude and success. I think signing Sexton at the right salary could continue this kind of momentum.

OTOH if Sexton somehow has unrealistic salary expectations, and refuses what would be considered a reasonable offer by reasonable people, then I guess he can play for the Q.O. or sit out. Given the current market for his services, he should be more than happy to accept something in the $15-$17 mil/year range for 2-3 years. He could re-establish himself as an asset, and be eligible for a new contract at age 25 or 26 while securing his financial stability right now. Hopefully Sexton is smart enough to see this (I think he is) and Klutch hasn't deluded him into thinking otherwise the way they have with previous clients.

 

[CavsKermit]

Excellent comment. I agree 100%.

I hope you're right. My commentary was aimed at the fans in this thread who seem to want to squeeze every last blood out of the rock at every opportunity. That is bad business strategy in the current NBA. As bs80 pointed out, most of the people here thought the JA contract was an overpay, and many didn't even see his value as a player because he's not a three point shooting big. I think his signing was a huge factor in the overall team attitude and success. I think signing Sexton at the right salary could continue this kind of momentum.

OTOH if Sexton somehow has unrealistic salary expectations, and refuses what would be considered a reasonable offer by reasonable people, then I guess he can play for the Q.O. or sit out. Given the current market for his services, he should be more than happy to accept something in the $15-$17 mil/year range for 2-3 years. He could re-establish himself as an asset, and be eligible for a new contract at age 25 or 26 while securing his financial stability right now. Hopefully Sexton is smart enough to see this (I think he is) and Klutch hasn't deluded him into thinking otherwise the way they have with previous clients.

Allen would've gotten multiple offers in the $18-22M range had the Cavs let him test the market. He also would've probably gotten a 4 year deal with a P.O. in that 4th year. Two-way centers who can give you an uber efficient 16 points and anchor a defense are valuable.

 

[Lyuokdea]

Would Sexton be THAT much more tradeable at 13 per year?

Should also add in that basically any player in the NBA can tank their trade value by demanding to be traded.

 

[buzzdog]

Allen would've gotten multiple offers in the $18-22M range had the Cavs let him test the market. He also would've probably gotten a 4 year deal with a P.O. in that 4th year. Two-way centers who can give you an uber efficient 16 points and anchor a defense are valuable.

True. But there were people here who didn't even want him back. They thought his poor performance towards the end of the season were a precursor to what he would become. Others saw him as too one dimensional. They thought Koby overpaid by a lot.